Eurasia Press & News
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto warned that in addition to the Middle East, there is another front potentially as explosive, which is Kosovo. The interlocutors of Kosovo Online doubt such a scenario but also warn that any radicalization of the situation in the region could lead to new conflicts.
The concern about a new European front was expressed by Crosetto on October 2nd, in front of the foreign affairs and defense committees of the Chamber and the Senate, during discussions on the crisis between Israel and Lebanon.
He admitted to having fears about developments in a territory that is “much closer to Italy, on the other side of the Adriatic, in the Balkans.”
“Crosetto is a smart man, but I don’t see any conflicts, even though Albin Kurti provokes them every day,” responded Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Prime Minister Kurti replied that the criticism from the international community regarding the treatment of the Kosovo government towards the Serbian community is exaggerated and that the EU and the US are overly concerned about the actions in northern Kosovo.
He also stated that peace in the Western Balkans, especially in Kosovo, is something he has never “taken for granted,” but that the “fragility of peace” is evident worldwide.
“Along with the dangers threatening Europe and the Middle East, the fragility of peace today is evident everywhere in the world,” Kurti warned at the “Balkan Leadership Conference” on the topic “Peace, Stability, and Demographic Transition in the Western Balkans.”
Conflict Potentials
Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences Milan Krstic, in a conversation with Kosovo Online, says that as long as there is unilateral radicalization by the government in Pristina, there is a significant potential for the outbreak of conflict in Kosovo.
“As long as there is unilateral radicalization by the Pristina government, the potential for conflict in Kosovo is great. Only when the entire situation is stabilized, through the reaffirmation of negotiations and the cessation of human rights violations against Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija, can we talk about de-escalation. On the other hand, I don’t think this holds the potential for a broader conflict,” Krstic emphasized.
He warns that the key to this radicalization lies in Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s long-term goal of reducing the number of Serbs in Kosovo to between two and three percent, thus, as he points out, turning them into a “statistical error.”
“Albin Kurti has an agenda with a long-term goal, and that goal is clearly to create a Kosovo where the number of Serbs, according to Tuđman’s calculation, would be less than two or three percent, so that when they become a statistical error, they no longer matter. I believe that this long-term policy he is pursuing will not be stopped without external pressure,” Krstic asserts.
He emphasizes that Serbia must not allow Kurti to “legitimize” his desires and must invest all its resources in influencing international actors to stop the systematic violation of the human rights of Serbs in Kosovo.
“Serbia must act wisely and avoid rushing into mistakes that would give Kurti room to legitimize his claims. At the end of last September, we made a serious mistake that cost lives and, on the other hand, helped Albin Kurti. Now we must be patient and smart, but at the same time, we must appeal and make every effort to invest all resources to persuade international actors to stop what is currently happening in Kosovo and Metohija, which is the gross and systematic violation of the human rights of Serbs,” Krstic stresses.
Political Calculations
The Executive Director of the Council for Strategic Policies, Nikola Lunic, says that despite the serious security context in which the region currently finds itself, there is no potential for a new armed conflict in the Western Balkans.
“We can never disregard the Balkans in the security context. Even the U.S. intelligence community this year assessed that the Western Balkans could experience ethnic incidents,” Lunic emphasizes in a conversation with Kosovo Online.
However, he believes that the statement by Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto regarding Kosovo as a potential front similar to the one in the Middle East is exaggerated.
“This statement by the Italian minister is somewhat exaggerated because, simply, there is no potential for war in the Western Balkans. No one has the capacity, nor will anyone wage war. The demographics do not align with that. Although some politicians have retained the nationalist rhetoric from the 1990s that seeks to mobilize the population, young people are responding to such things very explicitly,” Lunic said.
He emphasized that this is evident in the fact that the entire region faces challenges with voluntary military service, a trend that was particularly prominent in Croatia.
Lunic also pointed out that Prime Minister Albin Kurti should be more concerned about what he described as the exodus of young people leaving Kosovo in increasing numbers.
“In the years leading up to the suspension of mandatory military service in Croatia, 80 to 90 percent of young people invoked conscientious objection. Kurti would be better off, and it would be more effective for society in Kosovo, if he focused on the exodus that is currently happening among ethnic Albanians who are leaving for a better life. This is simply a message to politicians in Kosovo,” Lunic said.
He stressed that everyone in the Western Balkans is focused on peace, stability, and the future.
“Young people, and everyone in the Western Balkans, want peace, stability, perspective, and a secure future,” Lunic concluded.
NATO Umbrella
Analysts in Kosovo, depending on whether you ask those in Pristina or in North Mitrovica, have differing views on the possibility of conflict.
Political analyst from Pristina, Afrim Hoti, believes that despite political turbulence, there is no danger of conflict in the Balkans as long as NATO is present with its forces.
“We cannot compare the risks or dangers in the Balkans to other regions like the Middle East or the problems in Ukraine because we are fortunate to be geographically in Europe. We are fortunate to be, in terms of security, under NATO’s umbrella. As long as NATO is present in the Balkans, I do not see any possibility of conflict. However, I do see the risk of political turbulence, which political leaders use for various political campaigns. On the ground, I do not see any real danger for the Balkans,” Hoti said for Kosovo Online.
Hoti points out that there are political turbulences in the region, but as long as NATO forces are present, there is no real possibility of conflict.
“There are political turbulences. There may be indications or signs on the ground, like the events in Banjska, the terrorist attack in Banjska, but I don’t see any real possibility for conflict in the Balkans as long as NATO and its forces are on the ground,” Hoti said.
Recurring Crises
On the other hand, the executive director of the NGO “Aktiv” from North Mitrovica, Miodrag Milicevic, believes that the danger of new conflicts in Kosovo is real, especially in the north, as crises keep repeating with the possibility of escalation.
“If you look at the last quarter of a century, 25 years, it’s incredible that we haven’t progressed beyond constantly repeating that we are in some kind of crisis, with numerous crises that could escalate into potential conflicts. The international community keeps investing in stabilization instead of progress, which is truly frustrating. On the other hand, it’s also a wake-up call for the international community that not enough has been done to normalize relations and build trust, which would naturally lead to some form of compromise regarding the relationship between Pristina and Belgrade,” Milicevic told Kosovo Online.
According to him, the crisis in the north is not characterized by “one or two incidents,” but by their continuity, which began two years ago.
“These incidents in northern Kosovo have been happening continuously over the last two and a half years, starting in September when the first intervention by special police units occurred in northern Kosovo, prompted by a clash with the local population. It ended with significant consequences for the local population, but also for the special units of the Kosovo Police. That was the beginning, and instead of stabilizing the situation and returning to dialogue, the opposite happened. We’ve seen a consistent avoidance of political dialogue and the imposition of police solutions instead of political ones,” Milicevic emphasized.
He adds that this was the beginning of the deepening crisis in which northern Kosovo still finds itself today, and which representatives of civil society and political analysts have publicly pointed out.
He believes that the turning point was the international community’s call, primarily directed at the authorities in Pristina, to de-escalate the situation, followed by a call to both sides to return to the negotiating table.
“The critical moment occurred when neither side, especially Pristina, was truly prepared to withdraw special police forces from northern Kosovo and, instead of that police intervention, enable political dialogue,” this analyst argues.
He says he doubts that the authorities in Pristina, led by Albin Kurti, will provoke an armed conflict, but he is convinced they will continue to provoke a “general threat.”
“I have no doubt that, especially in this election year, the situation will be turbulent, and I am sure there will be periodic, let’s say, turbulent moments, whether involving special police units or some kind of interventions or perhaps even provocations. These are all things that, as experience teaches us, are very typical for this region,” Milicevic warns.
He believes it is incredible that, at this moment, there is no model for political dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, neither in Brussels nor in Kosovo, nor for dialogue between Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo.
“And what is most important for us in the north is the stabilization of the situation, primarily through early elections, which would mark a period of political stability that we urgently need in northern Kosovo. To that, I would also add the urgency of the return of Serbs to the institutions, at least those who still express a desire to return to those same institutions, so that ultimately both the Brussels Agreement and local legislation are respected. At least in this regard, the law states that the ethnic composition of the police must reflect the ethnic composition of the population on the ground and in the municipalities where they are located,” Milicevic concludes.
Western Concerns
Marko Todorovic, a fellow at the Center for European Policy, points out that human rights violations in Kosovo could lead to further radicalization, which is why Western concerns are justified, though he doesn’t expect a “new front” similar to the one in the Middle East, as Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto recently warned.
“Certain concerns from the West are indeed justified, especially considering that any human rights violations, which are definitely happening in Kosovo and are well-known to international organizations and actors, can always lead to further radicalization and rebellions among those affected. So, in that sense, the potential for certain conflicts certainly exists,” Todorovic told Kosovo Online.
He believes that the Italian defense minister is well-informed about the situation in Kosovo and that the West is concerned about possible unwanted events.
“Guido Crosetto is someone who has been well-acquainted with the situation in Kosovo for a long time. He has spoken about it before. After all, he was the minister when Italian soldiers were injured in Zvecan. From that perspective, it is clear that he is concerned, and that the West, in general, is worried about what might happen in Kosovo. I would say that perhaps the concern is somewhat exaggerated when he says that there is potential for a conflict as explosive in the Balkans as in Gaza, because the regional dynamics and historical circumstances are different, so I don’t believe that a conflict of that scale could occur here,” Todorovic explains.
Commenting on Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s response that the EU and the U.S. are overly concerned about actions in northern Kosovo, Todorovic says that such a statement was expected but is not encouraging.
“He is trying to present all the unilateral moves he has made over the past year and more as purely internal matters of Kosovo, as something a sovereign state has the right to do. In doing so, he ignores the context, which is the dialogue with Belgrade, something Pristina is obligated to engage in according to all international actors,” Todorovic emphasizes.
He expects that the authorities in Pristina may continue with unilateral actions and further provocations directed against Serbs in northern Kosovo.
“I think that this is in the interest of the Pristina authorities,” Todorovic is resolute.
He recalls that after last year’s events in Banjska, Pristina accused Serbia of being a “militant actor” that could threaten security across the entire Balkans.
However, a year later, he believes, Serbia is now seen as a constructive partner.
“I believe it is in Kurti’s interest to keep the situation tense, to create new tensions, and in case Serbia intervenes in any way, Kurti could say, ‘See, I’ve been warning about this all along, and this is what the international community failed to take into account—that Serbia is a dangerous militant actor in the Balkans,'” Todorovic assesses.
He also emphasizes that Pristina perceives that in the event of any intervention by Belgrade, NATO would side with Kosovo.
“This perception is based on the idea that it is hard to change the belief, or let’s say, the entrenched opinion of the international community about who is the ‘good guy’ and who is the ‘bad guy.’ Kosovo expects that NATO will always side with Kosovo. However, given all the statements we’ve heard from Western officials, it seems to me that this belief is unfounded.
In the end, what is perhaps even more important is that Serbia does not appear to be a country ready to get involved, to respond to these provocations, or to enter into conflict and worsen its relations with the West, which have certainly improved over the past year, especially after the purchase of Rafale jets and Serbia’s stronger geopolitical alignment with the West,” Todorovic concludes.
