Eurasia Press & News
PARIS – Three judges in Paris will issue their verdict on Monday in the embezzlement case against Marine Le Pen, the firebrand leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National. A conviction could upend French politics, as prosecutors are seeking a five-year ban from public office that would prevent her from running in the 2027 presidential election.
Marine Le Pen’s political future – and, potentially, France’s – will be decided in Room 2.01 of the Paris Criminal Court.
The politician and 24 other members of the Rassemblement National (formerly Front National) are accused of embezzling €3 million between 2004 and 2016 by organising what prosecutors called a “system” that used European Parliament assistants for party work in France.
If found guilty, Le Pen risks five years in prison, a €300,000 fine, and – crucially – a five-year ban on running for political office, potentially with immediate effect.
For now, the RN leader remains confident, asserting that such a ruling would have no impact on her party’s ability to “defend the French people” or “hold the government accountable if necessary”.
However, if the judges follow the prosecutor’s recommendations, Le Pen would be unable to run for a fourth time in the 2027 presidential election, triggering an unprecedented reshuffle within the far-right movement.
Le Pen would not be forced to give up her seat in France’s National Assembly even with a conviction, as long as any appeals continue.
In 2022, the leader of the RN won 41.45% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election against Emmanuel Macron, the highest result ever achieved by the French far right in a national election. In 2002, her father Jean-Marie le Pen won just 17.8% of the vote against Jacques Chirac.
Bardella, the Successor
If Le Pen is convicted, the likely successor as leader of the RN is the party’s 29-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, who has been tipped as a rising political star on the right.
“In the presidential race, Bardella could push for a much more economically liberal programme than Marine Le Pen’s, aiming to absorb what remains of the mainstream right,” said political scientist Jean-Yves Camus, a specialist in the far right.
Bardella, a member of European Parliamet who also leads the EU-level Patriots for Europe group, has never been directly elected to office in France and lacks strong regional roots. However, he enjoys significant support among young people on social media and is actively cultivating an international profile.
In February, Jordan Bardella attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington and has been advocating for the creation of a “Ministry for Government Efficiency” in France, modelled on Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Just days ago, he was in Jerusalem for a conference on anti-Semitism organised by the Israeli far right.
Could this make him a stronger presidential candidate than Le Pen? Many political observers seem to think so, arguing that she remains too marked by past defeats and still carries the burdens of her father’s highly divisive political legacy. Some even hope for judicial leniency on Monday, fearing that a conviction could clear the path for Bardella to make a bid for the Élysée.
But predicting the broader impact of Marine Le Pen’s potential conviction on French politics remains difficult.
“If you look at the past ten years, no one has managed to unite the far right under a single candidacy,” notes Jean-Yves Camus. “I don’t see why Bardella would succeed where others have failed.”
“A Catastrophe for Democracy”
Since the trial began on 1 October, RN officials have consistently denounced what they describe as the “politicisation” of the French judiciary and the alleged bias of the magistrates handling the case. If their leader is convicted, they warn, it would be “a catastrophe for democracy”.
For now, no one within the party has broken ranks – not even Jordan Bardella, although he did candidly remark last November that it was essential to have “a clean criminal record” to represent the party.
Le Pen has also received support from French Prime Minister François Bayrou, who said in January that the prospect of her being declared ineligible was “deeply troubling”. However, it is worth noting that the centrist Bayrou faced a fight just days later for his own political survival during the battle over the 2025 budget in parliament.
“I’ll wait for the verdict, and then I’ll make my decision,” Le Pen said about her political future in an interview with Le Figaro on 25 March.
It appears that the RN has no official “Plan B” in place should the party’s leader be convicted. “We don’t talk about it – we might be in denial. It’s the one topic no one wants to discuss,” an influential RN MP admitted to Le Figaro a few months ago.
To avoid making waves, the RN’s communicators prefer to remain cautious: “Until 31 March, for every (re)membership, receive a poster signed (A4) by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella”, the party said in a newsletter sent out on Friday.
