Eurasia Press & News
When the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the world watched with bated breath. Would this radical regime, after two decades of insurgency, succeed in transforming itself from a militant force to a functioning government? The answer is becoming increasingly clear: the Taliban’s fragile grip on power is unraveling, and the cracks are too deep to ignore.
In his recent article, “Taliban’s Internal Power Struggle: A Regime on the Brink,” Matin Bek in The Cipher highlights a startling reality: the Taliban are in the midst of a slow-motion collapse, driven by profound internal fractures, economic mismanagement, and failed governance. Beneath the carefully cultivated image of unity, multiple factions within the Taliban are engaged in a high-stakes power struggle, each vying for control of a regime that has proven incapable of stabilizing the country.
On the surface, the primary divide appears to be between the factions in Kabul and Kandahar, the two symbolic capitals of the Taliban’s rule. However, this is a far too simplistic view of the situation. The true fractures go deeper and are rooted in ethnic, tribal, and ideological fault lines. The most significant divide lies within the leadership itself, where figures like Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada struggle to maintain control over a movement increasingly splintered by identity-based factionalism. Unlike his predecessor Mullah Omar, Akhundzada has neither the charisma nor the leadership capacity to unify the diverse elements of the Taliban. His reliance on the Noorzai tribe has only fueled discontent, alienating other factions and reinforcing the perception that his leadership is more fragile than it appears.
Despite three years in power, the Taliban have failed to transition from an insurgency to a functioning government. Instead of providing the stability and economic growth that many Afghans had hoped for, they have monopolized the country’s resources, most notably the lucrative mining sector. Figures like Haji Bashir Noorzai, a key player in the Taliban’s economic network, have further entrenched their power, but the broader Afghan population is paying the price. Economic mismanagement is at the heart of the regime’s dysfunction. Inflation is rising, unemployment is rampant, and a once-dependent economy is now in freefall. The Taliban’s reliance on U.S. financial aid to prop up their rule has only deepened Afghanistan’s vulnerability, especially as international conversations about halting that aid gain traction.
But the Taliban’s failure is not just economic. Their governance has alienated the international community, and their rejection of diplomacy and international legitimacy has left Afghanistan isolated. The Taliban’s extreme social policies—particularly their insistence on gender apartheid—have led to widespread condemnation, undermining any hope of achieving diplomatic recognition. The goodwill the Taliban once enjoyed during the Doha process has evaporated, and now their rule is largely defined by isolation.
Perhaps the most telling sign of the Taliban’s instability is the rising internal discontent. Recently, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for several senior Taliban leaders, including Akhundzada. This legal challenge has provided an opportunity for rival factions within the movement to further undermine his authority. The prospect of criminal prosecution has eroded Akhundzada’s power, leading some commanders to question his leadership and fueling divisions within the Taliban. This growing disunity signals that the Taliban’s days may be numbered.
To accelerate the regime’s decline, the international community must act strategically. The ICC warrant is a critical tool in delegitimizing the Taliban’s rule, and it should be used to drive deeper wedges between the factions vying for control. Diplomatic and legal pressure must be sustained, ensuring that the Taliban’s international isolation continues to grow. The United States, in particular, has an important role to play. Instead of providing direct aid to the Taliban, the U.S. should restructure its assistance to bypass the regime and deliver support directly to the Afghan people. This would weaken the Taliban’s financial grip on power and expose the true extent of their governance failures.
A more nuanced approach is also needed in dealing with Afghanistan’s opposition forces. While the Taliban remain entrenched in Kabul and Kandahar, other groups—many of them tribal and ethnic-based—are gaining momentum. The U.S. and its allies should engage with these opposition groups strategically, fostering internal pressure on the Taliban. This engagement could influence elements within the Taliban to shift toward a more pragmatic governance model, a necessary step for their survival. Encouraging division within the Taliban could force elements of the movement to seek a more pragmatic governance model, one that might help to address Afghanistan’s dire needs while undermining the Taliban’s claim to unchallenged rule.
The road ahead for Afghanistan is long and uncertain, but one thing is clear: the Taliban are teetering on the edge of collapse. By capitalizing on their internal divisions, exploiting diplomatic opportunities, and sustaining pressure on their leadership, the international community can help accelerate the process. The question is no longer whether the Taliban will fracture—it’s how soon their own internal divisions will send them into oblivion.
Time is running out for the Taliban.
