Eurasia Press & News
Pressure is building for Serbia to strike a deal on Kosovo, but Aleksandar Vucic faces other challenges too in 2023.
Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue to cast a long shadow over Serbia well into 2023.
Still wrestling with the collective memory of being bombed by NATO in 1999, the predominantly Orthodox country has found itself squeezed between traditional ties to Russia and an official policy of pursuing European integration.
Now a decade in power, Aleksandar Vucic as president is treading a fine line between the two, voting at the United Nations to condemn Russia’s February 24 invasion but refusing to join Western sanctions on the Kremlin.
Experts expect the balancing act to continue into 2023, but pressure will build on other fronts, notably Kosovo and the cost-of-living crisis, both issues driven of late by events in Ukraine.
“The war has changed the way this part of the world is perceived,” said Dusan Spasojevic, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade. “The West is now pushing for a quicker resolution on Kosovo because of the war in Ukraine. And because of that there is a chance an agreement can be reached.”
In terms of everyday life for the average Serb, “the situation will be bad for most,” said economist Ljubomir Savic.
Inflation is stretching household finances to the limit, but unrest looks unlikely if only for the fact that no opposition political force has a foothold among the poorest.
“It will not be better in 2023,” Savic told BIRN. “I just hope it will not be worse.”
No change expected on Russia sanctions
An April election yielded a parliament featuring three right-wing political forces – NADA, Dveri and Zavetnici. They sit on the opposition benches, but in reality most of their criticism of the ruling Progressive Party focuses on its refusal to come out wholeheartedly in favour of Russia over the war in Ukraine.
The election cost the Progressives some support, but Vucic’s position remains stable.
For months, the president and pro-government media have been playing up the pressure they say he is under to fall into line with the West in imposing sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine.
As a candidate for accession to the European Union, Serbia is required to align its foreign policy with that of the bloc, but Vucic has said it would not be “natural” for Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia, its primary source of energy and chief big-power backer in opposing the independence of Kosovo. Crucially, Russia holds a veto in the UN Security Council.
According to an opinion poll conducted by the NGO CRTA and published in November, 61 per cent of people in Serbia believe the country should maintain good relations even at the cost of renouncing the EU accession process.
Support for sanctions against Russia doubled between May and October, but remains relatively low at just 19 per cent.
Some experts say Vucic’s balancing act in fact suits both him and the West – it pleases the pro-Russian majority within the Progressive base and leaves Vucic in a strong enough position to potentially strike a deal with Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.
“For almost a year we’ve been hearing how the government in Serbia is under unbearable pressure to impose sanctions on Russia, and it is never going to happen,” said political analyst Ognjen Gogic.
“This may indicate either that the pressure is not as strong as portrayed or that the Serbian government is very resistant to it. Whatever it is, there’s no indication that there will be any change” in 2023.
In late November, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on the Commission to “advance accession negotiations” with Serbia only if the country joins the EU sanctions on Russia and makes progress on EU-related reforms.
But Gogic said he doubts Vucic will buckle.
“If the West increases pressure and Serbia changes its stance, both will need to explain what changed in the war that they needed to change the approach after a whole year,” he told BIRN. “It seems that Vucic found a balance in relation to the international factor and I think that will be continued in 2023.”
Might Vucic blink on Kosovo?
Where change might come is on Kosovo, which has seen a spike in tensions between authorities in Pristina and four Serb-majority municipalities in the north.
Jolted by the war in Ukraine, the EU has shown signs of wanting to consolidate security in other parts of the continent, not least in the Balkans. France and Germany have joined forces on a proposal, which has yet to be made public, at least officially, but which reports say amounts to recognition of Kosovo by Serbia in all but name.
Spasojevic said this could prove the toughest issue for Vucic in 2023.
“In 2017 it looked like he voluntarily wanted to make some kind of agreement,” he told BIRN. Now, “he does it because he is pressured.”
Spasojevic, however, questioned what leverage the West has over Vucic, whose grip on power currently looks unbreakable.
“We expected some deal with Pristina many times in the last decade,” he said. “However, Vucic still do not have a real political alternative in the country. The opposition is disunited and weak, especially the pro-Western one.”
“Vucic’s Serbia is still not Milosevic’s Serbia, and the West cannot impose sanctions on Serbia just because the country does not want to fall into line.”
‘Huge problems’ from inflation
Officially, inflation in Serbia reached 15 per cent in November, but the cost of everyday items, including food and drink, has risen at an even faster rate, piling pressure on already impoverished Serbian families.
“Our people spend most of their money on food, so for them the stats are not relevant,” said Savic, the economist. “They lived hard before the inflation; now they are in huge problems.”
Savic said he doubted food prices would stabilise anytime soon.
“Many products are being imported from abroad,” he told BIRN. “Also, domestic producers have problems because the necessities for food production have also increased, which increases the prices of goods.”
Eurostat ranks Serbia as the fourth poorest country in Europe in terms of gross domestic product per capita and standardised individual consumption per capita, behind only Albania, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Experts, however, doubt the drop in living standards will result in unrest that might threaten the government, primarily because there is no opposition political force strong enough to channel public dissatisfaction.
“I expect that certain groups will protest along trade union lines,” said Gogic. “However, I don’t believe that the opposition parties will be able to articulate the citizens’ dissatisfaction and thereby attract new voters. The opposition is based in the middle classes, while the lower classes, which are the most numerous and the most vulnerable, favour the parties in power, which are able to cushion their dissatisfaction.”
That said, Gogic speculated that the environmental protests that rocked Serbia before the war in Ukraine may return in 2023, particularly if there are moves to revive a controversial lithium project headed by mining giant Rio Tinto.
“This showed that it has a certain mobilising potential, which led to the fact that for the first time we also have ‘greens’ in the National Parliament,” said Gogic. “The government will not abandon projects that can lead to environmental degradation, just as environmental movements will not abandon their protests.”
In December, Vucic described himself as “stupid” for calling a halt to the planned Rio Tinto mine, while Rio Tinto Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm said the same month that the company had not given up, despite the government officially calling off the project in the face of mass protests.
As BIRN previously reported, the project has some powerful backers in the EU, UK, US and Australia.
“Protests and polarisation on this issue can be expected next year as well,” said Gogic. “I think that the government will prevail because there are strong international financial interests behind it.”
