Eurasia Press & News
After an uneasy lull in violence since the abrogation of Article 370 and increased vigilance from the counterterrorism strategies by Indian security forces, Pakistan is back to fomenting trouble in the Kashmir Valley. India’s northwestern neighbour has now resorted to using terrorists and sleeper cells to disrupt peace in Jammu and Kashmir, to sabotage the democratic process in the region.
Shortly after Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the first Chief Minister of the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), a series of terror incidents unfolded in the Kashmir Valley. Between 16 October and 7 November, terrorists targeted eight locations across Kashmir. The recent grenade blast in Srinagar city that left 11 people injured, and the killing of a wanted Pakistani Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander in the heart of Srinagar indicates that terrorism is making a comeback, with Pakistan intensifying its proxy war against India.
Between 1 and 9 November, eight terrorists were killed in six encounters across the Kashmir region; four taking place in North Kashmir. As of 4 December, since January 2024, there have been 60 terror incidentsinvolving killings in 2024, resulting in the deaths of 31 civilians, 26 security personnel and 64 terrorists in J&K. Civilian casualties from terrorist attacks have doubled this year than in 2023, with most victims being non-locals.
Pakistan’s proxy war and foreign terrorists in J&K
Since 2020, terrorists have been operating in the south of the Pir Panjal and Jammu regions. The recently held J&K assembly elections saw a 63.9 percent voter turnout, but with only six out of 20 districts of Kashmir showing increased participation—Kulgam by 3.4 percent, Pulwama by 2.5 percent, Shopian by 8.5 percent, Srinagar by 2.1 percent, and Baramulla by 3.3 percent. The elections were conducted without any terror incidents, marking a successful first test of democracy in the UT after the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A. Even foreign diplomats from 15 countries observed the election process and visited polling stations in Budgam and Srinagar to witness the UT’s vibrant democracy in action.
The peaceful elections in J&K were the result of a zero-tolerance approach towards the terror ecosystem and its sympathisers in the region. The security forces dismantled the Over Ground Workers (OGW) network and acted against terror funding through arrests, raids, account freezing, and the denial of government jobs. Moreover, a significant positive shift in youth perception towards New Delhi contributed to decreased violence. The youth realised that Islamabad and Pakistan-based terror groups are exploiting religion to incite trouble and use narcotics to fund terrorism. Due to enhanced security measures and positive changes, only four individuals joined local terror outfits as of November this year. This marked a significant decline in local recruitment from 22 in 2023 and 113 in 2022. Consequently, there are currently around 16 or fewer local insurgents compared to more than 80 foreign terrorists.
Due to the increasingly peaceful environment and the recent success of democracy in J&K, Islamabad and its terrorist groups are attempting to induce radicalisation and escalate terrorist violence through manipulative top-down techniques. Pakistan not only established new virtual terrorist groups but also intensified anti-India activities across social media platforms such as Facebook, X, Telegram, as well as the Dark Web. In October 2024, security agencies reported over 2,000 concerning posts, a significant increase from just 89 during the same period in 2023. Among these posts, 130 were related to terrorism, 310 posed threats to infrastructure, and 33 supported separatism. Pakistan and terror groups in Islamabad are strategically using cyber-enabled influence campaigns and propaganda to shape the public discourse on terrorism and terror violence.
The four years have seen a steady increase in foreign terrorists, initially in the south of Pir Panjal and now in Jammu as well as in the Kashmir region. These groups exploit the dense forests and complex terrain for their activities. Following deadly ambushes and attacks in the Rajouri-Poonch area, terrorist activities have surged across six districts in Jammu, resulting in the deaths of 44 people, including 18 security personneland 13 terrorists.
After elections, there is typically a rise in the activities of foreign terrorists in the Kashmir Valley, particularly in the districts of Baramulla, Kupwara, Bandipora, and Ganderbal. This trend ignites the disturbing memories of the period from 2004 to 2016, during which foreign terrorists successfully carried out terrorist activities to keep J&K on the boil. Pakistan’s nefarious activities were supported by Burhan Wani and other local insurgents, who used social media to boost local recruitment.
Way forward
The Af-Pak region has become a cradle for terrorism due to Islamabad’s state policy of using terror for geopolitical and geostrategic interests. The use of terrorism as a foreign policy tool, distortion of the hadith, the use of encrypted apps and social media for recruitment, and state support from Pakistan and other terror groups have complicated New Delhi’s counterterrorism strategies in J&K. The TECHINT-based (Technical Intelligence) information about the presence and movement of the terrorist has diminished, forcing the security agencies to reinforce HUMINT (Human Intelligence) for successful operations against the terrorists.
New Delhi should strengthen its counterterrorism strategies and enhance coordination within the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC). India’s Home Minister has made it clear that greater collaboration among agencies is essential to tackle the evolving security threats facing the nation and to effectively dismantle terror networks.
To respond to terrorism and a proxy war in J&K proactively and reactively, New Delhi should think of establishing four dedicated fusion centres for improved coordination in North Kashmir, South Kashmir, Rajouri-Poonch and Jammu, with locals from different agencies under the supervision of a multi-agency centre (SMAC) at the UT level. To remain a step ahead, joint training and exercises should be conducted between the different agencies at these fusion centres on the use of big data, technological advancements and Artificial Intelligence to curb terrorism. Joint training is also essential to establish priorities and operational procedures that will significantly contribute to achieving lasting peace in J&K. While coordination at the upper levels of the MAC is commendable, New Delhi must enhance collaboration at the lower level to ensure a better understanding of robust intelligence.
