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Politicians in Central Europe have so far failed to offer comprehensive strategies to fight climate change. A new European Commission, forged in the wake of pandemic and war, is unlikely to either.
2024 was the hottest year on record, EU scientists have confirmed, and was the first year in which global average temperatures exceeded the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900 by more than 1.5°Celsius.
The adverse effects of climate change are becoming tangible for citizens of the Visegrad Group (V4) of Central European countries. Extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves, long, dry summers, droughts, and then excessive rainfall leading up to deadly floods, are all consequences of climate change, caused mostly by human activities.
Climate change is not only forcing us to change our lifestyles, but it has a high economic and human cost. Data from the European Environmental Agency shows that between 1980 and 2023, the EU lost 738 billion euros due to climate- and weather-related extreme causes, with 22 per cent of total costs (or 162 billion euros) accumulated in the last three of those years. Data for 2024 is not yet available, but researchers expect the trend to continue and losses to increase until 2030.
Most of the losses are caused by floods, heatwaves, droughts and forest fires. Losses per capita in euro terms were by far the highest in Slovenia (due to the historic floods in 2023), while among the V4 countries, the Czech Republic suffered the most, followed by Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. What’s striking about Central and Southeast Europe is that extreme weather events generally still catch citizens unprepared, with insured losses often in the single digits (only the Czech Republic stands out with 12 per cent, while insured losses are only 7 per cent in Poland, 6 per cent in Hungary and just 4 per cent in Slovakia). The cost in human lives due to extreme weather conditions is relatively low in the region, but the data does not include deaths from poor air quality, a notorious problem in all V4 countries, causing thousands of premature deaths in the region.
- Overview
V4 countries faced the effects of climate change in a brutal way in 2024. A long, hot, dry summer made life almost unbearable in many metropolitan areas, while drought destroyed crops in the countryside. Flash floods in September provided further proof that global warming cannot be ignored any longer. Climate change is taking a toll on people’s everyday lives, even in Central Europe, a region previously known of its mild and pleasant weather.
Last year will be remembered – at least until the summer of 2025 – as the hottest in Europe. In July, temperatures hit almost 40°C, and remained above 30°C for weeks, with no cooling or rain in sight. Meteorologists had been warning all across the region that it was time to prepare for Mediterranean-style climate and to look for best practices in Southern Europe. At least in one respect, V4 citizens swiftly copied their Southern European peers: they rushed out to buy air-conditioning units. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), European aircon penetration has grown from 10 per cent in 2000 to 19 per cent in 2023, though still well below the US’s 90 per cent. But forecasts say the number of aircon units could quadruple on the continent by 2050. While the cold breeze definitely makes life more pleasant at home, it puts a double burden on the climate, by producing even more emissions and heating the air outside.
Politicians in Central Europe have so far failed to offer comprehensive strategies to fight climate change. Some, mostly in the populist camp, tend to shrug off responsibility and suggest climate change is either not happening or it is a natural phenomenon, having nothing to do with human activities, like the continued use of fossil fuels or CO2 emissions. The burden is usually on local politicians in metropolitan areas to come up with creative but often experimental solutions.
The Hungarian capital of Budapest, a city governed by a leftist-green mayor, admits it is struggling to adapt to the new long, dry, hot summers. “We already announced a climate emergency in 2019,” Orsolya Barsi, head of the Budapest municipality’s climate department, told BIRN.
But their tools are limited, as the opposition-led capital is chronically underfunded after the central government of populist Viktor Orban reduced its tax revenues. Their toolbox includes practicalities like using shading devices or light-coloured canvases in public places, outdoor misting systems, creating “cool islands”, or planting more trees. “Extreme weather means not only heat, but also extreme rainfall. When it rains, it often rains so heavily that the sewage system cannot cope. We need to find methods to store the water and use it later,” Barsi explained.
Other capitals in the region are on a similar track. Bratislava is planning to revitalise 15 parks, planting 25,000 trees and installing 80 drinking fountains. The city plans to install photovoltaic panels on buildings, which would cover at least 20 per cent of annual electricity consumption and lead to lower emissions. Warsaw, not normally regarded as a hot, dry city, has decided to locate a series of water sprinklers across the city to humidify the air. Poland’s Climate Ministry – the only one of the V4 to have such a ministry – announced the creation of 14 community forests around major cities, including Warsaw, Krakow, Gdansk, Wroclaw and Poznan.
Prague at least has a strategy. The Prague Climate Plan 2030 was adopted some years ago, but the implementation is proving painfully slow. “Prague is prepared in theory, but practice often lags behind,” Katarina Svitkova, an associate research fellow at the Europeum think tank, told BIRN. “Heatwaves are still understood as a rather episodic phenomenon.”
The Czech approach is not unique: politicians and citizens in the region are still shocked by extreme weather conditions, rather than seeing it as the norm of the 21st century and adapting as a consequence.
The brutal heatwave in July and August 2024 was followed by torrential rain and flash floods in September. 24 people died in Central Europe after being swept away by rising waters. The Czech Republic issued the highest flood warnings for around 100 areas across the country, and the southern part of Poland introduced emergency evacuations of a number of cities and villages.
“The situation is very dramatic, in many places,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who declared a state of natural disaster and asked the EU for assistance.
Budapest got lucky this time. Hungary prepared for the “flood of the decade”, but the Danube peaked at below the levels of the last big flood in 2013, with no causalities this time. Even so, the flood offered a prime opportunity for the media savvy opposition leader Peter Magyar to take control of the political narrative. Magyar, rolling up his sleeves and packing sandbags in rubber boots, forced Orban to change his political schedule and do likewise. The populist prime minister cancelled all his international engagements (including a much-awaited speech in the European Parliament) in order to “personally coordinate” flood relief efforts – and compete with Magyar on social media.
Neither heatwaves nor the floods have led to a political reckoning in the region – nor have they led to a surge in support for green parties. The opposite, in fact. Energy costs, economic problems and insecurity caused by Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine have pushed climate concerns into the background. The EU is now in the process of backing off its ambitious climate goals in order to balance environmental and industrial goals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has urged European Green Deal policies, those designed to counter climate change and environmental degradation, be implemented “pragmatically” and is currently preparing the Clean Industrial Deal and the Competitiveness Compass, which will look to decarbonise the EU economy while maintaining competitiveness.
Czechs feel they are too insignificant and small in order to feel a reward for their contribution to tackling climate change.”
– Vit Havelka, analyst with the Prague-based Europeum think tank
Most politicians in the V4 sighed with relief and pretended 2024 was an “exceptional year” and not the future norm. Political parties in general also remain cautious about embracing bold changes, although some progress has been made to reduce the region’s dependence on fossil fuels and coal, by investing in renewables like solar and wind energy. In their updated National Climate and Energy Plans (NCEP), submitted to Brussels in 2024, most countries significantly increased their renewable electricity targets, but still fall well short of Lithuania and Estonia, which joined Austria in aiming for 100 per cent renewables-based electricity by the end of the decade. Coal champions like Czechia increased its target from 15 per cent to 41 per cent and Poland from 32 per cent to 51 per cent, fossil-fuel dependent Hungary announced a more modest target, from 21 to 30 per cent.
Civil society in the region is also proving rather silent on climate topics; the few movements that try to bring pressure to bear on politicians are often seen as controversial. In Poland, young activists of the Ostatnie Pokolenie (“Last Generation”) have demanded the government stop investing in roads and redirect the funds into rail and public transport. Following the German model, they also want the introduction of a regional ticket costing 50 zloty (12 euros) to give people across Poland access to all public transport within their region. But public reaction has been mixed, especially when activists daub paint on statues, block roads or interrupt concerts to raise awareness.
“The fact we engage in disruptive action of this type now is born out of frustration, because all other means have failed,” 22-year-old Martyna Lesniak, an Ostatnie Pokolenie activist, told BIRN. Poland is one of Europe’s biggest polluters, with 70 per cent of its power still being generated from coal. No government so far has prioritised climate and environment issues.
Elsewhere in the region, politicians – mostly from populist parties – are also dragging their feet. Neither Slovakia’s Robert Fico, nor Hungary’s Viktor Orban appears to care much about environmental issues. Slovak Environment Minister Tomas Taraba of the far-right Slovak National Party (SNS) has even been accused of conducting an extensive purge among environmental experts when appointed.
Orban does not totally deny the existence of climate change – indeed, he has orchestrated heavy investment in solar energy lately – but he pleads for “economic interests” to be taken into account and lobbies for the continued use of fossil fuels, preferably from Russia.
In Czechia, where society is becoming more aware of the dangers of climate change, most remain unwilling to accelerate green transition policies or change their own personal daily habits. “Czechs feel they are too insignificant and small in order to feel a reward for their contribution to tackling climate change,” Vit Havelka, an analyst with the Prague-based Europeum think-tank, wrote in a policy paper on the topic.
- Signals to watch in 2025
Extreme weather a norm, yet green movements in decline: Politicians, on the left and right, will need to face up to the more extreme weather conditions happening across the region, but no major shifts to more ambitious climate policies can be expected. Czechia is the only country in the V4 with parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025, but it is unlikely any party – perhaps with the exception of the Pirates – will try to capitalise on climate issues. Green policies are generally unpopular in the region, and are even in retreat in more progressive countries like Germany, as citizens face high energy bills and a cost-of-living crisis. As populist parties gain traction in Europe, the climate agenda is a clear loser. With a much more Eurosceptic European Parliament, few new climate initiatives are expected in the next years from Brussels, giving member state governments a freer hand to address challenges individually.
Compass pointing away from green: In fact, the EU’s landmark European Green Deal, a set of policy initiatives by the EU Commission approved in 2020 with the overarching aim of making the EU climate neutral in 2050, is being scaled back. A leaked draft of the Competitiveness Compass – an economic doctrine to guide the EU executive’s work for the coming five years – is said by Politico to point towards widespread deregulation targeting the Green Deal in particular. Politico notes that the compass vows the EU will “stay the course” on its climate targets, but the document’s “focus on slashing environmental red tape to boost the European economy fits neatly into growing calls to revise or repeal large parts of the Green Deal.”
Europe’s aging energy infrastructure: Heatwaves and increasing energy demand/use could lead to growing energy shortages and blackouts. Renewable energy is growing – Europe produced more electricity from sunshine (11 per cent) than coal (10 per cent) for the first time last year, according to data – but significantly more investment will be needed to stabilise the grids. Floods, wildfires and droughts will continue, leading to the testing of new methods to retain water after flash floods. In her speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that infrastructure would be at the heart of the being-prepared Clean Industrial Deal.
Clean Industrial Deal launch: The EU Commission is looking to unveil its Clean Industrial Deal, a package of decarbonisation policies to boost the EU’s traditional energy-intensive industries and emerging clean technology sectors, by February 26. Reports say the CID will be based on six thematic areas: energy security and energy prices; financing; recycling and critical raw materials; labour and skills; lead markets; and global action.
Energy Trumped: The EU is a pioneer in fighting climate change, but ambitions may cool with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The Trump administration in January paused disbursing funds appropriated through his predecessor’s 369-billion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), an initiative of tax credits, grants, and incentives for clean energy, electric vehicles, and programs to reduce climate and environmental pollution, via an executive order on “Unleashing American Energy”. Other executive orders issued in the first hours after Trump took over include withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement on climate action, halting all federal permitting of wind projects, removing barriers to developing and exporting domestically produced fossil fuels, and ending policies to support electric vehicles. European populists and a more right-wing European Parliament may well question the costs of climate policies given the EU is only the fourth biggest CO2 emitter of the world, behind China, the US and India.
LNG shipments on the rise. As the EU cuts Russian oil and gas imports further, it needs to find alternatives. Despite major investments in renewable energy and the rapid growth of solar, wind and hydropower in the EU’s energy mix, fossil fuels are still needed. Buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US could help win over Trump in any tariff debates, but environmentalists warn the shipping industry contributes about 3 per cent to global carbon emissions and is a hard-to-decarbonise sector.
Whether you like it or not, it is China driving the solar, electric car and battery revolution, because they have managed to create industries that are highly innovative and competitive, while Europe has spent decades trying to protect its industries, especially the car sector, from change.”
– Istvan Bart, climate expert
Farmer protests: Agriculture is the sector suffering most from climate change. Droughts are causing entire crops to disappear and are changing the foundations of the agriculture industry. With the EU’s next budget for 2028-2034 already in the making this year, farmers are likely to demand even more support to tackle these challenges. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to 2027 foresees outlays of 387 billion euros, more than a third of the overall EU budget. EU agriculture ministers in October 2024 collectively dismissed mooted attempts to overhaul CAP for the next budget period.
The young generation strikes back: Environmental protests and movements appear to be on the wane but could remerge strongly, especially if populist parties decide to deny or ignore the challenges associated with climate change.