Eurasia Press & News
Over the past eleven months, the world’s attention has been fixed on the Gaza Strip as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted military operations against Hamas. As a major war in Gaza dominates the front pages, Iran’s proxy Hezbollah continues to launch a stream of aerial attacks into northern Israel.
These attacks have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. Early Tuesday, Israel’s security cabinet voted to add their safe return to Israel’s official war aims. The vote came hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein that he was not confident in a ceasefire deal and “the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action.”
This follows months of failed mediation attempts by Hochstein and Biden administration officials. Hochstein reportedly told Gallant and others on Tuesday that military action would not ensure the safety of Israeli civilians and would instead risk a wider regional war. However, since Hochstein’s many previous mediation attempts failed, and absent an alternative solution for the crisis on Israel’s northern border, Israeli leaders are signaling that they feel compelled to degrade this threat.
Hezbollah is getting stronger
The Biden administration’s pressuring of Israel to avoid a larger-scale conflict with Hezbollah has forced Israel into a series of low-intensity exchanges. Following the killing of twelve Israeli-Druze children, for example, White House spokesperson John Kirby stated that “there’s no reason, in our view, that this has to lead to some sort of dramatic escalation.” In line with the United States’ desire to avoid dramatic escalation, Israel responded with a targeted assassination against Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in July that failed to reduce tensions. While the White House may believe that limited engagements are preferable to a larger military operation, this strategy prevents Israel from achieving its security goals. It also pushes the region closer to broader conflict as each side intensifies the scope of its attacks over time. This creates the exact scenario that the administration is desperate to avoid.
Additionally, delaying the conflict allows Hezbollah’s capabilities to grow as Iran pours resources in, increasingly jeopardizing US security interests. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s 2024 Annual Threat Assessment states that Hezbollah “seeks to limit US influence in Lebanon and the broader Middle East,” goals it shares with the Iranian government. The stronger Hezbollah becomes, the more capable it will be in threatening US allies, personnel, and influence in the region. In addition to countering Hezbollah’s goals, US involvement and support would help to rein in and deter Iran, as well as signal to Russia, China, and other states that the United States supports its allies and wants to maintain its influence in the region.
With IDF capabilities stretched thin across multiple fronts since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has exploited the opportunity to test the limitations of Israel’s air defenses. It has also leveraged its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to develop a catalog of important military, civilian, and infrastructure targets within Israel. The full extent of Hezbollah’s military capabilities are unknown, but the group is estimated to have more than 150,000 ground-to-ground missiles, which is more than ten times what it possessed at the beginning of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The group is also reported to have around 2,000 drones, 25,000-30,000 active personnel, and the same number of reservists. Critically, these forces now have combat experience, having fought on behalf of the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War. Other fighters from Iraq and Syria are pouring into Lebanon to reinforce Hezbollah’s ranks, too, according to reports. Taken together, the data show an aggressive increase in Hezbollah’s capabilities over time. This threat is compounded by the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran in the near future, which could back Hezbollah with the ultimate deterrent. The longer Israel waits to deal with Hezbollah, the more time it allows Iran to arm and train its proxy and work toward creating a deliverable nuclear weapon, which would likely increase the difficulty and destructiveness of a future conflict.
What Israel needs from the United States
If Israel does conduct a military operation in southern Lebanon, Israel will need weapons sales and military aid without delay to ensure the IDF’s efficacy in southern Lebanon and the safety of the population. Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling interceptor stores will be pushed to the brink with the likely overwhelming nature of the aerial attacks by Hezbollah. To keep the air defense systems fully operational, the United States should provide the military aid needed for Israel to continue to purchase crucial equipment.
To further support its ally, the United States should station the necessary naval forces in the region, increasing the two militaries’ interoperability and supporting Israel’s complex but still vulnerable air defense systems. US Central Command should coordinate regional efforts to defeat incoming projectiles from Iran and its proxies, similar to what the United States did during April’s Iranian attack. Israel’s strike on Hezbollah launch vehicles in August showed Israel’s intelligence capabilities in preempting a massive attack. To support this effort, the United States can provide passive support by augmenting sensing and targeting capabilities through Aegis systems and E-2 Hawkeyes, as well as with broader intelligence sharing. US sensing and targeting assistance in combination with regional efforts would allow Israel to focus its capabilities solely on Hezbollah, best positioning Israel to minimize the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s aerial attacks.
The final means by which the United States can aid Israel’s efforts is through vocal backing on the international stage. Following the October 7 attacks, Israel received broad support for its military campaign in Gaza. As the war has continued and the public is increasingly exposed to the horrors of urban combat and information warfare campaigns, this international support has diminished. Israel’s rationale for conducting an operation in Lebanon would be justified, as Hezbollah has been attacking Israel since October 8, 2023, launching more than 7,500 rockets, missiles, and drones since that date. Malign actors on the international stage would attempt to paint Israel’s actions as illegitimate. To support the rules-based international system, it is important for the United States to support military operations that defend a democratic and allied state’s sovereignty.
While many Americans are justifiably cautious about the country getting entangled in another war in the Middle East, Israeli officials have declared that, even though forces are stretched across multiple fronts, they are willing to do the heavy lifting. Israel will need US support through military aid, intelligence, missile defense support, and vocal support on the international stage. There are clear incentives for the United States to support this effort, as confronting Iran through the degradation of Hezbollah improves regional stability by weakening Iran’s strongest deterrent threat over Israel. Additionally, with Hezbollah further degraded, Israel can play a greater role in fighting against Iranian proxies, further advancing US security interests in the region.
In the same sense that supporting Ukraine has allowed the United States to degrade one of its near-peer adversaries without deploying US personnel on the battlefield, supporting Israel would allow the United States to degrade another revisionist actor in Iran without US troops on the ground. The growing links between the United States’ adversaries across the globe—mainly China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—must be addressed, and the most effective way to do so is by leveraging the United States’ robust alliance network. By supporting Israel’s efforts to secure its northern border, the United States can show its resolve and start to reestablish its regional deterrence, as well as signal to revisionist actors that it is still committed to the defense of its allies globally. This is especially relevant as China, Russia, and Iran continue to establish geopolitical footholds in the region, looking to upend the United States’ role as the region’s security guarantor.
The Lebanese government cannot control the actions of Hezbollah and, whether willingly or not, has allowed Hezbollah to turn the nation into a forward operating base for Iran’s terror activities. Given this and the direct attacks from Hezbollah, it is understandable why Israel feels compelled to conduct a military operation in southern Lebanon. While Israeli officials have made it abundantly clear that they will fight alone, if need be, it is in the United States’ strategic interest to support Israel as it seeks to remove the threat from Hezbollah. Supporting Israel in this campaign would be an important step in deterring and reining in Iran, and it would demonstrate that the United States can create credible security guarantees and prevent Russia and China from filling a US power vacuum in the region.
