Is Syria’s Assad as Weak as He Appears?

It might seem like an all-too familiar story: With its economy cratered by civil war, and new pockets of anti-regime resistance, Syria is on the verge of state collapse. President Bashar al-Assad isn’t just on the back foot; he is weaker than ever. Is he about to fall?

You might have read this before—back in 2015, perhaps, before Russia intervened to save Assad. Indeed, in May 2015, I wrote about just that, as Syria’s army showed more signs of fracturing and the economy sank further. The value of Syria’s currency that month had hit a record low against the U.S. dollar: 315 pounds, and worth even less on the black market. It was about 47 pounds before the war. I noted that the collapsing currency “was the latest sign of the Assad regime’s growing troubles, as a string of rebel victories and rumors of internal discord exposed more weaknesses in the regime.”