As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its third year, Ukraine’s growing offensive capabilities have forced the Russian military to work harder to protect its assets, including its battered Black Sea Fleet (BSF) (see EDM, November 8, 2022, March 11, 26, August 13 [1], [2], 2024). Media reports indicate that Russia …

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though …

The anxiety among the broader elite caused by the Defense Ministry purge has been intensified by the fact that newly available rent flows have been divided up among different elite groups. The biggest source of tension within the Russian elites in 2024 was the purge of the Defense Ministry. Defense …