Similar to the trajectory followed by al-Qaeda a decade ago, the Islamic State is shifting focus from its core organization to regional affiliates. Even where Islamic State affiliates have been weakened, changing conflict dynamics could reenergize franchise groups at various points this year.

The recent killing of Islamic State’s top leader in Iraq should not be seen as a crippling sign for the terror group, which has in recent months received fresh recruits and increased its attacks in the country, says a senior Iraqi Kurdish military official.

Diminished by law enforcement and military operations and the COVID-19 pandemic, ISIS and Al-Qaeda now act through affiliates in local conflicts. The rise of white supremacy and anti-government violent extremism will require greater attention from counterterrorism actors.