Ukraine From ‘Win-Win’ To ‘Lose-Lose’ Scenario – OpEd

US Seeks Compensation for US Aid for Ukraine. Will NATO members providing aid to Ukraine also seek their Pound or Euro share?

“Ukraine ‘may be Russian someday”; Trump made the comment in an interview on 10th Feb with US broadcaster Fox News, as he discussed the three-year old conflict that has followed Russia’s full-scale invasion.

America First : Rising

President Trump also reiterated that he wants compensation for the aid the US has provided to Ukraine in the form of access to rare earth minerals.“ And I told them that I want the equivalent, like $500bn worth of rare earth.” Ukraine, meanwhile, has suggested it is open to an agreement that would see Washington compensated for continued military and financial aid.

US National Security Advisor talked about the future of US support for Ukraine in a recent interview, during which he claimed, “We need to recoup those costs, and that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earth, their natural resources, and their oil and gas and also buying ours.” According to a Reuters report on 10th Feb, the US also plans to push European allies to buy more American weapons for Ukraine ahead of potential peace talks with Russia!

From “Non-Refundable Aid” to “Resource Swaps,” to “Shared Responsibility” NATO members need to foot the bill. Meaning “No Free Lunches” on its USAID Menu. The US policy of Resource Swaps that Ukraine offer rare earth minerals as a form of payment for financial support in the Ukraine-Russia is not new. US Senator Lindsey Graham had stated last year that the US stands to financially gain from Ukraine’s vast agricultural sector and “two to seven trillion dollars’ worth” of rare earth minerals. “This war is about money.” Ukraine is the richest country in all of Europe for rare earth minerals.

The Truth, the former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – while speaking in a joint Press Conference with Britain Foreign Secretary: “If you look at the investments that we made in Ukraine’s defense to deal with this aggression, 90 percent of the security assistance we provided has actually been spent here in the US with our Military-Industrial Complex manufacturers for production, and that’s produced more American jobs, more growth in our own economy”. The Ukrainian Media has also claimed only a third of aid reaches Ukraine. Blinken calls “US war aid to Ukraine a ‘Win-Win’ that we need to continue. War for Profit.” Victoria Nuland, former US Under Secretary of State said, “We have to remember that the bulk of this money is going right back into this economy to make those weapons…” (CNN interview)

Today, the US has openly put a price tag on its support for Ukraine, the “US Aid” fully exposes its selfish nature. The US has not made any contributions to resolving the Russia-Ukraine war; instead, it has exploited the situation for its own benefits. Ukraine’s rare earth resources and the Europe’s arms orders have all become targets for US exploitation. The world is looking up to President Trump’s promise to end the war.

‘Trump Trend’ of ‘Quid Pro Quo’ : “Seeking their Share”

This ‘Trump Trend’ of ‘Quid Pro Quo’ set in motion “Seeking their Share” will encourage NATO members also “Seeking their Share.” for providing aid to Ukraine will expect economic returns.

Most of the military and economic aid given to Ukraine has been in the form of grants, not loans. Countries like the US, Germany, and the UK have provided billions in military aid, equipment, and financial support without expecting direct repayment or benefits in return so far.

NATO members looking at the long-term benefits:

Defense Industry Gains: The US and European arms manufacturers are seeing increased demand, both from Ukraine and from NATO countries replenishing their own stockpiles.
Reconstruction Contracts: Once the war ends, Ukraine will need massive reconstruction, and Western companies (especially from donor nations) will likely get major contracts.
Geopolitical Influence: Strengthening Ukraine against Russia aligns with NATO’s broader strategic interests in Europe, reinforcing alliances and deterring future aggression.
Frozen Russian Assets: There’s also an ongoing debate about using frozen Russian assets (hundreds of billions held in Western banks) to help Ukraine. If that happens, it might reduce the financial burden on NATO countries. However, President Trump is not likely to endorse this idea.
EU Membership: If Ukraine joins the EU, it will integrate more deeply into the European economy, benefiting investors and businesses from NATO nations. Trade, infrastructure, and energy partnerships could emerge, ensuring that supporting Ukraine pays off in the long run.

NATO members may not be seeking an immediate “Pound or Euro” return, they are definitely considering long-term economic, strategic, and political gains.

Peace for Ukraine at What Cost?

President Trump having spoken to both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him on 12th Feb, and Trump ordered top US officials to begin talks on ending the War in Ukraine.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth He covered the administration’s views on Ukraine’s future borders and defence assurances in Brussels. He made it clear that the US was shifting its focus towards its homeland and the Asia Pacific region, which meant scaling back in Europe! “We will only end this devastating war – and establish a durable peace”, Hegseth told fellow members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of 57 countries militarily backing Ukraine, on 12th Feb.

A “Lose-Lose” Scenario for Ukraine:

Military Stalemate & Attrition: Despite billions in aid, Ukraine has struggled to achieve major territorial gains. With ammunition shortages and manpower challenges, prolonging the war could weaken Ukraine in the long run.
Western Fatigue & Political Shifts :The US and European countries are showing signs of aid fatigue. Political changes the Trump presidency in the US with  “America FirstPolicy” could further reduce support.
Economic Strain: Ukraine’s economy is under severe stress, with infrastructure destruction, a declining workforce, and dependence on Western funding. If that support falters, Ukraine could face financial collapse.
Russia’s Adaptation: Sanctions haven’t crippled Russia as expected. Instead, its economy has adjusted, and its military has adapted to prolonged warfare, making a decisive Ukrainian victory harder.
Diplomatic Isolation Risk: If the West US led NATO nations shift toward pressuring Ukraine into negotiations, Ukraine might be forced into a peace deal that doesn’t fully restore its territorial integrity, security concerns will leave it in a weakened and vulnerable state.

West the US led NATO having raised the bar of a ‘Win-Win’ situation for Ukraine appears to be leading to a ‘Lose-Lose’ situation for Ukraine with an interesting shift in the Ukraine conflict’s dynamics. Initially, Western support framed the situation as a “Win-Win” for Ukraine—military aid, economic assistance, and diplomatic backing were supposed to strengthen Ukraine while weakening Russia but it has taken a U Turn with the country devastated in all respects and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rightly has sharply criticized the US proposal to tie future military aid for Ukraine to access to its rare earth resources, calling the move “Very Egotistic, Very Self-Centered.” Now it is a Wait and Watch Scenario for Zelensky and what future holds for Ukraine and their future is totally dependent on the Trump Administration policies.