Eurasia Press & News
Russia is still present in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe, and this influence has not diminished even after three years of aggression in Ukraine. The “high impact at low cost” formula continues to lead Moscow to realize its agenda on the European continent. Through the Orthodox churches in the region, where it has a decisive influence, Russia continues to strengthen the image of the “defender of the essence of the Slovenian people”, for whom the autocephalous church is one of the most important pillars of identity. At the same time, it uses disinformation and propaganda to polarize the political scene in the countries of the region and align public opinion with positions in favour of its geostrategic interests.
This penetration is then followed by support for pro-Russian political forces, which has led to the growth of these parties in North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, but also in Moldova and Georgia. What all these countries have in common is that they are among the nine EU accession candidates, which also include Albania, Kosovo and Turkey. There has also been an increase in the political power of pro-Russian parties in Bulgaria, where they are expected to be decisive in forming a government after last week’s elections.
A gloomy landscape
This situation is undoubtedly causing concern in the EU, which for the first time in history is rushing to complete the Union with the membership of the excluded countries.
However, problems within and in relation to the candidate countries’ neighbors have led to a dangerous stalemate in the integration process, which is being used as leverage not only by Russia, but also by China and Iran. The lack of reforms and high-level corruption on the one hand and the deterioration of relations with neighbors on the other create a suitable ground for the growth of this malign influence. This concern was raised by the head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, at the meetings with the leaders of the candidate countries during the Balkan tour. She warned that behind every conflict in the region there were forces aiming to stop EU enlargement. Von der Leyen recalled that Russia began its aggression in Ukraine at the very moment that country wanted to become part of the EU. She also mentioned the strong Russian influence in Moldova two weeks ago, where the EU accession referendum almost failed.
When presenting the progress reports for the candidate countries a few days ago, von der Leyen emphasized the danger posed by Russia’s influence. “The tense geopolitical context makes it more urgent than ever to complete the reunification of our continent under the same values of democracy and the rule of law.” We have made great progress in integrating new member states in recent years. And expansion will continue to be the new Commission’s top priority,” she said.
The danger posed by the concept of the “Russian world”
Russia is increasingly becoming a threat to Europe, especially for member states with a significant presence of Russian ethnicity. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, over 25 million ethnic Russians remained outside the borders of the Russian Federation. Most of them in Ukraine, the Baltic states and other former republics of the federation.
The concept of the “Russian World” is a model of ethnic states that aims to unite all ethnic Russians in a single state. With this concept, the current Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he is improving on the “mistake” of the 1990s. This led to military interventions in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova (in 1992, before Putin came to power, when Russia established Transnistria as its satellite state). These aggressions had a pretext – the protection of Russian ethnicity in the former Soviet republics or in the former satellite states of Moscow.
Beyond this imaginary world in Putin’s head, there is a global attempt to change the “rules-based world order”, an international law that has kept the world calm since the Second World War. This world order gives small states full sovereignty and autonomy so that they can be actors in international relations. The military intervention in Georgia and Ukraine took place precisely because of the desire of these countries to become members of NATO and the EU. The recent summit of the BRICS, a union led by Beijing and Moscow, which took place weeks ago in Kazan, Russia, focused on a list of demands for UN reform.
There are no ethnic Russians in the Balkan region, but there are peoples that Putin sees as part of his project to expand his influence. Russia’s cultural and religious proximity to the peoples of the Balkans makes this goal easily achievable. He is trying to sell the concept of the “Russian world” to Serbia, but also to other countries in the region.
The lack of prospects for integration into the European Union (EU) is another lever that Putin is using to expand Russia’s influence. This is also clear to Brussels, which is now apparently accelerating the integration of the six countries of the Western Balkans and the three countries of Eastern Europe into the Union.
For this reason, the acceleration of the EU enlargement process towards the Western Balkans and the East is more of a geopolitical emergency than a purely administrative process.
