Eurasia Press & News
The date of the presidential elections has been announced in Turkey. This will probably be the most difficult test for Erdogan. And by internal circumstances – the strengthening of the pro-Western secular-Kemalist opposition (primarily in the person of the Republican People’s Party), a split in the AKP itself, a sharp decline in the economy, inflation, the consequences of a monstrous earthquake, and externally – the intensifying conflict with the United States and the European Union, a critically increased rejection of Erdogan’s policies by the globalist leadership of the White House.
The main thing about Erdogan is his steady focus on sovereignty. That is the main point of his policy. Around this axis, all his activities as head of state are built. Erdogan initially relied on Islamist ideology, an alliance with extreme Sunni Salafi regimes in the Arab world. During this period, he worked closely enough with the United States, and the structures of Fethullah Gülen acted as a module for such cooperation. Secular Kemalists, Turkish nationalists both right and left, were then in opposition. This culminated in the Ergenekon case, during which Erdogan arrested the entire top military leadership, which traditionally adhered to the Kemalist orientation.
But at some point, this policy ceased to promote sovereignty and began, on the contrary, to weaken it. After the start of Russia’s military operation in Syria and the plane shot down by the Turks in 2015, a threat loomed over Erdogan: firstly, relations with Russia completely deteriorated, putting Turkey on the brink of war, and secondly, the West, dissatisfied with the course towards sovereignty, was ready overthrow Erdogan, replacing him with more obedient associates – Davutoglu, Gul, Babacan, etc. The Gülenists, who were earlier allies of Erdogan and the main opponents of Kemalism, became the basis of the conspiracy. In 2016, when relations with Russia were somewhat clarified, the West, using the Feithulakhists (Gulenists), tried to carry out a coup d’état, but it was thwarted. Moreover, the most important role was played by the fact that a significant part of the patriotic Kemalists, military, shortly before the putsch, those released from prison by Erdogan, and their political structure, the Vatan party, supported Erdogan at a critical moment, and not the pro-Western military. The fact is that by this moment, the Kemalist nationalists (right and left) realized that Erdogan was building his policy on strengthening sovereignty, and ideology was secondary to him. And since the Gulenist conspirators and other Westerners who rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side. and their political structure, the Vatan party, supported Erdogan at a critical moment, and not the pro-Western military. The fact is that by this moment, the Kemalist nationalists (right and left) realized that Erdogan was building his policy on strengthening sovereignty, and ideology was secondary to him. And since the Gulenist conspirators and other Westerners who rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side. and their political structure, the Vatan party, supported Erdogan at a critical moment, and not the pro-Western military. The fact is that by this moment, the Kemalist nationalists (right and left) realized that Erdogan was building his policy on strengthening sovereignty, and ideology was secondary to him. And since the Gulenist conspirators and other Westerners who rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side. The fact is that by this moment, the Kemalist nationalists (right and left) realized that Erdogan was building his policy on strengthening sovereignty, and ideology was secondary to him. And since the Gulenist conspirators and other Westerners who rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side. The fact is that by this moment, the Kemalist nationalists (right and left) realized that Erdogan was building his policy on strengthening sovereignty, and ideology was secondary to him. And since the Gulenist conspirators and other Westerners who rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side. rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side. rebelled against Erdogan slavishly followed the globalist West, which inevitably led Turkey to the complete collapse and liquidation of the national state, the Kemalists decided to support Erdogan in order to save the state. Partly supported Erdogan and Russia, also realizing that his enemies were puppets of the West. The Turkish nationalists from the MHP (Bahceli) finally took his side.
Since 2016, Erdogan has taken positions close to patriotic Kemalism and partly to Eurasianism, openly proclaiming the priority of sovereignty, criticizing Western hegemony and supporting the project of a multipolar world. Relations with Russia also began to gradually improve, although Erdogan made pro-Western steps from time to time. From now on, sovereignty as the highest goal of politics became his ideology.
However, a number of miscalculations in the domestic political course and in the economy were taken advantage of by the liberal opposition represented by the Republican People’s Party (Kylychdaroglu), which initially opposed the Islamist course of the early Erdogan, and then rejected his sovereignty. She managed to get a number of key posts in the elections – first of all, by placing her candidates for mayor of the two main cities – Ankara and Istanbul. The opposition to Erdogan also included his former colleagues in the ruling AKP party, who also do not agree with Eurasianism and sovereignism, and are oriented to the West – all the same Ahmet Davutoglu, Abdul Gul, Ali Babacan, etc.
In such a situation, Erdogan goes to the polls. The fuse is obviously dissatisfied with him due to disobedience – in particular, because of his demarche against Sweden and Finland, whose entry into NATO Turkey prevented. Even more indignant globalists in Washington are Ankara’s relatively soft policy towards Russia, which the collective West is essentially waging war in Ukraine. And most importantly: the current leadership of the White House and the globalist elites of the European Union categorically do not accept even a hint of sovereignty from their vassals or from their opponents. All who are ready to submit to the West are obliged to completely give up sovereignty in favor of a supranational decision-making center. This is the law. Erdogan’s policy directly contradicts this. So, Erdogan must be removed. At any cost. If this failed in 2016 during the coup d’etat, it will have to be done in the elections in 2023. And it does not matter what their result will be. After all, the practice of color revolutions always remains in reserve. This is what we see once again in Georgia, whose leadership, after the departure of the ultra-Western and liberal Saakashvili, tried to make Georgia a little more sovereign. But even this was enough for Soros to activate his networks to start riots against the “too moderate” towards Russia and “unacceptably sovereign” course of the regime controlled by the pragmatic oligarch Bedzina Ivanishvili. whose leadership, after the departure of the ultra-Western and liberal Saakashvili, tried to make Georgia a little more sovereign. But even this was enough for Soros to activate his networks to start riots against the “too moderate” towards Russia and “unacceptably sovereign” course of the regime controlled by the pragmatic oligarch Bedzina Ivanishvili. whose leadership, after the departure of the ultra-Western and liberal Saakashvili, tried to make Georgia a little more sovereign. But even this was enough for Soros to activate his networks to start riots against the “too moderate” towards Russia and “unacceptably sovereign” course of the regime controlled by the pragmatic oligarch Bedzina Ivanishvili.
Now Erdogan is gathering a political coalition, which he will rely on in the elections. Obviously, the supporting structure will be the AKP, a party generally loyal to Erdogan, but without any idea whatsoever and consisting of nondescript and not very enthusiastic functionaries among the people. Technically, this is a useful tool, but also somewhat burdensome. It is with the functionaries of the AKP and the managerial personnel appointed from among them that many in Turkey associate the failures in the economy, the growth of corruption, and the inefficiency of the management system. If Erdogan is a charismatic figure, then this quality does not apply to the AKP. The party lives on the authority of Erdogan, and not vice versa.
The traditional ally will obviously be Turkish nationalists from the Nationalist Movement Party of Turkey Devlet Bahceli. During the Cold War and by inertia in the 1990s, Turkish nationalists were strictly NATO-oriented and adhered to an anti-Soviet (later anti-Russian) course. However, in the 2000s, their policy began to gradually change. They increasingly turned away from the liberal West and moved closer to the sovereign vector of Erdogan. From an ideological point of view, they are brighter than the AKP, but their radicalism repels part of the Turkish population. In any case, Erdogan’s ideological and political alliance with Bahceli, which has stood the test of time, is the most important element of his future.
Erdogan is also supported by small but influential movements of political Sufis who do not have mass support. Their role is to fill the vacuum created against the destruction of the Gulenist structures that claimed to be considered a “Sufi movement”. Sufism in Turkish society is quite widespread, and a number of tarikats consider Erdogan to be the figure on which the spiritual revival of Turkey depends. Although the diversity of Turkish Sufism, as well as other spiritual movements – primarily Alevis and Tektashists – leaves wide freedom for other opinions.
All Westerners will unite against Erdogan, and it cannot be ruled out that this time the globalists will also activate a network of agents within the AKP itself and in other state structures. Given the difficult situation for Erdogan, for whom, for reasons of age and health, this may be the last chance. – Not just for an individual, but for a historical figure who linked his fate and his policy with the sovereignty of the Turkish state. If he can win now and in the future ensure the continuity of the course, giving it a strictly ideological shape, he will go down in Turkish history as the second Atatürk, the savior of statehood in an era of critical upheavals. If he falls, after this, a series of catastrophes is very likely to await Turkey, because those who come in his place will be guided by the West, which means that the collapse of Turkey in the future is inevitable, after all, globalists have not forgotten at all about the projects of Greater Kurdistan. Yes, they failed to carry out this provocation during the wave of color revolutions and after the invasion of Iraq and Syria, but the fall of Erdogan will breathe new life into these projects. And finally, Erdogan’s opponents will be forced to start a serious confrontation with Russia, because their NATO masters will demand it. And this will be another factor in the collapse of Turkey. Erdogan himself will be discredited by those who will replace him, and the further chain of catastrophes of Turkish statehood will lead to the fact that his name will simply be forgotten. Therefore, Erdogan goes to these elections as his last fight. And not just as a politician, but as a historical figure, as a real leader and symbol of his people. He can finally gain a foothold in this status, but if he loses, he risks losing it forever.
In this situation, geopolitical analysis suggests that Erdogan has one more resource – not so much political and mass, but ideological and image. These are the very patriotic Kemalists who, unlike the liberal Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party, despite harsh repressions during the era of the Ergenekon case, sided with Erdogan at a critical moment, and forgetting old grievances, fully supported his sovereign course. In these circles, Erdogan is called the “green Ataturk”, that is, the Turkish sovereignist, a popular leader with an Islamic bias. The political face of this extremely influential political group in Turkey, consisting mainly of the military of all ranks, is the small left-wing Vatan party, led by the charismatic leader Dogu Perencik. From an electoral point of view, the party is not at all representative, but its significance is in another way – it is the center of the most relevant geopolitical analysis in Turkey today, an ideological Eurasian think tank, standing on multipolar positions and a full-fledged intellectual center of Turkish sovereignty. Publications “Vatan”, “Aydinlyk”, “Theories”, TV channel Ulusal, many blogs and Internet resources make this education the most important trump card. Watan’s historical strong ties with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea should also be taken into account. For Erdogan, who is now playing against the West, this anti-globalist multipolar vector, a multipolar club, may turn out to be decisive. If Vatan is included in the coalition, then Erdogan will be able to untie his hands in the western direction: connection with the main poles of the multipolar world and, above all, with Russia, from which in modern politics and the economy of Turkey,
Erdogan has demonstrated with his life that he has a fine flair for geopolitics. He always chooses those alliances that strengthen Turkish sovereignty. Kemal Ataturk did the same. At the same time, if the situation changes and the former allies turn out to be an obstacle to Turkish independence and freedom, Erdogan is always ready to sacrifice them.
Turkey today is balancing between the unipolar West and the multipolar East, Eurasia. So it was from the very beginning of the national Turkish state. But the proportions of this balance at each turn of history were determined differently. Sometimes it was important to take a step towards the East (as Kemal Atatürk did in alliance with Lenin). Sometimes towards the West. Hence joining NATO in the face of a real (or imaginary) threat of invasion from Stalin.
Today, Russia, which previously was in the position of Turkey’s geopolitical rival, and even more so the other poles of the multipolar world, do not pose any danger to Turkish sovereignty. This is an objective fact. On the contrary, special relations with Russia and China, as well as the search for a compromise with Shiite Iran, give Turkey vital advantages in foreign as well as domestic policy. The fuse, at least the liberal globalist West, is now playing against Erdogan. So, against Turkish sovereignty. Such a subtle politician as Erdogan cannot fail to understand this. It’s time for him to give sovereignty the status of an ideology and consolidate multipolarity as the dominant vector of Turkish politics.
These elections are decisive for Turkey. Russia in these conditions – despite what may appear in our eyes as inconsistency, hesitation, the policy of “two steps to the left, two steps to the right” – is interested in Turkey remaining united, integral, independent and sovereign. And this is objectively possible only together with Russia, and in no way against it. This means that Erdogan is the best choice for Russia under the given conditions.
