Eurasia Press & News
The spectacular conquest of large parts of Syrian territory and cities such as Homs, Daraa, Aleppo, and Damascus, and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government in early December, surprised the world.
Syrian Islamists led by the organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) managed, after many years of being largely pushed into the Idlib province, to make a 180-degree turnaround and capture large parts of the country. Although the war in Syria is not over yet, and it is uncertain when it will end, HTS has positioned itself as the new ruler of Syria after the ousting of Assad’s regime, and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani (also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa) is a political star.
Although HTS fighters overthrew the authoritarian Assad regime, which the West despised not because of its authoritarianism but for rejecting Western dictates (e.g., the Qatar-Turkey pipeline), this organization should never be idealized because they are not the bringers of democracy, peace, freedoms, and human rights. Quite the opposite. HTS has long been rightly labeled as a terrorist organization by much of the world (with a radical Salafi-Wahhabi ideology), and its past actions show a radical and criminal character. This will not change, even if influential countries remove the group from the list of terrorist organizations.
The story of the emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) did not begin in January 2017 when the organization was formally established. The group took its current form at that time, which is now well-known to the world. However, the roots of HTS can be traced back to the early stages of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, when numerous Islamist and jihadist groups took advantage of the chaos in the country to try to impose themselves and gain power.
The Formation of Al-Nusra Front
The formal precursor to HTS was the well-known terrorist organization Al-Nusra Front. It was founded in January 2012 as the Syrian branch of the infamous Al-Qaeda, which was then led by Ayman al-Zawahiri, one of the masterminds behind the horrific terrorist attack on New York on September 11, 2001.
From 2012 to 2013, Al-Nusra officially called itself: the Front for the Victory of the Levant’s People by the Mujahideen of the Levant on the fields of Jihad. The founding of Al-Nusra was an attempt by Al-Qaeda to expand its influence in Syria, which was in complete chaos. Leaders of the ultra-radical organization saw an opportunity to exploit Sunni Muslims to continue leading their global jihadist revolution, which had hit a dead-end. The outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011 gave Al-Qaeda a new opportunity.
Al-Qaeda’s Syrian Branch
The formal and real connection of Al-Nusra Front with Al-Qaeda gave the organization legitimacy among international jihadists and ensured financial and logistical support from outside Syria—primarily from sponsors in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Pakistan, and Turkey. Al-Nusra positioned itself as one of the most organized and efficient opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad’s government. The soldiers of Al-Nusra were disciplined and skilled, and they captured important cities and villages.
Al-Nusra had been led from its early days by the current HTS leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. He built a reputation as a charismatic leader with both military and ideological authority. Although the connection to Al-Qaeda was initially an advantage, over time it became the main problem preventing the organization’s progress. Al-Nusra became a target for international airstrikes and sanctions, and its association with global terrorism made it difficult to gain local support.
The Transformation into Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
In late July 2016, al-Jolani announced that Al-Nusra would sever its ties with Al-Qaeda and established a new organization—Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest of the Levant). This was primarily a pragmatic decision, much less ideological. Al-Jolani wanted to rid the group of the negative stigma associated with Al-Qaeda, which had hindered its expansion among broader segments of Syrians, and it damaged the organization’s reputation internationally.
The name change to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham was intended to signal a commitment to the local Syrian context (i.e., “Syrianization”) and a distancing from global jihad. However, technically, the severing of ties with Al-Qaeda did not mean a true break with the ideology of radical Islamism.
In secret, the newly branded Al-Nusra continued to maintain covert ties with Al-Qaeda, as well as strategic and operational cooperation. Many key leaders and operatives retained their extremist views, which they had cosmetically adjusted to the reality on the ground. These were tactical, not strategic, changes.
The Formation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
At the end of January 2017, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham merged with several smaller Islamist groups, including Jaysh al-Ahrar, Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki movement, forming what is now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The goal of merging various Islamist groups was to create a more unified Islamist movement capable of establishing dominance in the northwestern province of Idlib and effectively fighting against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. By merging, they also hoped to address issues such as factional divisions, internal conflicts, and a lack of coordination. HTS wanted to present itself as the most important opposition force in Syria.
Although it officially severed all formal ties with Al-Qaeda and emphasized Syrian goals, many analysts rightly believe that the establishment of HTS was a classic cosmetic and tactical move, not a true ideological shift. It turned out once again that “the wolf may change its fur, but not its nature.” The ideology, leadership, and methods of operation were copied from radical Islamism, and the connection to global jihadist networks remained a key characteristic of the group.
The U.S. government claims that the link between HTS and Al-Qaeda still exists, describing HTS as “a vehicle to advance Al-Qaeda’s position in the Syrian insurgency and promote its own goals.” This was also concluded in 2018 based on intelligence data from the United Nations, which noted that communication between the two groups persisted. For this reason, the U.S. added HTS to its list of terrorist organizations in May 2018. The same was done by the United Kingdom, Canada, Russia, Turkey, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Indonesia, the EU, and the UN.
Al-Jolani – The Syrian Vučić
Syria’s Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS). Photo Credit: Mehr News AgencySyria’s Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS). Photo Credit: Mehr News Agency
There is no doubt that the leader of HTS, Abu Muhammed al-Jolani, can be compared to the Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić. While Vučić was one of the leaders of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in the 2000s, he and his radicals were unable to come to power due to their refusal to accept the European Union and their open advocacy for a Greater Serbia. As a result, no political party wanted to form a coalition with them. However, in the autumn of 2008, Tomislav Nikolić and Vučić made a turnaround and founded the new Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The radicals thus became rebranded progressives overnight. They accepted EU accession, but quietly continued to advocate for the Greater Serbia policy. It was a purely tactical move to come to power. It wasn’t a real 180-degree turn that resulted from a spiritual revival in the monasteries of the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Literally everything the Serbian radicals did in 2008 was repeated by Syrian jihadists in 2016 and 2017. HTS formally “deradicalized” by accepting other opposition groups, rejecting the global Islamist revolution, and somewhat tolerating Christians and other minorities. In reality, they adjusted their ideals to the situation on the ground. Pure pragmatism, in short. Whether al-Jolani did all of this with the cosmetic Vučić-like transformation in mind is hard to say. But it’s that type of politics. Both Vučić and al-Jolani adopted the saying: “When you can’t beat someone, join them.” Vučić joined the European Union, and al-Jolani joined the Syrian opposition and the international community.
Rhetoric Focused on Syria
HTS is deeply inspired by the Salafi-jihadist ideology. Salafism is a conservative form of Islam that advocates for a return to the “pure” practice of Islam as practiced by the first Muslims. Combined with jihadism, the Salafi ideology advocates armed struggle as a legitimate way to establish Islamic rule and eliminate “non-Islamic” systems. From time to time, al-Jolani loses patience with political correctness, and statements like, “With this spirit… not only will we reach Damascus, but if Allah wills, Jerusalem will be waiting for our arrival,” slip out.
However, in recent years, HTS officials have rarely mentioned a global caliphate in their statements and press releases. Instead, they focused on the “overthrow of the criminal Assad regime and the expulsion of Iranian militias.” They also emphasized their campaign against the Islamic State and its allies in Syria. HTS aimed for unity among jihadist groups and refused to negotiate with Assad. Al-Jolani’s charisma and strategic vision played a key role in maintaining cohesion within the organization and gradually gaining support from the Syrian population.
Rule Before the Conquest of Damascus
From 2017 to 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was loyal to the Syrian Salvation Government, which served as an alternative government to the Syrian opposition in the Idlib province, counterbalancing Assad’s government in Damascus. After all, HTS established this government to provide basic services such as healthcare, education, and the distribution of humanitarian aid. In addition to Idlib, HTS was operationally present in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, and Damascus. From 2021 until the major offensive and conquest of Damascus in late autumn 2024, HTS was the most powerful opposition organization in Syria. In 2022, the organization had between 6,000 and 15,000 members.
Although the organization officially adhered to the Salafi school of Islam, the High Council of Fatwas of the Syrian Salvation Government also included ulemas from the Ash’ari and Sufi traditions. In its legal system and educational curriculum in areas under its control, HTS implemented Shafi’i thought and taught the importance of the four classical Sunni madhabs (Islamic legal schools). HTS members considered Sharia law the fundamental law and advocated for its implementation in all aspects of society. In areas under their control, HTS established their own Sharia courts, which replaced the Syrian secular courts. However, their interpretation of Sharia was characterized as rigid, especially when it came to the rights of women and religious minorities. HTS opposed foreign interference in the Syrian war but showed pragmatism in its relations with Turkey, which had significant influence in northwestern Syria.
Repression
Throughout its existence, HTS has been accused of numerous crimes, both against the civilian population and rival groups, as well as its own members. Although the group tried to present itself as a legitimate opposition force in Syria, its rule was marked by widespread repression. HTS established a strict regime: the introduction of Sharia courts that handed down punishments such as flogging, amputation of limbs, and executions without fair trials. HTS has been accused of arbitrary arrests and detaining journalists, activists, humanitarian workers, and anyone expressing dissent against its policies. In many cases, detainees were subjected to torture to extract confessions. On several occasions, HTS violently dispersed protesters against their rule in Idlib, using force against civilians demanding freedom and justice. Cases of murder and injury to unarmed protesters have been recorded.
HTS frequently confiscated the property of civilians under the pretext of “Islamic law” or alleged connections to Assad’s regime. The confiscated property was used to fund military operations or as war spoils. Although HTS primarily operated in areas where Sunni Muslims were the majority, their radical ideology led to the persecution of religious and ethnic minorities, such as Alawites, Christians, and Druze. The group was responsible for the destruction of religious buildings and forced conversion of minority communities to Islam. HTS members executed soldiers from rival factions, often without trial. Public executions were meant to serve as a warning to opponents. Members of the organization used classic terrorist methods, including car bombs and suicide attacks, not only against Assad’s regime but also against other opposition forces they saw as a threat to their dominance.
Uncertain Future
After the conquest of Damascus and large parts of Syria on December 8, 2024, the Syrian Salvation Government was replaced by the Syrian Transitional Government, where all the old ministers remained in their positions. The first temporary government operated until March 1, and a new interim government was appointed on March 29, including Christians, Druze, and Alawites. These technical changes are unlikely to lead to stabilization. The future of Syria under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains uncertain.
It is highly questionable whether the group has the necessary capabilities to govern Syria while the civil war continues, and other opposition groups such as other “moderate” Islamists, pro-Turkish forces, Kurds, and ISIL still control large parts of the country. By the end of 2024, HTS received support from other militant groups and secular organizations, but in the long run, their ability to consolidate their successes is uncertain. It is more likely that Syria will follow the path of Libya into new wars rather than experience an Afghan scenario where the Taliban took control of the country. Al-Jolani recently stated that it would take three years to draft a new constitution, and elections could be held only after four years. The statement is actually a sign of his desire for a one-party dictatorship that will first be imposed by force, and later sealed with a quasi-democracy after several years. Despite the triumph over Assad, al-Jolani remains only one of the aspirants for the new ruler of Syria, not its assured future prime minister or president. The Syrian question is far from resolved.
