President Trump declared the “dawn of a new Middle East” as he oversaw the signing of pacts between Israel and two Arab nations, an event he hopes will pave the way for increased stability in a volatile region and cast him as a peacemaker ahead of November’s election.

It has been clear for some time that the United States should do less in the Middle East, despite the attendant risks and costs—a case that we made in these pages last year (“America’s Middle East Purgatory,” January/February 2019). At the time, some welcomed this argument; others balked at it. …

A line in the sublime Hilary Mantel trilogy of Henry VIII’s fixer, Thomas Cromwell, perfectly encapsulates the highest aspirations of the political risk profession. The goal must be always to “Study the world without despising it. Understand the world without rejecting it. Have no illusions, but have hopes. Do not …