Eurasia Press & News
The inauguration of the new US administration has set in motion a series of global developments. Chief among them are efforts to bring an end to the war in Ukraine and to extend the ceasefire in Gaza. The message from the new US President, Donald Trump – “America First” – also signals to leaders around the world that their own countries should take precedence.
While Trump’s arrival primarily sent shockwaves throughout the EU, its effects are now increasingly being felt across the Western Balkans as well – particularly following the introduction of unilateral US tariffs on goods and services. His ascent to power has ushered in a sense of uncertainty, as long-standing paradigms are being overturned. The situation in Serbia is deeply complex and cannot be viewed in simple “black-and-white” terms. At a time when Trump aims to bring peace to the world, student protests in Serbia are becoming increasingly radicalised. The appointment of non-partisan university professor Djuro Macut as Prime Minister-designate offers Serbia an opportunity to begin a new chapter in its socio-political development and to defuse the existing antagonisms within society.
Serbia has succeeded in establishing effective communication with the Trump administration, as evidenced by the postponement of sanctions against the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS). These relations will be especially significant in the context of the ongoing dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, as well as in relation to rare minerals, of which Serbia possesses substantial reserves. At present, Serbia is facing four acute challenges: apart from the long-standing Kosovo issue, there is the increasingly likely departure of Milorad Dodik (SNSD) from power in the Republika Srpska entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina; the outbreak of student protests following the sudden collapse of a canopy at the Novi Sad railway station on 1 November 2024; and the imposition of 37% US tariffs on Serbian exports, which are particularly affecting the automotive industry, tyre production, metal goods, the defence sector, and related industries. Enhancing trade relations with neighbouring countries and across the Balkan region could cushion the negative impact of the imposed tariffs.
Seizing the upcoming geopolitical opportunity
As we pointed out previously, Serbia has long been a hub for the operations of numerous foreign intelligence services, with some playing an active role in current developments. Its relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina – particularly Serb–Bosniak relations – are at their lowest point. Serbia could enhance its international standing by stabilising the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and promoting a trilateral partnership between BiH, Serbia and the United States. The future of Republika Srpska is tied to the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as any attempt to unravel the Dayton Peace Agreement could prove dangerous for the entity itself. In the wake of the recent parliamentary elections in Kosovo, the return of Serbs to Kosovo’s institutions and their participation in the future government has become essential. Later in the autumn, following local elections, Serb officials should take a strong role within their local communities in Kosovo. Such steps by the Serbian authorities would help strengthen the country’s international and regional position, especially in relation to the United States. The new US administration favours global peace over renewed conflict.
Zoran Đinđić once remarked: “No division is greater than the shared longing for a better future. Don’t view one another as adversaries, but as people equally entitled to dream, to think, and to hope. Only through dialogue – not division – can we create a society we all want to live in.” Đinđić was widely recognised for his consistent emphasis on unity, meaningful dialogue, and the pursuit of a better society.
According to analysts, Serbia should continue the process of rebranding and repositioning itself in both regional and international affairs. Through the BiH–Serbia–US trilateral framework, all parties stand to benefit, and it would contribute to stabilising the situation in the region.
Student voices matter for Serbia’s future
Serbia’s youth should become a driving force in shaping a country that serves all its citizens and secures a stable and prosperous future. As a vital segment of society, students deserve careful and considered responses to their demands. Their voice must be respected, but this must not come at the expense of the progress already achieved in the country’s socio-political development. Fostering active citizenship across all segments of society is key to ensuring greater social cohesion and building a better and more prosperous Serbia.
In the present situation, Serbia faces a choice between chaos and stability, between division and unity. It is the country’s youth who are most concerned about its future – and who have the power to lead it in the right direction, but only if they act with patriotism, wisdom, strategic focus, and a clear vision. Young people in Serbia must not remain hostages to the current state of affairs; instead, they should become the catalysts defining the course of Serbia’s future. The key question is how to turn these aspirations into real change that benefits everyone. Serbia must not drift toward its own downfall but instead unite in its diversity and build a future worth striving for.
Through their active involvement, students have pushed the opposition off the political and public stage. The opposition suffered a fiasco over the recent disruption in the Serbian Parliament, during which it resorted to tactics previously used by Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement (LVV) in Kosovo. To regain relevance, Serbia’s opposition must consolidate and renew itself – starting with new leadership and the formulation of coherent political programmes to offer in future elections.
Students have put forward four key demands: ● Full disclosure of all documentation regarding the reconstruction of the Novi Sad railway station, along with criminal accountability for the deaths of 16 people ● Identification and prosecution of those responsible for attacks on students and professors ● Dismissal of criminal charges against those arrested and detained during the student protests ● An increase in the budget for higher education.
A fifth demand was later introduced, calling for the identification of the technology used during the 15 March protest, those who authorised and deployed it, and the immediate opening of legal proceedings. The incident was triggered by an unidentified sound that caused panic among protesters. A sixth demand was then introduced, addressing the responsibility of hospital management for allowing the president and members of the media to enter the intensive care unit. How much longer the state, as a living organism, can continue enabling students to generate new demands as a pretext for ongoing protests remains anyone’s guess. In Serbia, it seems this could go on indefinitely.
Analysts suggest that an “invisible hand” may be steering the student protests. In Serbia, nothing happens spontaneously or by chance – a pattern often confirmed later, when the underlying forces behind key developments come to light, many of which have had a lasting impact on the country’s future. The current moment should be seized as an opportunity for positive change. A wise and thoughtful government listens – or at least pays close attention – to its citizens, and students are no exception. Young people have a right to their future. The ongoing unrest in Serbia underscores the urgent need for well-functioning democratic institutions and the rule of law throughout the region – both essential prerequisites for EU membership. To move beyond the current crisis, Serbia needs a new social contract.
Serbia finds itself in a situation where one segment of society favours organising mass assemblies as a mode of socio-political action, while another adheres to the constitutional framework grounded in parliamentary democracy as the recognised system of governance. The notion of direct democracy cannot replace representative democracy unless it transforms itself through active and direct decision-making within representative political organisations. This amounts to a choice between a form of political idealism and parliamentary democracy with all its inherent limitations. At its core, such a shift would amount to an unconstitutional change in the political system. Student demands are real and should be acknowledged. However, for any resolution to be reached, concrete proposals must be made, followed by dialogue – because only dialogue holds the key to resolving the current situation.
Military alliances are fuelling an arms race
The defence ministers of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo recently signed the Joint Declaration on Defence Cooperation, aiming to strengthen security across Southeast Europe and the Adriatic–Ionian region. The declaration underscores the importance of joint efforts in responding to new security challenges, hybrid threats, and other risks that may undermine regional, European, and international stability – a move that prompted condemnation from Serbia. Just days later, Serbia and Hungary signed the Plan of Bilateral Military Cooperation for 2025 in Belgrade.
Former US National Security Advisor and Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton remarked: “I don’t believe there should be any room for military alliances in Europe other than NATO. Ultimately, I think the goal of most states in Europe and the Balkans is to become members of NATO. With regard to Ukraine’s membership in NATO, that’s the one red line Russia is not willing to tolerate. Finland and Sweden have reached the same conclusion—that after 75 years of neutrality, their complete security lies only behind NATO’s borders.” [2] Bolton stressed that any military alliance outside NATO is aimed against Serbia and other countries, which, in his view, represents both a risk and a step backward.
Military alliances in the Western Balkans are both complex and dynamic, encompassing a range of interests – from aspirations to join NATO, to cooperation with Russia, and the EU’s evolving role in the region. While membership in NATO or the EU is crucial for ensuring stability, countries in the Balkans continue to grapple with the challenge of balancing foreign policy priorities against the backdrop of the regional and global security context. Ultimately, the region’s stability will depend on each country’s ability to overcome internal divisions and pursue shared objectives within the framework of international alliances.
Analysts argue that new military alliances are fuelling an arms race and introducing new threats to the region. It is therefore important to remember that the EU was founded as a peace project. Given the Western Balkans’ recent history of armed conflict, it is crucial that this still volatile region be fully integrated into the European peace framework represented by the EU – so that Europe may finally become a continent of lasting peace and enduring stability.
A new government, a new hope
On 6 April, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) appointed Professor Djuro Macut, MD, PhD, as Prime Minister-designate following the resignation of former Prime Minister Miloš Vučević (SNS). Macut is a non-partisan figure and a medical doctor by profession. Expectations among Serbian citizens are high, as they view the new government as a new source of hope. As incoming prime minister, Macut will be faced with a complex domestic landscape marked by student protests and deep-seated divisions within Serbian society, which he will have to mitigate by initiating dialogue with various social groups in order to reach a consensus on the country’s future. Since the onset of the student protests, Serbia has lost more than 700 million euros in foreign investment, with total damages estimated at approximately two billion euros. The new government will have to rebuild public trust in state institutions and demonstrate strong competence, supported by a renewed team.
Beyond the political crisis and widespread public distrust, there is an urgent need to rebuild confidence in institutions and the rule of law, contain inflation and rising prices, and adopt measures to protect the most vulnerable members of society. The new government must also address the impact of recently introduced unilateral US tariffs, which affect Serbia both directly and indirectly through tariffs imposed on the EU, given that the majority of Serbian exports are directed toward EU countries.
Regional instability presents challenges for regional diplomacy, efforts to accelerate EU integration, and the attraction of new investments – all pressing priorities facing the new government.
Any obstruction of Serbia’s path toward EU membership must be avoided. The next political agreement should include a so-called “European clause” – a commitment by all political actors not to hinder the adoption of legislation critical to the country’s accession process. At the same time, the EU must take responsibility by opening negotiations related to Cluster 3. This brings us back to the question: Quo vadis, Serbia?
The fight against crime and corruption is crucial – and it can only truly begin when the government confronts these issues within its own ranks. Serbia has initiated this fight, but the process must now be intensified– both vertically and horizontally. The European perspective continues to be a central pillar of Serbia’s political agenda.
