Azerbaijan is rapidly approaching the United States and NATO as Washington shifts its geopolitical attention from the Russian-Ukrainian war to the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s expanding military, political and strategic cooperation with the West risks turning the region into a new center of geopolitical confrontation with the participation of Russia, Iran …
Read More »L’Azerbaïdjan risque de se retrouver sur une trajectoire de collision avec la Russie, à l’instar de l’Ukraine
L’adhésion officieuse de l’Azerbaïdjan à l’OTAN, via sa conformité aux normes du bloc et son alliance avec la Turquie, s’est désormais étendue à une alliance de facto avec l’Ukraine, ce qui accroît naturellement l’évaluation de la menace que représente l’Azerbaïdjan pour la Russie. La Russie et l’Azerbaïdjan sont parvenus à …
Read More »Wheels Down in Tbilisi: Was a Routine U.S. Military Stopover a Deliberate Signal to Iran?
A brief and poorly explained landing of a U.S. military transport aircraft in Tbilisi at the end of March 2026 has become a subject of discussion and speculation about its real significance, fueling suspicions that more complex geopolitical signals may lie behind the official explanation of a “routine flight.” Let’s …
Read More »Can Turkey Cut the Gordian Knot in the Caucasus?
Turkey seeks to position itself as a key peacemaker and regional hub in the South Caucasus. To achieve this, Ankara should move beyond nationalist rhetoric toward a more pragmatic, strategic approach rooted in the international legal order. Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey relations resemble the proverbial Gordian knot—the famous tangled rope in an ancient …
Read More »How Turkey Can Help the Economies of the South Caucasus to Diversify
Over the past two decades, regional collaboration in the South Caucasus has intensified. Turkey and the EU should establish a cooperation framework to accelerate economic development and diversification. Russia’s declining influence in the South Caucasus since the start of the war in Ukraine has opened a window of opportunity to …
Read More »Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of Connectivity
The U.S.-sponsored TRIPP deal is driving the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process forward. But foreign and domestic hurdles remain before connectivity and economic interdependence can open up the South Caucasus. For more than three decades, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has exerted human, economic, and political tolls on both countries. In 2026, thanks to …
Read More »The Gulf Conflict and the South Caucasus
In an interview, Sergei Melkonian discusses Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s careful balancing act among the United States, Israel, and Iran. Armenak Tokmajyan: How have Armenia and Azerbaijan responded so far to the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, given their need to maintain good working relations with their large neighbor while avoiding antagonizing …
Read More »L’Arménie, le corridor du Zangezour et les équilibres dans le Caucase
2026 pourrait être une année déterminante pour l’avenir de l’Arménie, et ce n’est pas une figure de style mais la réalité d’un pays qui, après la perte définitive de l’Artsakh et la purification ethnique qui s’est achevée dans cette région historiquement arménienne, se trouve aujourd’hui à négocier non pas la …
Read More »La nouvelle initiative américaine dans le Caucase et ses répercussions sur l’Europe
Les États-Unis ne se retirent pas réellement des scènes stratégiques : ils modifient leur approche. Si l’intervention directe semble aujourd’hui plus coûteuse et risquée, il reste des outils tels que l’influence politique, les alliances ciblées, la présence militaire sélective et le contrôle des infrastructures clés. C’est dans cette logique qu’il …
Read More »Vance Visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan Signals U.S. Push Into Region Dominated by Russia
The U.S. is using diplomatic and economic carrots to project influence in a region that Russia has long regarded as its backyard. Vice President JD Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan from February 9 to 11, making him the highest-level U.S. official to visit either country. The trip signaled a sharper …
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