As the war in Ukraine unfolds, global uncertainty has surged, according to the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure across 143 countries. This increase is a bad sign for growth. Our research finds that such increases foreshadow significant output declines. Based on our estimates, the rise in …

The war in Ukraine has damaged the reputation of Russian arms. Heavy armor has proved especially vulnerable, but other weapons have also not performed to standard. The future, moreover, is bleak. Due to crushing Western sanctions, Russia’s defense technological and industrial base, which is already plagued by debt, will now …

Authorities in self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh have spoken out against the Armenian government for signaling a willingness to make concessions that would allow Azerbaijan to regain control over the territory. “Any attempt to incorporate Artsakh into Azerbaijan would lead to bloodshed and the destruction of Artsakh,” said Davit Babayan, the de facto …