“Potential change of government in Germany will not impact the Polish-German relations substantially”, says Agnieszka Łada-Konefał, vice-director of the German Institute of Polish Affairs in Darmstadt (Deutsches Polen-Institut in Darmstadt).
“There is room for new accents. Poland shall remain an important partner for Germany and an important EU member state, according to the Germans”, she told EURACTIV.
Łada-Konefał emphasised that the German approach towards Poland is based on a large pan-partisan consensus. “Germans need to have good relations with Poland to counterbalance their relations with France”, she said.
According to the expert, an additional reason is “the general disengagement of the Polish side”.
On Russia, Łada-Konefał said: “SPD is more pro-Russian, and the Greens are more critical towards Russia, and they will need to cooperate. The question remains if the pro-Russian Die Linke joins the coalition”.
On security and NATO, the expert noted that if Die Linke joins the government in Berlin, “it may impact German engagement in international security”.
The German party which may bring the most significant change to the relations with Poland are the Greens. They are the most critical of climate policy in Poland and the rule of law situation.
“Should the Greens control the foreign ministry, there might be an increased criticism towards Poland”, the expert said, adding that it may be moderate because once in government, the Greens are expected to tone down their rhetoric on Poland.
A similar view was shared by Hungarian analyst Dániel Hegedüs from the German Marshall Fund.
The Greens and FDP “of course are committed to liberal democratic values,” he told EURACTIV.
However, “whether that can be directly translated into German government policy when they come into the sawmill of everyday politics, then I have my doubts.”