Spot analysis from Carnegie scholars on events relating to the Middle East and North Africa. What Happened? In the aftermath of the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, much of Lebanon held its breath, worried that this would lead to a significant escalation …

Several factors, including the need to avoid being diverted from Gaza, suggest that Israel benefits little from widening the conflict northwards. Predictions have increased that the daily exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah across the Lebanese-Israeli border, which have been ongoing since the October 7 Hamas attack, may escalate …

Over the past decade, the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Middle East has insinuated itself into nearly every regional issue, fracturing international alliances and sustaining wars across the region, while raising fears of a direct conflict between the two powers that could involve the United …