Several fronts on which the Turkish state has participated in recent years and months have gradually subsided. In Syria, the action is going according to plan, and attacks on Turkish convoys are already happening, although Russia is keeping Ankara’s actions short in this region.
Libya is about to solve its internal problems on its own and is likely to give up the services of third countries, in this case Turkey. Nagorno-Karabakh was defeated by the Azerbaijani army, which, with the help of Syrian mercenaries brought in with the help of Ankara and numerous weapons, fought back and tore off a piece of land.
Today, many military analysts are turning their attention to a quieter but still active zone of hostilities – Donbass. For several days now, various Asian, Caucasian and Balkan media outlets have said that Turkey is ready to help Ukraine with the supply of new weapons, including the deployment of Turkish troops in the region. Analysts believe that at the moment Moscow is unlikely to intervene in a conflict in Donbass. Perhaps that is why military-political analysts say there is a real chance that this front will be revived with the help of Turkey and Ankara, not only to assist Ukraine, but also to help Kiev regain the currently uncontrolled Donbass.
We know that over the last year, Turkey and Ukraine have improved their relations, especially in the field of military affairs. It was not long ago when we announced that Turkey would make unmanned aerial vehicles with Ukraine. The unofficial information at the moment is that Ankara is supplying Kiev with the already popular Bayraktar TB2 earthquake drones. There is also active cooperation between the two countries in the military-strategic sphere. And possible direct intervention by Turkish troops in the region comes as signals not from anywhere, but directly from some officials in Ankara.
The situation is very similar to that in Nigorni Karabakh. Ie the Russian Federation again does not officially recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, prompting some analysts to argue that a Turkish air offensive could lead to a month of military action that ends in victory for Ukraine and Kiev resumes territorial integrity. Analysts believe that both the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the possible Donbass conflict will not allow Russia to formally intervene, as Moscow, as we have said, does not recognize the independence of these territories.
At the same time, military analysts say there is another real possibility – Ankara to assist in the Crimean territories, which could already mean a real danger to Russia.
Unlike Nagorno-Karabakh, however, Russia may not officially intervene, but it may do so unofficially, which will not be new to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy. The question in this case is not what Russia will lose if such a conflict occurs, but what it will gain after a conflict. Because wars today are not fought for the right to territory, but for the management of interests.