Eurasia Press & News
A ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement of Yemen, announced by President Trump on May 6, will not soon restore freedom of navigation through the Red Sea.
The Houthis sought an end to the intensive and continuous U.S. strikes since mid-March, but U.S. acceptance of a ceasefire also demonstrates the limitations of American airpower.
The truce does not commit the Houthis to halt missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory or Israel-linked shipping, causing tensions between the U.S. and Israel.
The threat from the Houthis, as well as U.S. talks with their main backers in Tehran, will feature prominently in President Trump’s visit this week to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar.
On May 6, one week before departing on a significant trip to the region, including visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, President Trump made a surprise announcement during an Oval Office meeting with visiting Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. He stated the Houthis told the U.S. “they don’t want to fight anymore,” and “[The U.S.] will honor that, and we will stop the bombings.” Trump described the agreement as Houthi “capitulation” to Operation Rough Rider, a sustained and intensive campaign of U.S. strikes on Houthi targets since March 15. During the operation, U.S. aircraft deployed on aircraft carriers in the Red Sea attacked more than 1,000 targets, including not only Houthi missile and drone facilities but also fighters, commanders, missile technicians, energy and port facilities, and other installations. The strikes reportedly killed not only hundreds of Houthi personnel but also dozens of civilians not necessarily aligned with the group.
Confirming the agreement on behalf of the Houthis, Badr bin Hamad al Busaidi, the Foreign Minister of the Sultanate of Oman, which hosts a Houthi representative office and mediated the truce, posted a statement on X. His post said: “Following recent discussions and contacts conducted by the Sultanate of Oman with the United States and the relevant authorities in Sana’a, in the Republic of Yemen, with the aim of de-escalation, efforts have resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the two sides. In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping. The Sultanate of Oman expresses its gratitude to both parties for their constructive approach that led to this welcome outcome, and hopes that it will lead to further progress on many regional issues towards achieving justice, peace, and prosperity for all.”
The Houthis’ acceptance of the ceasefire corroborated assessments by U.S. and regional officials that U.S. air operations had severely degraded the Houthis’ arsenal and economic wherewithal to continue their attacks in the Red Sea and the broader region. The Houthis also calculated that agreeing to a truce with the U.S. would end any U.S. or Arab Gulf state consideration of supporting a ground offensive by anti-Houthi forces in Yemen, amid reports that the Republic of Yemen Government and its allies might be preparing to try to recapture the key port of Hodeidah. Experts agree that no ground offensive against the Houthis would succeed without significant U.S. military support. At the same time, Trump’s agreement to a truce reflected the growing financial and operational costs of the airstrike campaign, estimated at more than $2 billion, as well as the broader geostrategic difficulties caused by diverting U.S. assets from other key regional and global missions to the anti-Houthi campaign. Some attribute Trump’s acceptance of the ceasefire to growing international criticism that Operation Rough Rider was causing increasing numbers of civilian casualties and worsening the humanitarian situation in Yemen.
While welcoming the pact, global diplomats and experts cast doubts on its benefits, citing the formal statements from the parties that the truce is narrow and bilateral – leaving open the potential for the Houthis to continue attacking non-U.S. targets in the Red Sea and the broader region. The agreement does not formally commit the Houthis to refrain from striking Israel, or the ships of any country other than the U.S. Houthi spokespersons clarified they would continue to target Israel and “Israeli-linked” ships as long as Israel remains militarily engaged in Gaza – the same formulation the group has used since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Despite claiming that narrow focus, the group has attacked a wide range of commercial shipping with no demonstrable connection to Israel or Israelis. On the other hand, Houthi attacks on shipping had been declining, even before the start of Operation Rough Rider, likely due to the accumulation of U.S. and Israeli strikes on the Houthis’ arsenal and expanded U.S.-led efforts to intercept Iranian shipments of missile and drone technology to the group. Trump and other senior U.S. leaders have not articulated whether they would consider new Houthi attacks on non-U.S. commercial ships in the Red Sea a violation of the pact.
In part because of the ambiguities and uncertainties of the truce, large international shipping companies will not resume using the Red Sea route any time soon, according to the Wall Street Journal. Leaders of the large Danish shipping liner AP Moller-Maersk said publicly last week they are not ready to send ships through the Red Sea again, despite the ceasefire announcement. The hesitancy of global liners to return to the Red Sea casts doubt on Trump officials’ assertions that the ceasefire accomplished the objectives of Operation Rough Rider to restore the free flow of commerce and navigation in the region.
Whereas the application of the truce to Red Sea shipping is unclear, the Houthis have been clear that they will continue to support Palestinians in Gaza by attacking Israeli territory. The ceasefire was announced two days after a Houthi-launched ballistic missile landed within the perimeter of Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport, causing no damage but lightly injuring several persons and interrupting international flights into the country. Israel retaliated with a major attack on the international airport in Sanaa the next day (one day before the U.S.-Houthi truce announcement). Clarifying the Houthi position on the truce, the group’s chief negotiator, Mohammed Abdul Salam, told Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV: “What changed is the American position, but our position remains firm,” stating the deal did not include an end to attacks on Israel. He added the Houthis’ support for the Palestinian people in Gaza “will not change.” On Friday, Israel’s military intercepted a Houthi missile launch the group said was targeting Ben Gurion again – the first Houthi attack since the Trump announcement. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would respond forcefully in Yemen and “wherever necessary,” describing the Houthi missiles as “Iranian.”
The U.S.-Houthi pact’s omission of any application to Israel has aggravated tensions between the U.S. and Israel by suggesting the U.S. has left Israel “on its own” to continue battling the Yemeni militant group. Relations had already been strained over what Israeli leaders believe is Trump’s willingness to consider a new nuclear agreement with Iran that does not prohibit Tehran from continuing to enrich uranium. U.S. and Israeli leaders are also at odds over Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza. One Israeli official told Axios media: “We were shocked that the Trump administration didn’t tell us anything and we learned about it from the television.” Suggesting a separate U.S. peace with the Houthis might have domestic political repercussions; members of Congress from both parties criticized the exclusion of Israel from the ceasefire. A letter signed by several members of the House of Representatives stated: “We are writing to express our serious concern over the agreement reached on May 6 with the Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, which halts U.S. strikes against Houthi targets without addressing the threat to Israel. Shortly after the announcement, the Houthis declared their intent to continue targeting Israeli civilians, despite the agreement with the United States…This decision leaves Israel dangerously vulnerable and fails to confront the broader threat posed by Iran’s proxy network.”
Responding to the backlash, Trump and his team have attempted to assuage Israeli concerns about the Houthi ceasefire and other bilateral disagreements. On Thursday, Trump met with Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to discuss the Iran talks and the war in Gaza, according to reports quoting sources briefed on the meeting. Presidents generally do not meet with foreign officials below the leadership level, suggesting Trump welcomed the Dermer outreach in order to ease tensions with Netanyahu. In an interview with Israeli television, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee suggested the U.S. might retaliate against Houthi attacks on Israel, although on the condition that American citizens were killed or wounded by the Houthis. He stated the death or injury of Americans would make the Houthi attack “immediate [U.S.] business].” His remarks clarified a comment by Trump, who, asked about the Houthi pledge to continue attacking Israel notwithstanding U.S.-Houthi truce, responded, “I’ll discuss that (a U.S. retaliation against the Houthis) if something happens.” And, U.S. officials have indicated the U.S. would continue supplying Israel with the necessary munitions and systems Israel needs to fend off the Houthi barrages.
