Eurasia Press & News
Elsewhere, the Czech presidential run-off looks to be going Pavel’s way; Polish Leopard tanks are finally on their way to Ukraine; and a Slovak referendum on shortening parliamentary term fails but the country will still get snap elections.
Arecently issued government decree that allows the defence minister to dismiss high-ranking military officers after 25 years of service has already been put to use, when Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky informed hundreds of officers they would be laid off. The timing and rushed implementation of the decree led to speculation the government wants to get rid of military leaders known for their NATO-loyalty and create a military more loyal to the government. Opposition politician Agnes Vadai talked about a “political purge”. However, some see the personnel changes as necessary, claiming the military has too many high-ranking, older officers, who often block the careers of younger, better-trained soldiers, who have more affinity with modern military technology. Yet given the government’s previous record, it is difficult to credit there are no political intentions in the background. Some compare the “purge” to the changing of the guard at the Foreign Ministry in 2015-16, when the professional diplomatic corps was transformed into loyal servants whose main role is to parrot government propaganda and lecture the media and foreign dignitaries.
A major scandal rocked opposition parties as it was confirmed that former PM candidate Peter Marki-Zay’s Movement for Hungary and some opposition-allied organisations received funds totalling 4 billion forints (10 million euros) from abroad before the April 2022 election. It was Marki-Zay who first spoke about the foreign donations in an interview last August, which triggered an investigation by the Hungarian intelligence services. Key parts of the report were published this week, revealing the opposition alliance received 3 billion forints from US-based Action for Democracy, a civil society organisation led by David Koranyi, former diplomatic advisor to Budapest Mayor Gergely Karacsony. Another 900 million forints was received from an unnamed Swiss foundation. Marki-Zay argued most were micro-donations, largely from Hungarians living abroad, but the intelligence services said they suspect it was the US Democratic Party behind the funding. “This clearly represents a violation of Hungary’s sovereignty, and at the same time raises the suspicion of a violation of the relevant Hungarian legislation,” the report read. Fidesz claims the opposition violated Hungarian election law that forbids foreign financing of political parties, though Marki-Zay counters it was a civil society movement (his) and not a political party that was the recipient.
This week gave a glimpse of how compromise-ready the Hungarian government can be when it meets stern resistance. Orban’s crew was seemingly taken aback by the European Commission’s decision in December to cut universities controlled by asset management foundations from the European exchange programs Erasmus and Horizon. Some 21 universities – two-thirds of all Hungary’s higher education – are now run by these foundations, which are a shrewd invention of the Fidesz government to enable the transfer of public assets to bodies controlled largely by Fidesz politicians who earn an extra 1 million forints (2,500 euros) a month. The Commission indicated in December it finds it incompatible that political leaders sit on the boards of these foundations and decide about public money going to an organisation where they are also employed. Regional Development Minister Tibor Navracsics and Justice Minister Judit Varga both hurried off to Brussels this week to solve the problem, announcing on Wednesday that Erasmus for Hungary has been saved after agreeing politicians should be withdrawn from the boards and all lifelong appointments reasonably limited. “In the first five minutes, it became obvious that both parties were open to compromise,” Navracsics said. The government-friendly media have already been celebrating Hungary’s victory, though no legislative changes have been made so far.
The general vs the billionaire; Czechs to legalise cannabis next year
Czechs will choose between a former NATO general and a billionaire populist when they vote for a new president on Friday and Saturday. The run-off between Petr Pavel and former PM Andrej Babis has consumed the headlines since each won 35 per cent of the first-round vote on January 13-14. Faced with saggy poll numbers and a largely hostile press, Babis has sought to paint his opponent – on whom the liberal democratic electorate is pinning its hopes – as a “warmonger” due to his professed support for Ukraine. However, the billionaire’s aggressive strategy left him little room for manoeuvre during the pre-election debates. Asked whether as the formal head of Czechia’s armed forces, he would honour NATO’s Article 5 to aid Poland or the Baltic States should they be attacked, he replied: “Definitely not”. Despite trying to walk back his response, it sparked international condemnation, including from Poland’s nationalist-conservative government, despite PiS being something of a natural partner for the populist. None of this has done Babis’s poll numbers much good: Pavel is enjoying a lead of at least 15 percentage points in most polls.
Czechia could legalise cannabis next year. The government plans to draft a bill to establish a regulated market ready by March, in the hope of legalising the drug by as early as 2024, said national anti-drug coordinator Jindrich Voboril. With the final format of the scheme being discussed with expert groups, the legislation should outline control over the cultivation, distribution and sale of cannabis, with users, small growers and growing associations to be registered. Billions of crowns in proceeds from licensing and taxation are envisaged, with Voboril hoping to secure some of that for state substance-abuse programs. Reports say 34 per cent of Czech adults used cannabis last year. The market – currently “established but illegal” – will be more regulated than that for tobacco, the official suggested, claiming that the likes of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are all moving in the same direction. Possession of a small quantity of cannabis was decriminalised in 2010, but its use without a prescription remains illegal.
Germany finally approve Leopards for Ukraine; German Patriots arrive
After much foot-dragging, Germany this week agreed to send 14 of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as well as approve requests by other European countries to re-export Leopards in their possession to Ukraine. The US immediately followed the German announcement with its own, that it would itself send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Ukraine has been asking for months for more offensive capacity, including advanced tanks, and military experts say at least 100 tanks are needed for Kyiv to put together a solid offensive before spring. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki thanked Germany for agreeing to send the Leopards. Poland, alongside the Baltics, had been one of the most vocal countries pressing Germany to send the tanks to Ukraine, even threatening to send the Leopards in its possession to Ukraine without any permission from Berlin. On Thursday morning, after the announcements on new tank deliveries, Russia launched a mass cruise missile barrage on Ukraine, including strikes on the capital Kyiv.
Two Patriot missile defence batteries from Germany arrived in the eastern Polish town of Zamosc this week, following a proposal of assistance with air defence that Germany made after a Ukrainian defensive missile accidentally landed in Poland, killing two, back in November. The German offer was greeted with a degree of confusion on the Polish side, with some officials welcoming it and others rejecting it. Yet with that diplomatic debacle now out of the way, Germany this week started deploying two of the three Patriots, which are part of the NATO collective defence system, to eastern Poland.
Slawomir Sierakowski, the Polish left-wing intellectual who last summer initiated a private fundraiser in Poland to buy a Bayraktar drone for Ukraine, announced this week that the drone had finally reached Ukraine and was incorporated into the army. Poles raised 50 million zloty (over 12 million euros) to buy the drone, but the Turkish producer offered it for free, saying the funds should instead be spent on humanitarian projects in Ukraine.
Referendum on shortening parliament term fails but Slovakia still to get snap elections
The referendum that took place in Slovakia on January 21 was the country’s eighth unsuccessful referendum. Citizens voted on a constitutional change that would have made it possible to shorten a parliament’s term via a referendum. Although the majority of voters agreed to the change, the low turnout – only 27.25 per cent – made the referendum invalid. For a referendum to be successful, at least 50 per cent of voters need to vote, corresponding to approximately 2.3 million citizens. President Zuzana Caputova said she respected the result.
Even so, four days after the failed referendum, an amendment to the constitution allowing the parliament to vote for early elections was approved by Slovak MPs. The OLaNO, Sme Rodina, Za Ludi and SaS parties supported the legislation proposal initiated by Maria Kolikova, a former justice minister. Under the amendment, any proposal for early elections can only be tabled if supported by at least 30 MPs, while the election can only be called if supported by at least 90 MPs in the 150-seat parliament. MPs did not support the proposal that would allow shortening the parliament’s term through a referendum.
