According to information sources in Sokhumi, a mobilization has been announced in Abkhazia. A correspondent statement was done by Abkhazian President Sergey Bagapsh on Friday evening. Bagapsh motivated this as an answer to current situation on the border with Georgia.
Abkhazian officials say that Georgian military forces are relocated in direction of the Abkhazian-Georgian border, but the first detachments have been brought there on Tuesday.
On Friday war maneuvers began in Abkhazia, 500 reservists having been mobilized in addition to 2000 reservists engaged. According to General Anatoly Zaytsev, Head of Abkhazia General Staff, 100 cannons and a tank battalion are used. Training firing is planned on March 4.
Mass media point out that the arrest of the Georgian became a catalyst in further complication of the Abkhazian-Georgian relations. The real reason was the wish of Abkhazians to make use of the proclamation of the independence of Kosovo.
Analyzers point out that the Abkhazians and South-Ossetians have practically no chances in case of a military conflict with Georgia. The army of South Ossetia is rather symbolic. while there are 4500 servicemen in Abkazian army plus 10000 who can be mobilized.
Information concerning Abkhazian military techniques deviates from 50 tanks, 80 cannons, 80 armored vehicles to 100 tanks, 160 cannons and 80 vehicles, all this being of old Soviet quality.
However their are 33,000 contract service-men in modernized Georgian army which posses 100 modern tanks, 200 armored vehicles, more than 100 cannons, 18 BM-21 “Grad” fire systems, 7 jet fighters, 20 helicopters, 2 missile cutters and a number of other cutters.
Therefore the single hope of Abkhazians and South-Ossetians can be the help of the Russian army only. However there are only 500 Russian “peace-keepers” in South-Ossetia, and 1800 “peace-keepers” in Abkhazia.