Recent Posts

The US is withdrawing from Iraq. Who could fill the void?

After 12 years on the ground, the last troops from the International Coalition that fought the Islamic State (IS) departed Iraq last week. It was a comparatively quiet occasion compared with the composed exit by the US in 2011 or the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. It nevertheless marks …

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Is Iran losing control of the Strait of Hormuz?

As Iran and the US take tentative steps towards a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, there may be signs that Tehran’s biggest source of leverage is being eroded. Iran has long viewed its ability to paralyse the strategic chokepoint as its own version of a nuclear bomb, a …

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Making Lebanon’s Pilot Zones Work at the Tampa Talks and Beyond

Beirut can’t just deploy troops and call it a day—it must give them the legal cover they need to actually dismantle the military capabilities that Hezbollah hides behind misused “private property” protections. The October 20-22 Israeli-Lebanese military talks at U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida, are expected to address …

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