With the new year less than two weeks away, a range of geopolitical and security trends demand close attention. From the potential resumption of war between Israel and Iran to evolving dynamics in multiple hotspots, a host of unresolved variables is poised to shape the Middle East’s trajectory in 2026. …
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Post-deadline scenarios
Damascus and the SDF: Rescheduling March 10 or Escalation?
With the deadline for the March 10 agreement expiring at the end of 2025, its provisions remain on hold. Neither side has implemented any of them, and both have traded accusations over delays and obstruction in recent months, without reaching concrete steps to move the agreement forward Despite repeated meetings …
Read More »Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2026
Toplines Russian officials accused Ukraine of conducting a strike against a hotel and cafe in occupied Khorly, Kherson Oblast, that reportedly killed at least 28 people and injured at least 50, and called for the intensification of Russia’s war efforts, including its campaign of strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.[1] Russian …
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