Eurasia Press & News
All elections in Montenegro are historic because it is part of their prevailing national personality, but this presidential election on Sunday, March 19, could really determine the fate and future of Montenegrin statehood, as well as Montenegrin cultural-ethnic identity.
According to Jutarnji list , since the parliamentary elections in 2020, in which conservative pro-Serbian-pro-Russian forces won, Montenegro has entered a “zone of political-ethnic turbulence” and instability, which has made the former smallest Yugoslav republic the biggest troublemaker in the Balkans.
Seven candidates
Seven candidates will appear in the elections. This is roughly how they were distributed: two pro-Montenegrin candidates – the eternal Milo Đukanović and Draginja Vuksanović-Stanković; three pro-Serbians – from the radical Chetnik duke Andrija Mandić, through the wavering Aleksa Bečić, to Goran Danilović from the United Montenegro; there is also a “half-pro-Serbian” civil representative, Jakov Milatović from the Europe Sad party, which won the recent elections in Podgorica; and the list of “nominees” is rounded off by an influencer who will give a certain dose of Montenegrin relaxation and casualness to these strict and decisive elections, Jovan Radulović Jodžir, as a TikTok candidate of the younger generation “who wants something for everyone”.
His jokes and skits that are “spread” on social networks have remade the region, they are often simple and on the edge of “political correctness”, which nevertheless gives him a certain simple-minded charm.
The campaign will be short and merciless, and it could also be a prelude to early parliamentary elections.
Milo Đukanović will certainly unite all pro-Montenegro forces, including those who are against him, but have nowhere to go.
But everyone thinks that these elections are dramatic because they are very important, first of all for Milo Đukanović.
All polls give him the most votes and safe passage to the second round, although he and his DPS “resisted with all their might” that it be resolved already in the first round – to show strength and strengthen pro-independence pro-Montenegro currents precisely for the parliamentary elections, but also because some polls predict that he would beat Andrija Mandić superiorly in the second round (he is currently third in the polls), while in agreement with Jakov Milatović (currently second in the polls), whose
Europe is witnessing a real explosion on the complicated Montenegrin political scene, a tense and uncertain battle could be expected, especially if Mandić’s pro-Serb and pro-Russian Democratic Front sided with Milatović.
A turning point for Milo
For Milo Đukanović, these elections can be a turning point, even a defeat. Or, as Montenegrin political scientist Daliborka Uljarević says for Deutsche Vele: “After these elections, it’s either the deceased or the colonel.” There is no third”.
Admittedly, it was speculated that the strongest party DPS could run for the current mayor of Podgorica and the “announced Đukanović’s successor” Ivan Vuković, but they still decided on the tested option.
Milo Đukanović, especially after the arrival of pro-Serbian options, became more than a symbol in the fight for the survival of Montenegro as a state and of Montenegro itself, so all other controversial matters that burdened him fell into the background, from accusations of corruption scandals to the controversy about the longest-serving European leader (since 1989).
Namely, further foreign policy priorities of Montenegro depend on these elections, such as membership in the EU, and especially in NATO (the majority of pro-Serbian parties are in favor of leaving, although this issue will probably not be raised so openly in the campaign), and further ties to Vučić’s Serbia and Putin’s Russia, especially since Montenegro is heavily underlined in the project of the “Serbian world” or, as they like to say, turning Montenegro into “Serbia on the sea”.
The campaign started with a scandal, fake polls appeared. For example, an Ipsos poll was published, which was later denied by the agency, reports the portal razotkrijnje.me.
In addition, one candidate had to withdraw. Namely, one of the leaders of the propulsive party Europe now, Milojko Spajić, had to give up his candidacy because it was revealed (he hid it) that he is a citizen of Serbia, so analysts are now in doubt whether this could make the position of their reserve candidate Milatović more difficult or him, however, because of the spite of the voters to strengthen.
It was also controversial for Mandić, because a few years ago he boasted about his Serbian passport, but he says he “doesn’t have it anymore”.
Draginja Vuksanović-Stanković, also from the pro-Montenegrin SDP, has no chance, but she will take some votes from Đukanović, and some fear that she could take the very few percentages that will prevent him from winning in the first round.
Serbia is also in focus
In addition to the pro-Montenegrin structure, Milo Đukanović can also count on the votes of the national minorities there, from Albanians and Bosniaks to Croats, who traditionally support his policies.
However, disputes within the pro-Serbian-pro-Russian corps play into his hands because the 3.5-4 candidates there will steal votes from each other.
If they gathered around one candidate, he could probably be the winner, if not in the first, then in the second round. Everything depends, of course, on the turnout and how the opposing camps will motivate their voters to go to the polls.
Given that the Serbian Orthodox Church had a say in the parliamentary elections (after all, the government was formed in the Ostrog monastery), now there is also concern about how much the SPC and Serbia can influence the outcome of the elections.
Admittedly, Vučić has big problems with agreeing to the German-French proposal on the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, so at the moment, as well as his media, the elections in Montenegro are not in focus, but their approach could intensify his interest.
First, because of Serbia’s direct interest in winning the pro-Serbian candidate, but also to divert attention from the “Kosovo issue” because Vučić is exposed to strong attacks and pressure from the opposition, as well as from Moscow, to reject the proposed proposal, which he agreed to.
Russia, on the other hand, at this moment, when it is faced with international isolation and a protracted war in Ukraine, the victory of the pro-Serbian candidate would allow it to further strain relations and destabilize the region.
Montenegro is once again at a crossroads. Which side they will go to is not important only for them, but it can have a direct impact on the political structure and relations in our entire region.
