Eurasia Press & News
Georgia is at the center of a political and geopolitical confrontation, with allegations of electoral fraud fueled by suspicions of pro-Russian interference. While President Salome Zurabishvili denounces vote rigging, imprisoned pro-European former President Mikheil Saakashvili calls for mobilization to protect the country’s European future. This crisis raises crucial questions for Europe and its eastern borders.
It’s a “stolen election” and a “constitutional coup,” the opposition claims. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, pro-Western and at odds with the government but without real power, protested against the “total falsification” of the election by a “Russian operation.” Imprisoned for three years after a sham trial, the pro-European reformist former president Mikheil Saakashvili calls from his cell for “massive demonstrations“ to “show the world that we are fighting for freedom.” Ballot-box stuffing, vote-buying, voter intimidation and, above all, a profoundly unfair campaign, the Georgian Dream, the misnamed state party created by pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose personal fortune accounts for at least a quarter of the gross domestic product (GDP) of this small trans-Caucasian ex-Soviet republic of 3.7 million people, spared no expense to ensure victory.
Throughout the campaign, he denounced what he called “the world war party,” meaning the West. Voting for the pro-European opposition is to risk ending up like Ukraine,” hammered the party that has ruled Georgia unchallenged for twelve years. Its posters showed the ruins of Ukrainian cities to suggest what might happen if the pro-Europeans won. They made every effort to make voting difficult, if not impossible, for a diaspora largely supportive of joining the EU. The results of the vote are all the more surprising because in the early hours of the morning, the projections gave a large lead to the opposition, whose four components had finally managed to form a united front after years of division.
Putin Accused of Stealing Georgia’s Future
“Europe can and must prevent the Putinists from robbing the Georgians of their European future, because this vote will also have consequences for the Western world,” stresses Thornike Gordadzé, lecturer at Sciences-Po, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute and former Georgian Minister for European Integration (2010-2012). What is at stake in Tbilisi directly affects Europeans because it could determine the eastern borders of the European Union. And Russia is on the offensive. In Moldova, a week earlier, the choice of Europe came down to a handful of votes in a referendum that polls had shown to be a foregone conclusion. In Georgia, the ruling party won, officially with 53%, but with obvious fraud. Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), NATO, and EU bodies described the vote as “marred by inequalities [between candidates], pressure, and tension.
Georgians, especially the youngest and most dynamic segments of society, starting with the cities, where two-thirds of Georgians live, dream of Europe. The tens of thousands of demonstrators who took to the streets of the capital a week before the vote bear witness to this. The government is well aware of this desire for Europe and has long maintained an ambiguous stance, with statements such as “We want Europe, but at our own pace and with respect for Georgian specifics, with the very conservative, illiberal and pro-Russian Hungarian leader Viktor Orban as our model”.
EU Accession Process Blocked
Despite Georgia’s recognition as a candidate country last spring, a year after Ukraine and Moldova, the authorities are making every effort to obstruct the process. In May, the country was rocked by mass demonstrations against a law on “foreign influence,” inspired by Russia’s “foreign agents” legislation, which has been used to crush civil society. Brussels immediately froze the country’s accession to the European Union (EU), and the United States imposed sanctions on Georgian officials. With these largely rigged elections in favor of Ivanishvili and his party, the Kremlin appears poised to achieve in Georgia what it is trying to impose by force of arms in Ukraine.
There are many similarities between the fates of these two former Soviet republics. Georgians and Ukrainians swept away pro-Russian governments with the “Rose Revolution” in Tbilisi in 2003 and the “Orange Revolution” in Kyiv in 2004. Both represented an open challenge to Vladimir Putin in what Russia considers its “near abroad” and zone of influence. Kyiv and Tbilisi jointly applied for NATO membership at the Bucharest Summit in June 2008, with the support of George W. Bush, who even visited Georgia in 2005. Opposition from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel derailed the attempt.
Moscow Still Controls 20% of Georgia’s Territory
The 2008 compromise stated in official documents that Ukraine and Georgia would join “one day,” without setting dates or detailed commitments. This was the worst-case scenario, as it gave Putin a direct incentive to act preemptively, which he did two months later by attacking recalcitrant Georgian regions in August 2008. Since then, Moscow still controls 20% of Georgian territory in the hands of the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Bidzina Ivanishvili’s party finally defeated reformist leader Mikheil Saakashvili in the 2012 elections. In Ukraine, too, the pro-Russian government regained power before being swept aside by the Maidan Revolution in 2014 because it refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union and was preparing to sign one with Putin.
The Georgian issue has an obvious geopolitical dimension for Russia and the European Union. With its gateway to the Black Sea, Georgia is an essential link in the corridor that allows Central Asia and Azerbaijan to transport their exports—including hydrocarbons—to European markets without depending on Moscow. Georgia’s connection to Europe is also vital to Armenia and its government, which is attempting a bold pivot to the West after losing the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan wiped the Republic of Artsakh off the map in a lightning military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter battle for control of Nagorno-Karabakh. While Armenia triumphed in the first war, Azerbaijan, like a shrewd strategist, has patiently consolidated its position, gaining strength and influence on the international stage. Last year, Armenia lost its ultimate geopolitical leverage, leaving it completely at the mercy of Turkey and Azerbaijan. For Moscow, control of the Trans-Caucasus is all the more strategic because it provides territorial continuity with its Iranian ally.
Orban’s Support
The Europeans have little room for maneuver. Closing the door on Georgia’s accession would be a victory for Moscow’s strategy of intimidation. Sanctions would only punish the Georgian population, which lives from hand to mouth. Nevertheless, it is possible to imagine personal sanctions against Ivanishvili, who has considerable assets in Europe and holds a French passport.
One thing is certain: the indecisiveness and ambiguity of Western messages can only encourage Moscow to interfere more and more in Georgia, and a clear, coherent voice is urgently needed. All the more so since the pro-Russian regime also enjoys support within the European Union, starting with Hungary’s illiberal Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who hailed the “crushing victory of the Georgian dream.” His country holds the EU presidency this semester, and he was in Tbilisi on October 28 for a two-day visit. This provocation comes at a time when the President of the European Council is urging the Georgian election authorities to “investigate” “irregularities.”
Washington is also calling for an investigation into fraud. But these responses remain inadequate. Georgia is a test case for the West. On November 3, Moldovan voters go to the polls for the second round of a presidential election that promises to be very close, and Russia is on the offensive, notably through a relentless information war denounced in Moldova by outgoing President Maia Sandu and in Georgia by Salome Zourabichvili.
