Bush to crank up message machine on dangers of Iraq withdrawal

WASHINGTON (AFP) — President George W. Bush will this week attempt to rally Americans wavering on Iraq, as senior aides warn a quick exit for US troops could sow a deadly harvest of future terror attacks on US soil.
Officials say Bush will give a “significant” speech on Thursday, the latest shot in a volley of addresses on Iraq by top administration figures ahead of a referendum on Iraq’s draft constitution on October 15.

Faced with raging violence in Iraq, a US death toll fast approaching 2,000 troops and rising domestic angst over the course of the war, the Bush national security team is telling Americans that now is not the time to quit.

They compare post-Saddam Hussein Iraq to failed-state Afghanistan, an anarchic swamp where terrorism found a home, and Al-Qaeda plotted the September 11 terror attacks in 2001.

Bush aides have argued for months it is better to fight the “terrorists” like Al-Qaeda frontman Abu Mussab Zarqawi, in Iraq, than on American streets after another devastating terror attack.

Critics, including last year’s failed presidential candidate John Kerry, see the war in Iraq as a diversion from the real enemy — Al Qaeda and Osama Ben Laden — and dismiss the president’s rationale as simplistic.

But for Bush, the US invasion, occupation and bid to introduce democracy in Iraq represents a central front of the “war on terror.”

The administration is now bolstering that warning by fleshing out what they see as the perils in leaving before enough Iraqi troops can be trained to enforce security.

“If we quit now, we will abandon Iraq’s democrats at the time of greatest need,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a major speech on Friday at Princeton University.

“If we abandon future generations in the Middle East to despair and terror, we also condemn future generations in the United States to insecurity and fear.”

A senior Bush administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to explain the latest White House thinking on Iraq, argued that an early exit from Iraq would leave Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia vulnerable to Al Qaeda.

“If you think by going home, you buy peace, it is wrong-headed,” said the official.

“In terms of US interests … it is a grim picture. What you are going to see from the administration generally, is an effort to try to make sure the American people understand that context.”

The official declined to offer specifics of Bush’s speech, to be delivered in the symbolic Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, which honors the man Republicans believe faced down the last grave threat to US security, the cold war.

Beset by sagging opinion polls, the White House has also cranked up a campaign to convince Americans they are winning the war.

“Americans need to know about the gains we’ve made in recent weeks and months,” Bush said on Wednesday, pleading with members of Congress to pass on evidence of success to their constituents after briefings with his top generals.

Top political and military leaders have been in lock step in the last few days. General Richard Myers, in one of his last duties Thursday before retiring as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, echoed the White House message in a congressional hearing.

“As soon as we pullout, that would embolden this Qaeda organisation, their violent extremist techniques, and surely the next 9/11 would be right around the corner,” he said.

In a rare moment of candor General George Casey, the top US commander in Iraq, told senators that only a single Iraqi battalion is capable of independent operations. Casey earlier reported to Congress that three battalions were at that level.

Casey’s boss, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, dismissed that fact on Friday as “irrelevant.”

“What’s important is that everyday, the number of Iraqi security forces are getting bigger and they’re getting better and they’re getting more experienced,” he said.

On Saturday, Bush boasted in his weekly radio address of the “increasing effectiveness” of Iraq’s security forces, but also warned of “more difficult and dangerous work” there.

Calls to bring the troops home, and opinion polls which show growing numbers of Americans believe that US forces should be withdrawn, miss the point, say Bush administration officials.

“If we leave, there will not only be no peace and the killing will not stop for America, the killing will certainly not stop for Iraqis,” the senior official said.

One problem Bush administration officials have when they say they will stay as long as it takes in Iraq is that many critics simply don’t believe them, especially after repeated assertions of progress and imminent victory.

“Things have not gone as we had planned or expected, nor as we were told by you, General Myers,” said Republican Senator John McCain, speaking at a Senate hearing this week.

“That’s why I’m very worried, because I think we have to win this conflict,” he said.