Eurasia Press & News
In the clash of geopolitical agendas between Russia and the West, the biggest loser turns out to be the EU. But in this downward spiral of European geopolitics and a tragic end, Putin’s lawyer, Serbian President Aleksandër Vučić, is bound to slip.
For several weeks, citizens have been protesting regularly, every Saturday, in Serbia. The slogan of these protests seems to have been well chosen: “Serbia against violence”. Initially, the protests were organized for a few weeks only in Belgrade, meanwhile they have expanded the geography to the ten largest cities of Serbia. They demand a government separated from the violent and incriminated elements. During the last marches everywhere in ten cities of Serbia, it was warned that the protests will be radicalized from next week, if the demands of the protesters are not met.
Monopoly on the legitimate use of force
This request does not exclude the logic of things: Serbian citizens take into account that governments, especially those in Serbia, are characterized as the basic institution that has a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But effective governance cannot be based on this legitimate right alone. The democratic order, especially the one built on the principles of liberal democracy, requires the Government to be able to use force against those who exercise illegal violence against citizens, as well as against those who claim to turn violence into a political instrument. for the reconciliation of active citizenship.
And we remind you that the protests started after two mass murders that shocked Serbia at the beginning of May. Meanwhile, the protesters are demanding the dismissal of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the Security and Information Agency, the latter also known as a powerful lever of Russia in the framework of the Serbian government, but also of the members of the Electronic Media Regulator and the leadership of the Public Service of Serbia.
In Serbia, last Saturday marked the seventh week since active citizenship has been put into action. But until this past Saturday, since the protesters did not present any political demands that would endanger Vucic’s power, they were tolerated to march and give speeches in absolute calm. On June 24, there were specific signs that proved that Vučić’s power has begun to shake. The power provocateurs jumped into action, provoking the cases, the alibi required for the state’s application of “legal violence”.
Next Saturday, blood is expected to heat up even more. The collision seems inevitable. Serbia, if the indifferent attitude of the West towards this behavior of Vučić, not only in relation to Kosovo, but also to the protesting citizens deepens, could very easily slip into the terrain of civil war.
Let’s remember how the American government reacted to the occupation of the Capitol by protesters on January 6, 2021. What could happen if in Belgrade we have a replay of the “Velvet Revolution” that took place in Kiev on the verge of consigning the vassal government of Kiev to Putin?
In the Capitol, the response that the State gave to the hooligans who were manipulated by politics was very proportionate, cautious, although very necessary. That reaction of the State was not because the protesters deserve punishment if they have clear political demands, but the countermeasure was a proper lesson for those who in the future take the courage to attack State Institutions.
Seen from this perspective, the recent events in Serbia have been catastrophic for Aleksandar Vučić.
That’s why he takes actions for the disturbance of the north of Kosovo up to the act of kidnapping three policemen within the territory of the Republic of Kosovo, deepening that subversive action with the penetration of weapons adapted for the Serbian guerilla in the north, which he has already established. and waits for the right moment to give him the order for action. He does all this alone to channel and divert attention from internal problems to Kosovo.
Political developments in Serbia are happening so fast that they remain unrecognized by the general public. Meanwhile, Western diplomacy, as it is facing the adversaries of the war in Ukraine and even the unexpected like the work of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup d’état, which for a moment made the world unable to breathe, the wandering clashes in Serbia and completely neglected.
But the fact that the Serbian opposition and generally active Serbian citizens are able to protest regularly and for weeks at a time is, in itself, a massive blow to the authority of the Vucic government.
Western diplomacy currently makes the same mistake in its relations with Serbia as it did with Russia in the 1990s, when it openly discussed Moscow’s alleged willingness to join the NATO alliance. In fact, Serbia’s denied readiness to join NATO is not discussed now, as it categorically rejects it, but Serbia’s separation from Russian influence is discussed, as it was something self-evident.
A historical mistake of the EU
In my opinion, Western diplomacy is making the same mistake by missing a historic opportunity to finally detach Serbia from Russia’s influence. Serbia’s prolonged confrontation with Kosovo and a kind of silent rebellion of a neighborhood of Western diplomats for the soft annexation of the north of Kosovo through the initial creation of a political-territorial autonomy that they euphemistically call the Association. But a new Albanian-Serbian war cannot remain isolated, no matter how many guarantees the prime minister of political Albania or the leading nomenclature of North Macedonia give. In other words, Belgrade has meanwhile decided on a slightly more sophisticated variant for the annexation of the north of Kosovo, but it will not be able to avoid the two fronts that could explode at the same time — the one against Bosnia (as they argue Vucic’s generals, without the need for military intervention) and the one against Kosovo (initially on the political level, but always brandishing weapons as a real threat).
So, there is no new possibility, which can be described tomorrow as a lost opportunity for the USA and the EU to get Serbia on the side of the West, and there certainly won’t be for a long time as long as the geopolitical future of Russia in relation to China still remains with many question marks.
In 1948, while overseeing the creation of NATO and its expansion, George Kennan wrote: “Why did the military alliance want to divert attention from a more reasonable and promising program of economic recovery by promoting a danger that did not really exist, but which could really become a reality because of the endless debates about the military balance and the demonstrative incitement of military rivalry?”
“For some reason we forgot how Russia supported the US in Afghanistan and allowed them to transport supplies for US troops on their railways. We have forgotten that President Vladimir Putin was the first international leader to call US President George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks. We have forgotten what Putin thinks about NATO membership. We forgot that Russia returned to Christianity, but also gave freedom to Islam and other religions. We have forgotten the progress made under Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin, Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin in reducing nuclear weapons. Along with the Americans, the Russians helped reduce the world stockpile of atomic weapons from 70,000 to about 13,000” — says Jonathan Power in his SCMP article. [1]
In a separate analysis with the significant title “Revealed: How the deal was made in Stalin’s shelter”, published on June 5, 1999, The Guardian underlined the preconditions that the American delegation had presented to the Russian delegation about the expected developments in Kosovo:
“The first was that the Americans and NATO would not withdraw from their terms. “Our conclusion is that all Serbian forces, or almost all, must leave Kosovo. And they must be replaced by an international peacekeeping force with a clear NATO chain of command and with NATO at its core,” Strobe Talbott said. “This is what will be done. No compromise on those points. No negotiations with Belgrade. We are not talking to Milosevic except in one language: bombing.”
The second truth Chernomyrdin recognized was that there would be no separation of hawks from doves, no real gap between Americans and Europeans that Moscow could exploit.”[2]
This fact was made known to the Russian representative by President Martti Ahtisaari, the special envoy of the European Union for Kosovo.
Unfortunately, the West today is very divided about the conclusion of the dialogue for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Figures like Josep Borrell, who currently holds the top position in the EU hierarchy — that of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy [from 1 December 2019] and Miroslav Lajčák, the EU’s Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other regional issues of the Western Balkans, are the complete opposite of the Western duo who sat in Stalin’s villa in Moscow opposite Chernomerdin [1999] to deliver the historic message about the NATO bombing that were waiting for Serbia, if it did not stop the violence and state terror in Kosovo. The current EU duo Borell/Lajçak with the measures they are imposing on Kosovo in the name of the EU, it seems clear, have the mission that Milosevic had — damaging the EU and splitting NATO in two!
After a renaissance that the EU, its structures, [the reaction of the deputies in the Foreign Policy Committee reported to Lajçak and warned of the measures awaiting Kosovo, gives me hope that this will happen soon], the opinion will to learn the shameful behind-the-scenes of the Serbian lobby within Borelli’s team, to the detriment, not only of Kosovo, but also of the EU.
The natural end
Vucic, through the reactions on the television platforms that he strictly controls, accused the opposition of treason, calling its actions as acts that contradict the interests of the State. But since the Serbian society has not yet produced an opposition leader who would be able to channel all this discontent accumulated for years during the authoritarian rule of Vucic, the latter seems to be preparing to do the same as Putin did with Prigozhin — to instruct his political opponents to release Serbia. And if Prigozhin may have granted his last refuge in Belarus through the agreement, it seems that the Serbian Prigozhins, who may be provoked by the expected revolt even within the Serbian army, will turn to Greece or France for refuge, like their predecessors. in 1916.
The possible forcing of the real opposition to take the escape route is a sign of weakness on the part of Vucic. Is Vucic’s position in the meantime so weak that he has to rush to create an explosive situation in the north of Kosovo among a Serbian enclave that does not exceed the number of 25,000 people, risking the start of a new Serbian-Albanian war with a real possibility for it to spread throughout our region, pretending to avoid at all costs the start of a civil war in Serbia?
Many analysts — including me in this context — do not believe that Vucic will give up provoking a new Albanian-Serbian war, in case he continues to be treated as he is being treated by a good neighborhood and western diplomacy. But knowing well the political history of Serbia, judging by the past relations of the Serbian president with those who have dared to oppose him, I do not expect that Vucic will live the year in power. He already knows that the protests, if they continue to mass everywhere in Serbia, as happened last Saturday, will inevitably mark the beginning of a civil war in Serbia. Therefore, Vuçqi is doing his best to avoid a possible civil war in Serbia and create circumstances for the outbreak of a new Albanian-Serbian war. However, it is more likely that he will either meet the end of his predecessor, Zoran Xingjic, or that of the Serbian king Peter I, who took refuge in England during the First World War. But if Petri I was forced to leave Serbia after the invasion of Austro-Hungarian forces in 1915, Vučić will probably leave Serbia as he will not be tolerated to cause this war in Kosovo, while the massive protests of Serbian citizens , he is clear that they can slip into the terrain of civil war and his life is seriously endangered.
Does the West need a new war in the Balkans? Not anyway. What he needs is a wise approach by Western leaders to Serbia, Andrew Higgins would say.[3] But can there be a wise approach from the partner to his political partner on the part of Perednim in relation to the Serbian president, as Ambassador C. Hill claims, as long as he remains connected to the world of crime, as he has already proven NYT?! [4] In fact, the action of the President with hunger and in favor of the values of democracy in the region and completely in accordance with the doctrine of J. Biden for the protection of democracies in the war against autocracies, surprisingly has already been abandoned by Aries!
This wisdom continues to be lacking, unfortunately. Since March 1999, when the leaders of Perednim made the historic decision to bomb the targets of the Serbian army to stop the Serbian genocide on the Albanian people in Kosovo, this hunger has taken the road of no return!
Or will it return to the time when headlines like this one about the arrival today of the first 14 American Abrams tanks in Poland, when weapons of this nature will land in Kosovo, will appear in the top news of the media. So only then when the role that Poland has today in the war against Russia, would Albania agree with Kosovo for the southern wing of NATO.
But look critically at the current position of Serbia. The bull looks much weaker this week than last week, and this slide toward his natural end will be permanent. Vucic has never had a more precarious position than now, so it remains to be seen if his government will last a few more weeks, or if he will manage to end this year, or if he will go downhill at a rapid pace which reminds you of the era when all the leaders of Eastern Europe were falling one after the other, and with them the system that their predecessors had set up after the Second World War.
The hour of geopolitical logic of Europe and Serbia
Unlike Russia, which is a pure oligarchy and Putin depends on his supporting oligarchs to maintain his power, Vučić, as an autocrat, depends not only on the oligarchs around him, but also on the Church and the Army, the two institutions that always active in Serbian political life. Meanwhile, the threat to Vucic is coming from citizen protests, from a mass uprising of the Serbian population, and probably from the desertion that may come to him from the Army.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine aimed at restoring the Russian Empire initiated a new geopolitical format at the global level, especially in Europe. In this reformation, if in the west of the old continent, obviously, Poland will benefit the most, it cannot be assumed that in South-Eastern Europe it will be Serbia that will benefit the most.
Vucciqi, aware that Serbia cannot turn back the clock of history when it dominated the region under the guise of Yugoslavia, has initiated its replacement with the Open Balkans.
In the post-Cold War era, the European Union gradually realized itself as a kind of consensual empire under the auspices of US global military and political power, which also gives the US characteristics that make it difficult to give up its imperial character. . The aggressive Russian war accelerated these processes. [5]
But it seems that it will not be like that after the war in Ukraine. On the contrary, Europe is clearly moving towards being strained to the breaking point.
The conclusion of the British historian Garton Ash, which is related to this process in which Europe and Serbia are entering, would seem somewhat proverbial.
“Paradoxically, to secure a post-imperial future and counter Russian aggression, the European Union itself must take on some of the characteristics of empires. It must have a sufficient degree of unity, central authority and the possibility of effective decision-making to protect the common interests and values of Europeans. If every member state continues to have the right of veto over vital decisions, the Union will be hampered internally and externally”.[6]
By punishing Kosovo, with the sole purpose of pulling Serbia aboard the western ship in the waters of the Euro-Atlantic powers, EU diplomats today claim to punish the newest state in the old continent, completely contrary to the values on it. which the EU was founded on, badly damages this process that Ash writes about.
Venerating this amoral political act of the EU, the Bosnian researcher and publicist Muamer Bećirović, in a recently published analysis, concludes:
“Politicians, intellectuals and journalists in Europe no longer have a historical horizon. In the West, man lives exclusively in the present. The only connection to the past is to use the past as a means of legitimization, of elevation above others, but not to draw wisdom from it.” [7]
The clock of Europe’s geopolitical logic has remained in the 90s of the last century. Therefore, Brussels had no real geopolitical agents for Ukraine in 2014, when the Russian Federation began the de facto occupation of Ukraine; it, that is, the geopolitical agenda, was missing even on the eve of the Russian aggression for the complete occupation of Ukraine.
Belgrade’s political trap in relation to the north of Kosovo and the so-called Association, in which Brussels has already fallen, is proof that the EU still lacks a geopolitical agenda for South-Eastern Europe, with an emphasis on Kosovo.
Those career diplomats who have been part of the apparatus of violence for the oppression of their own people [like the work of the Catalan Josef Borrel], cannot be the model of politicians and diplomats who could contribute to the awakening of the EU and conform reflection geopolitical time clock.
Consequently, in this clash of geopolitical agendas between Russia and the West, the biggest loser turns out to be the EU.
The hour of geopolitical logic of Europe and Serbia
Unlike Russia, which is a pure oligarchy and Putin depends on his supporting oligarchs to maintain his power, Vučić, as an autocrat, depends not only on the oligarchs around him, but also on the Church and the Army, the two institutions that always active in Serbian political life. Add to this the Russian service network with their main man, Aleksandr Vulin, the head of the BIA [Serbian Secret Service], former Minister of Defense and Internal Affairs. In the meantime, the US Ministry of Finance imposed sanctions on Vulin.
This act of sanctioning the main pro-Russian criminal Aleksander Vulin, made public on July 11, may seem late, but it is a good signal anyway.
“This action is not aimed at any of the institutions of the Republic of Serbia. The US is unwavering in its efforts to expose those involved in corrupt and destabilizing activities that undermine the rule of law in the Western Balkans and deepen Russia’s malign influence in the region. The US continues to support the citizens of Serbia on the path to reform the judicial system, fight corruption and create a better future,” said a tweet from the US Embassy.
In this way, by sanctioning persons in Serbia, is the process of democratization in Serbia and the region helped. By sanctioning Vulin, as perosn, without sanctioning the system he led – the incriminated structures that were preparing to explode the second front of the war in the North of Kosovo, the real value of the punishment with sanctions imposed on Vulin and Dodik is lost, if further Serbia and the Republika Srpska in B&H remain unpunished. Responsibility in Serbia is systemic; its foundations were built on the genocide in Kosovo and Bosnia.
Vucciqi, aware that Serbia cannot turn back the clock of history when it dominated the region under the guise of Yugoslavia, has initiated its replacement with the Open Balkans.
In the post-Cold War era, the European Union gradually realized itself as a kind of consensual empire under the auspices of US global military and political power, which also gives the US characteristics that make it difficult to give up its imperial character. . The aggressive Russian war accelerated these processes. [5]
But it seems that it will not be like that after the war in Ukraine. On the contrary, Europe is clearly moving towards being strained to the breaking point.
The conclusion of the British historian Garton Ash, which is related to this process in which Europe and Serbia are entering, would seem somewhat proverbial.
“Paradoxically, to secure a post-imperial future and counter Russian aggression, the European Union itself must take on some of the characteristics of empires. It must have a sufficient degree of unity, central authority and the possibility of effective decision-making to protect the common interests and values of Europeans. If every member state continues to have the right of veto over vital decisions, the Union will be hampered internally and externally”.[6]
By punishing Kosovo, with the sole purpose of pulling Serbia aboard the western ship in the waters of the Euro-Atlantic powers, EU diplomats today claim to punish the newest state in the old continent, completely contrary to the values on it. which the EU was founded on, badly damages this process that Ash writes about.
Venerating this amoral political act of the EU, the Bosnian researcher and publicist Muamer Bećirović, in a recently published analysis, concludes:
“Politicians, intellectuals and journalists in Europe no longer have a historical horizon. In the West, man lives exclusively in the present. The only connection to the past is to use the past as a means of legitimization, of elevation above others, but not to draw wisdom from it.” [7]
The clock of Europe’s geopolitical logic has remained in the 90s of the last century. Therefore, Brussels had no real geopolitical agents for Ukraine in 2014, when the Russian Federation began the de facto occupation of Ukraine; it, that is, the geopolitical agenda, was missing even on the eve of the Russian aggression for the complete occupation of Ukraine.
Belgrade’s political trap in relation to the north of Kosovo and the so-called Association, in which Brussels has already fallen, is proof that the EU still lacks a geopolitical agenda for South-Eastern Europe, with an emphasis on Kosovo.
Those career diplomats who have been part of the apparatus of violence for the oppression of their own people [like the work of the Catalan Josef Borrel], cannot be the model of politicians and diplomats who could contribute to the awakening of the EU and conform reflection geopolitical time clock.
Consequently, in this clash of geopolitical agendas between Russia and the West, the biggest loser turns out to be the EU.
But, in this downward spiral of European geopolitics and a tragic end, Putin’s lawyer, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, whose era is already coming to an end, is bound to slip.
1.See the link: https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion /article/3224029/new-ftoh-lufta-mes-perëndimit-dhe-rusisë-quajtur-definitely-jo.
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/jun/05/1?fbclid=IwAR3FjvWOdSHoYLGC3-pzou0IjPdgqBHm9Q2O3hpFyd60vv6VJwOffrPH_hI
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/world/europe/serbia-Kosova-protests-vucic.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/magazine/aleksandar-vucic-veljko-belivuk-serbia.html
- https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/m-stefanov-putin-je-agresijom-na-ukrajinu-sam-sebi-zadao-smrtni-udarac/
- https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/m-stefanov-putin-je-agresijom-na-ukrajinu-sam-sebi-zadao-smrtni-udarac/
- https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/open-source/der-niedergang-der-geschichte-li.358777
