Eurasia Press & News
The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have agreed to merge with Damascus’s new government.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces make a deal with Syria’s new government, Russian President Vladimir Putin says he’s open to a cease-fire in Ukraine (but there’s a catch), and U.S. President Donald Trump looks to pursue his ambitions in Panama.
The Future of U.S. Counterterrorism Operations in Syria
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group that controls a significant chunk of northeast Syria, agreed on Monday to merge with the interim government in Damascus and integrate with the new state institutions. The deal, which the United States reportedly encouraged behind the scenes, is a big win for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa as he works to unite the country and its many factions after years of devastating civil war.
The SDF, a U.S.-backed coalition of militias that’s played a central role in the fight against the Islamic State, is now set to hand over control of various civil and military institutions to the new government—including oil and gas fields and an airport. The deal also means that responsibility for prison and detainee camps packed with thousands of Islamic State fighters will be passed from the SDF to the new Syrian government.
All of this raises important questions about the future not just of Syria and the region, but also of the U.S. counter-Islamic State mission in Syria.
Integration and stabilization. The SDF agreement offers a pathway to political representation for Syrian Kurds, who faced oppression at the hands of the Assad regime. The merger could also potentially help ease tensions between the SDF and Turkey, which regards the Kurdish-led militia alliance as a terror group. Ankara has also backed Syrian rebel groups that have fought with the SDF, including in the wake of the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.
The Turkish government has so far applauded the deal as a positive step forward. The agreement was announced just weeks after the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group affiliated with the SDF that has fought an insurgency against Turkey for years, called for its members to disband and disarm.
Still, it remains to be seen precisely how the integration process will be carried out, and Syria still faces an array of serious problems in this precarious transitional period. The deal comes on the heels of days of sectarian violence in western Syria that led to hundreds of civilian deaths—clashes that spiraled out of an ambush on government security forces by Assad loyalists. The recent violence is indicative of the vast challenges that al-Sharaa faces in establishing a nationwide cease-fire.
But retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw U.S. military operations in the Middle East from 2016 to 2019 as the commander of U.S. Central Command, is cautiously optimistic about the recent SDF merger and its potential to help stabilize Syria.
“This is a good move” that helps lay out a political path for the SDF and Kurds more generally, Votel told SitRep, while cautioning that there’s “certainly a lot left to be worked out.”
“What we’ll have to pay attention to is how long it takes to actually implement this,” Votel said.
U.S. military presence. The SDF’s merger with the new government could also have significant implications for U.S. counterterrorism operations in Syria, and it raises questions about the U.S. military’s ongoing presence in the country amid concerns about the potential for a resurgence of the Islamic State.
The Islamic State remains a “very serious threat” in Syria, Votel said, pointing to a spike in attacks by the group in northeast Syria in the last six to nine months. “They are trying to reassert themselves,” Votel warned.
There are roughly 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria to help keep the Islamic State in check. If the SDF merger moves forward successfully, Votel believes that “it will eventually lead to the departure of American forces from Syria.”
“That could have an impact on our CT [counterterrorism] operations in that part of the Levant,” Votel said. “I’m a little bit concerned about that, but I think there’s a lot left to be worked out before we know what direction all this goes.”
Trump, who has expressed a desire to see the U.S. less involved in foreign conflicts (well, sort of), has pushed for a troop withdrawal from Syria. “Syria is its own mess. They got enough messes over there. They don’t need us involved in every one,” Trump said earlier this year.
Votel said that it’s “too early” to make a decision on withdrawing troops and that the United States should be “patient,” but also that the merger represents a good step by the Trump administration “to get the SDF moving forward and provide an opportunity for us to relook at our posturing as well.”
The Defense Department has reportedly drawn up plans for withdrawing troops from Syria, but it does not appear that any firm decisions have been made on a pullout. A Pentagon spokesperson on Thursday told SitRep, “We do not have anything to provide at this time” when questioned about the potential for a withdrawal.
Jailbreak threat. Opponents of a U.S. withdrawal warn that it would increase the risk of the Islamic State regaining a foothold in Syria, particularly given that the SDF has leaned heavily on the United States in terms of maintaining the prisons where Islamic State fighters are held.
A U.S. withdrawal would be a “big mistake,” Colin P. Clarke, the director of research at the Soufan Group and a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told SitRep, warning that the Islamic State is “likely gearing up” to attempt a jailbreak in the near future.
Clarke said that Trump deserves credit for doing a “good job” against the Islamic State in his first term, during which the group’s so-called caliphate across Iraq and Syria collapsed. Though the SDF deal gives Trump “the top cover he needs to pull troops out of Syria,” Clarke added, the president could potentially be convinced against greenlighting a withdrawal if he’s warned that doing so could lead the Islamic State issue to “flare up” again and risk ruining his legacy.
