Eurasia Press & News
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban will host two key meetings of European bodies in Budapest this week. Isolated among EU partners, Orban will be looking to a Trump US election win to bolster his position.
On Thursday and Friday, Budapest’s Puskas Arena will play host to two important European fixtures — with much at stake for the home side. Unusually, these will be political not sporting events: the 4th meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) followed by an informal session of the European Council the next day.
The EPC was founded in 2022 in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s an intergovernmental format for fostering European-wide cooperation beyond EU borders. The EPC comprises all European countries except for Belarus, Russia and the Vatican, but also includes Turkey and the states of the South Caucasus. The European Council is the EU’s meeting of heads of state and government. While lacking legislative power (which belongs to the EU Parliament and Council of Ministers), it is vital for guiding the bloc’s policy agenda.
Regardless of the outcomes of these events, their mere occurrence in Budapest is remarkable. Hungary’s six-month stint as president of the Council of the EU, which ends on December 31, has so far faced a symbolic boycott, with many member states as well as the European Commission choosing to be represented at meetings by officials and not at minister/commissioner level. Technical legislative work has continued while the Hungarian presidency itself has been robbed of symbolic capital.
To boycott or not to boycott?
Orban’s government has long experienced a strained relationship with the various EU institutions and member countries, on account of a deteriorating rule-of-law situation at home and his government’s close ties to Russia. The presidency boycott, however, arose principally “because of Orban’s unauthorised and provocative ‘peace mission’ to Russia and China in early July,” says Peter Balazs, a former EU commissioner and Hungarian foreign minister.
That trip breached protocol with Orban erroneously purporting to represent the EU, not just Hungary, and occasioned a backlash from Brussels and member states. Yet in relation to this week’s Budapest summits. Balazs thinks there’s a degree of hesitation about whether to maintain the boycott.
National leaders, Balazs believes, will have been “wondering what’s better for the EU?”: either to boycott and “thereby give Orban another chance to play the victim vis-à-vis the liberal mainstream”; or to attend and “use this important gathering to make sharp criticisms of Orban’s ‘illiberal regime’ in his own country and before a wide international audience”.
Counting in favour of continuing the boycott is Orban’s trip to Georgia on October 28, where he endorsed the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory following disputed elections, raising issues akin to July’s ‘peace mission’. EU leaders may also have reservations about attending the Budapest meetings given Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s appearance last Thursday at the Russia-led Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security in Belarus.
Szijjarto‘s presence undermined the EU policy of isolating Belarus because of its close ties to Russia. He was photographed enjoying notably cordial interaction with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, with whom he also met privately. Afterwards, the Hungarian foreign minister attempted to deflect criticism, telling journalists: “We have a sovereign right to negotiate with whomever we want.”
Szijjarto’s trip was preceded by a Wednesday meeting at Budapest’s US embassy of ambassadors and defence attaches from NATO countries. A US embassy statement said the meeting was convened “to discuss the security aspects of the Government of Hungary’s recently announced policy of economic ‘neutrality’.” US Ambassador David Pressman said Hungary’s “growing dependencies on Moscow and Beijing have security implications for the US and Euro-Atlantic interests”. Indeed, “that a discussion about an Ally’s ‘neutrality’ policy was necessary speaks for itself”, he added.
Yet, as Balazs argues, fellow European prime ministers may use the Budapest meetings as an opportunity to challenge Orban over his policies and behaviour. The chance that colleagues will deploy their presence, not absence, to embarrass the Hungarian premier are raised by the recent example set by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
When Orban addressed the EU Parliament in Strasbourg on October 9 to outline Hungary’s EU presidency program, von der Leyen didn’t boycott the event, rather she used a response statement to deliver a blistering critique of Orban, accusing him of undermining Europe’s shared response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and EU solidarity.
“There are still some who blame this war not on the invader but on the invaded; not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom,” Von der Leyen said, before castigating an uncomfortable-looking Orban, seated nearby, for weakening EU security.
“How can it be that the Hungarian government invites Russian nationals into our Union without additional security checks? And how can it be that the Hungarian government would allow Chinese police to operate within its territory?” she asked rhetorically.
Balazs thinks it likely that not only von der Leyen but also other European leaders will repeat this strategy in Budapest. Geza Jeszenszky, a fellow former foreign minister who has also served at different times as ambassador in Washington in Washington and Oslo, agrees. “Orban, with his vociferous hostility to the EU – which he simply calls ‘Brussels’ – has become most unpopular among his colleagues… At the upcoming EU summit Hungary’s policies will be severely criticised,” Jeszenszky tells BIRN.
Playing the Trump card
As of late Monday afternoon, no draft agenda had been released for either meeting – despite such documents typically being available seven to ten days in advance. The lack of information may have reflected either, the Hungarian government’s generally restrictive approach to communication or, uncertainty for the hosts’ regarding how to populate the program.
But then on Monday evening, Zoltan Kovacs, the government’s spokesperson, posted on X more details about the EPC meeting, which will begin with a plenary session, followed by discussions on two major issues: migration and economic security. “In the migration session, we’ll address all aspects of illegal immigration, while the economic panel will examine the interconnectedness of energy, transport, IT, and global trade – key pillars of European security and prosperity,” Kovacs posted.
Orban’s ultimate approach to both meetings will depend significantly on the outcome of the US election on Tuesday.
As previously reported by BIRN, Orban is understood to have extended an invitation to Donald Trump (still only a candidate) to address EU leaders either online or in person. Hungary’s prime minister has also made no attempt to disguise his support for the Republican nominee. “We will open several bottles of champagne if Trump comes back,” he told journalists in Strasbourg following his bruising encounter with von der Leyen on October 9.
Orban can be expected to steer the meetings in one of two possible directions, depending on the outcome of the US vote. If Trump is victorious, he’s likely to initiate a ‘grand strategy’ discussion regarding Europe’s positioning vis-à-vis the US and the Russia-Ukraine war. In case of a Kamala Harris win, however, he’ll likely keep discussion more narrowly focused on the priorities of Hungary’s presidency like “stemming illegal immigration” and “promoting a farmer-oriented EU agricultural policy”.
In theory, Orban could expect some support from other leaders on such issues given that attitudes both to migration and the implications of the Green New Deal have hardened considerably of late. Other governments, including those of Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, advocate tougher border controls. Yet for these governments Hungary is unlikely to be regarded as an honest broker.
“No EU member state favours illegal migration, but Hungary pretends as if that were the case, causing irritation. Actual progress at the meeting is highly unlikely,” predicts Jeszenszky.
Betting on the US election is a high stakes gamble given it’s on a knife-edge. The latest polls put Trump and Harris neck and neck, both nationally and in the crucial swing states that will determine which candidate gains a majority in the electoral college.
According to Garvan Walshe, formerly a foreign policy advisor to the UK’s Conservative Party and now a visiting fellow at the CEU Democracy Institute in Budapest, “If Trump wins, Orban will use it as a moment of triumph to position himself as the one European who can command Trump’s ear”.
Conversely, in the event of a Harris victory, Walshe thinks that Orban “will struggle not to be alone at his own party”.
