Turkish support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war has added a new dimension to relations between Turkey and Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. But what impact have the growing geopolitical divides and diplomatic disagreements had on Turkish-Emirati …
Read More »Yearly Archives: 2020
Troubled Waters: the Changing Security Environment in the Black Sea
NATO member states and partners in the Black Sea have entered a new strategic adaptation phase after the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent focus on territorial defense. The last six years have been a challenge in strategic adaptation to new threats and challenges in the Black Sea, an increasingly …
Read More »Nation or Religion? Iraq’s Hybrid Identity Politics
Are religious doctrinal differences primarily responsible for stoking intercommunal fear and hatred? What roles have state, sub-state, and transnational actors played in fomenting sectarian discord? And what could be done to avert sectarian violence; to foster tolerance and peaceful coexistence; and to promote reconciliation? The essays in this series tackle …
Read More »Strategic competitors in search of China: The story of Romania and Bulgaria
Romanian and Bulgarian interests have diverged on many occasions throughout history, but their outlooks have recently become more aligned. For one thing, both countries have fostered a competitive dynamic to exploit their advantageous position near the Black Sea, or to join the EU and the Schengen Area. Their narratives regarding …
Read More »The Syrian Regime’s Combat Losses in Spring 2020, and What Lies Ahead
After a brief but deadly Turkish offensive in Idlib, a new phase of the Syria war began on March 5 with the signing of a Turkish-Russian cease-fire deal. Reported deaths dropped drastically following the cease-fire, and this spring has been defined by the slow attrition of pro-regime forces due to …
Read More »Danger: Iran's Arms Embargo About to Expire
Who will benefit from lifting the arms embargo? Russia and China. They would most likely be the preferred weapons exporters to Iran. With prospects for multi-billion dollar deals, Moscow and Beijing would doubtless be delighted to sell weapons to Iran.
Read More »Turkish jets strike Kurdish PKK positions close to refugee camps in Iraq
Jets from Turkey carried out cross-border airstrikes on Monday targeting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the Turkish Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, announced Turkish authorities.
Read More »Trump at West Point: Un-Policing the World
Donald Trump claims to be the law-and-order president of the United States. There does not seem much sign of this as the stitching of the Republic gets undone. Protestors have been given a considerable roughing up across several states; police forces are in retreat before proposals of defunding while protocols …
Read More »Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer
Context: Turkey’s conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – recognised as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU – continues in south-eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. In northern Syria, Ankara and the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the People’s Protection Forces (YPG), remain pitted against each other. On …
Read More »Iran’s New Parliament Heralds Conservative Consolidation
Conservatives won big in Iran’s February legislative election. Disqualification of rivals, low turnout and coordination among factions may portend their victory in the 2021 presidential contest as well. Should an opportunity arise to reduce U.S.-Iranian tensions between now and then, it should be seized.
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