Eurasia Press & News
According to experts and analysts from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War [ISW], the possibility of a direct war between Russia and the United States has grown very high, said in a monthly report of the institute.
The Institute for the Study of War is a think tank in the United States, founded in 2007, as one of the main analysts of political and military action in the world. Kimberly Kagan is considered the founder of the institute. The role of the institute worldwide is defined as controversial, because on the one hand the members of the institute claim to be an independent and non-partisan think tank, adequately and impartially analyzing international military-political relations. On the other hand, there are many signals that some of the reports are being used by the Washington administration to impose aggressive US foreign policy.
For this reason, in international political circles, this think tank is called the “Washington hawk.” The institute is funded by donations, has a non-profit purpose. What makes an impression, however, is that large US military companies are part of the donor financial bank that finances the work of the trust. Such companies are Raytheon, General Dynamics, DynCorp and others.
According to experts from the Institute for War Studies, Turkish military intervention and Erdogan’s aggressive policy in areas such as Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh are leading to an “inevitable” military conflict between the two countries. The institute’s report identifies this possible war in the very near future, and according to the trust’s analysts, Crimea could become the catalyst for this future war. We know that in recent weeks Erdogan has spoken aggressively about Crimea, and refused to recognize its independence, or rather its dependence on Russia. Political scientists describe these aggressive Turkish messages as crossing the red line and Russia’s “political” lull on the issue is a “time bomb”.
Military analysts say Turkey’s chances against Russia are almost nil. Ankara has neither the weapons technology nor the financial independence of the defense industry to allow Erdogan to reap any military benefits from a future conflict. However, analysts point to Ankara’s actions in the Caucasus, saying it is an attempt to destabilize Russian influence in the region and impose a new player in arms trade deals, which unofficially say have so far led about 80 percent. from Russian suppliers. The lack of a clear Russian position in the Caucasus in recent months is one of the reasons for Ankara’s aggressive action in the region, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
“Russia will seek to resolve the conflict (Nagorno-Karabakh) with force in response to Turkey’s growing military role and the United States’ growing diplomatic role,” said analysts at the Institute for War Studies.
However, military experts and political scientists working for the Institute for the Study of War say Ankara’s aggressive, radical address to Crimea does not necessarily mean that Turkey will take any military action. Their assessment is based on the fact that in such circumstances Turkey will suffer great losses. At the same time, however, Ankara owes another trump card in its hand, and this is the passage that could close the road from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
This is an important waterway not only for Turkey but also for Russia, because through it the Russian military controls the situation in Syria – in addition to large military water supplies by sea, the Russian fleet is positioned in the Mediterranean and controls jihadist terrorist organizations, which some of them support Turkish actions in Syria. The same goes for the situation in Libya, if at some point Russia decides to intervene more decisively. The Mediterranean is an important trade and military corridor that can resolve military action in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
