Eurasia Press & News
In his second term, Trump escalates his ‘America First’ agenda by challenging Egypt’s sovereignty over the Suez Canal, demanding free passage for US ships
U.S. President Donald Trump has once again trained his eyes on Egypt, demanding, in what felt less like a diplomatic request and more like a dictate, fee-free passage for U.S. military and commercial ships through the Suez Canal.
In late April, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, calling for American vessels to transit the canal without paying fees, a direct challenge to Egyptian sovereignty over one of the world’s most vital maritime arteries.
Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy approach has generated widespread controversy at home and abroad. Under the banner of “America First,” Trump escalated his positions during his second term, often at the expense of allies and international norms.
Fresh into his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed Saudi Arabia to pledge over $1 trillion in U.S. investments, revived interest in acquiring Greenland from Denmark, and even floated the provocative idea of annexing Canada. His second term has been defined by high-stakes gambits.
But faced with inflation, a currency crisis, and heavy debt, Egypt cannot afford further erosion of its financial lifelines. Losing Suez Canal revenues, or granting exemptions, would not only deal a crippling economic blow but also risk triggering wider challenges to Egypt’s control over its sovereign assets. Trump’s comments also come as his push to vacate Gaza of its population has soured his relationship with Egypt’s President Abdelfattah El-Sisi.
Ambassador Gamal Bayoumi, a former assistant foreign minister, called Trump’s latest request for free passage “impossible,” citing its violation of the Constantinople Convention governing international navigation and World Trade Organization rules prohibiting discriminatory tariffs or trade privileges.
“Trump will eventually walk back the demand, just as he did with earlier comments about relocating Palestinians,” he told The New Arab, “a proposal he later claimed had been misinterpreted.”
Diplomatic resilience
Diplomacy, Bayoumi added, often follows one of two paths: a firm rebuttal or deliberate silence to avoid legitimizing reckless statements. In this case, he said, Egypt chose silence, not as submission, but as strategic restraint. However, “repeated provocations might necessitate a shift in Cairo’s response strategy.”
The Suez Canal, one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors, was inaugurated in 1869, with Egypt holding over half the capital of the founding company. The remaining shares were divided among European powers, including France, Britain, Austria, and Russia, with the United States entering later as an indirect stakeholder. On July 26, 1956, President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalised the canal, ending foreign control.
The canal contributes around 10% of Egypt’s GDP and generated $9.4 billion in revenues in 2023. Trump’s demand comes as Egypt reels from a nearly two-thirds collapse in canal revenue due to attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, resulting in a staggering $7 billion loss.
During his tenure at Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, Bayoumi said he never encountered a request for toll-free naval passage.
“Even Israel, under the terms of the peace treaty, transits the canal like any other nation, without preferential treatment,” he added.
The U.S. provides Egypt with nearly $1.3 billion in military aid, part of the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, established following the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty; the assistance has enabled Egypt to procure U.S. military equipment, including M1A1 Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter jets, Apache helicopters, and various missile systems.
Earlier this year, when Trump made another controversial proposal to relocate Gaza’s population to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, it was reported that Washington pressured Egypt to accept the plan by threatening to withhold aid. Observers argue that the U.S. can again use this card to pressure Egypt into accepting Trump’s demands.
“Washington cannot impose anything on Cairo,” Bayoumy said. “This is evident by how Egypt’s votes in international forums diverge from U.S. positions approximately seven out of ten time,” he added.
He said that the threat of withdrawing U.S. aid holds little sway, explaining that for every dollar Egypt receives, it spends $66 in the American economy, making any suspension more harmful to the U.S. than to Cairo.
“Foreign aid constitutes less than 2 percent of Egypt’s GDP and does not equate to relinquished sovereignty,” he said.
In the case of Gaza, Journalist and U.S. affairs specialist Ibrahim Al-Darawi pointed to the “malleability” of international law when applied by, or to, the United States and Israel.
He criticised Washington’s use of its United Nations Security Council veto, describing it as “a biased mechanism that has eroded the credibility of global governance and allowed those accused of war crimes to escape accountability.”
“It’s unacceptable that the U.S. continues using its veto to shield Israel from international justice,” al-Darawi said, adding that most of the world supports humanitarian aid to Gaza while Washington blocks action.
“This bias reveals a deep flaw in the system of international justice and turns the veto into a tool of impunity, even for the United States itself,” he added, noting the existence of stalled international trials, even as violations of international law and war crimes persist.
“When the world’s most powerful nation is the one committing the crime, that is a catastrophe of the highest order,” Al-Darawi said.
Political theatrics
Economist Raed Salama argued that understanding Trump’s decision-making style is essential to deciphering his political and economic direction, as the U.S. president operates with the mindset of a “contractor, businessman, and stubborn stockbroker.”
“Egypt’s diplomatic handling of regional crises, especially its firm stance against the proposed relocation of Gaza residents to Sinai, is praiseworthy,” said economist Raed Salama, arguing that Cairo’s position, jointly upheld by Jordan, helped block a plan that could have undermined the Palestinian cause.
“The Egyptian Foreign Ministry would bring the same strategic professionalism to managing the canal dispute, safeguarding national interests without yielding to Trump’s pressure,” he added.
Salama explains that Trump’s strategy typically involves aggressive escalation at the start of any negotiation. By employing a high-stakes tone and direct pressure, he seeks to “force the opposing party into concessions.”
“This is apparent in Trump’s earlier standoff with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,” Salama explained. “It ultimately did not prevent a deal from being signed, as well as his decision to reduce car tariffs after initially raising them.”
Dealing with Trump, Salama argued, requires resilience, adding that his pattern is to retreat only when met with firm resistance.
“Early concessions, on the other hand, embolden him to increase the pressure,” he said.
On Trump’s recent demand for U.S. naval ships to transit the Suez Canal without paying tolls, Salama views the move as more political than economic.
“Such a request would have minimal impact on Egypt’s economy,” he continued, “especially, with the relatively minor contribution of U.S. shipping fees to Suez Canal revenue.”
The American economy, he pointed out, is fundamentally consumption-driven and heavily reliant on imports. The majority of ships heading toward the United States through the Suez are not American, but rather belong to exporting nations. Thus, Trump’s request, in Salama’s view, amounts to little more than a “mirage” or “pipe dream,” with negligible consequences for Egypt.
“The unrealistic nature of Trump’s request is even more apparent, considering that U.S. exports are primarily directed to Europe and Latin America, not through the Suez Canal,” he added.
Strategic autonomy
ِAs for Washington’s recent interest in the Suez Canal, Al-Darawi argued that this could be attributed to Cairo’s efforts to diversify its defence relationships, primarily through closer ties with Russia and China, a trend that has “stirred unease in both the U.S. and Israel.”
“There are international protocols that allow, in certain cases, the passage of military ships for specific countries if there are existing agreements in place. However, the situation is entirely different when it comes to commercial vessels, and this cannot be accepted. Even military arrangements in straits and oceans are typically tied to reciprocal services or mutual military arrangements,” he explained.
Al-Darawi also noted that the Suez Canal is “an entirely Egyptian waterway,” stressing, “The United States neither helped us in digging it, nor in its nationalisation.” On the contrary, during the nationalisation crisis, the United States sided against Egypt.
“History shows that America has never been on our side when it comes to the canal. It was the Egyptians who dug it, and it was the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser who nationalised it,” he added.
He went on to explain that, in his view, Trump’s statements are fully rejected by Egypt, both officially and publicly. He noted that Cairo is responsible for ensuring the safety of navigation through the Suez Canal, handling both incoming and outgoing ships, as part of its duty to protect this vital international waterway. Therefore, he stated, it is only natural for ships to pay fees for these services.
Al-Darawi, however, warned that Trump poses a danger to the United States’ global standing.
“If these policies continue, they may spell the end of the unipolar world order,” he said, urging American civil society to intervene before the damage becomes irreversible.
