Eurasia Press & News
NATO’s Weakness Invites Russian Aggression
“Democracy is when the indigent, and not the men of property, are the rulers.” -Artistotle
In September, we ran a story about the think tank, RAND, and their war game after an action that essentially proved NATO, like a pearl of wisdom in Congress, is powerless against Russia if they were to take any military action towards Europe.
Without adequate ground forces to slow the attack’s momentum, there was no way for NATO to halt the Russian assault.
As Rand put it in their report, “The outcome was, bluntly, a disaster for NATO.” -From SOFREP’s September article on Russia and NATO.
It is unlikely Putin would want to manage an invasion of western Europe. However, it’s certainly possible that he could look at a paper-tiger like NATO and decide he could do just about anything he wanted to in Ukraine and there is not much NATO can do about it.
Biden also recently signaled he has no appetite for conflict after the disastrous ending to the 20-year American occupation of Afghanistan, and he’s no stranger to Russian aggression when acting Vice President. He saw Obama was all bark and no bite on Russia.
Obama issued a harsh warning to Putin, “Keep your troops out of Ukraine, or face harsh economic reprisals.” Two weeks later, Russian Special Operations Forces took Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula as its own.
If Russia Invades Ukraine, it’s a Revolution
I’ve visited Ukraine over half a dozen times during the last six years, mostly the capital Kyiv. We have used a Ukrainian marketing agency, and I developed a friendship with the Ukrainian owner who also has family in Russia.
Most Ukrainians I know also speak fluent Russian and have some family ties to Russia. It’s complicated than this but think of the ties the American people have with Canadians. And while I think taking over Ukraine would be a tap in putt for Putin, it’s the “What next?” that would likely give Russian analysts pause.
Ukraine, especially the youth, have tasted freedom and democracy, and both are thriving in the country(I know, there is a lot of corruption too. We have that here as well) Ukrainians enjoy relatively easy travel in and around the European Union, along with a robust tech start-up community in the country. Take that away, and you’re sure to have a Gen Z Revolution on your hands. This would be their second for their generation if you count 2014’s Euromaidan Revolution where they actually toppled the government.
Summary
Russia, China, and Iran will grow more emboldened in 2022 because it’s no secret that America has benched itself in the game as a global power.
Biden’s administration has no appetite for conflict abroad with economic, political, and social difficulties at home. On top of all that, the U.S. Department of Defense has its shoes worn down to the soles with its feet sticking through and what is sure to be a demoralized environment after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle.
China continues to execute the long game with its global domination strategy. Xi is patiently bringing Taiwan and Hong Kong back into the red fold.
Iran looks to gain nuclear weapons capability soon, a direct threat to Israel and a longtime state sponsor of terrorism things will heat up soon.
Putin looks to solidify his own legacy and will continue to outmaneuver Biden in the short term with an eye towards Ukraine and weakening NATO.
Now India itself faces an increased risk of domestic terrorism imported from Afghanistan and a Taliban that now controls a $90B stockpile of American weapons.
There are challenging times ahead for America, but SOFREP will be here to report on all that is looming on the geopolitical horizon. We appreciate your support for veteran-operated news.
