Ukraine Conlfict Risk Alert

Amid growing concerns over potential Russian offensive, hostilities continued in Donbas conflict zone despite restoration of July 2020 ceasefire. Fighting and shelling continued along Donbas contact line. Ukrainian military said three of its servicemen were killed in combat during month, while Russian-backed forces reported four fighters killed. Explosion in govt-controlled Krasnohorivka town located at contact line in Donetsk region 1 Dec injured civilian. Civilian 23 Dec sustained shrapnel injuries in non-govt-controlled Oleksandrivka locality near Donetsk. Ukraine and Russia 22 Dec negotiated restoration of July 2020 ceasefire agreement; fighting subsequently persisted, while sides did not agree on opening of civilian crossings. Head of Office of Ukraine’s President Andriy Yermak 21 Dec said Kyiv had shared ten-step plan with Normandy Four countries and U.S. to unblock peace process; Russian media outlet Kommersant 24 Dec published plan, which provided for ceasefire, opening of checkpoints, prisoners’ swap, negotiation of draft laws on special status, amnesty, decentralisation and setting special economic zone. According to 17 Dec U.S. media reports citing U.S. intelligence officials, Russia continued to amass troops near Ukraine. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov 22 Dec said over 120,000 Russian troops are within 200km of Ukrainian border. Russian foreign ministry 17 Dec published proposals to legally guarantee against NATO’s eastward expansion, including ruling out Ukraine’s membership; proposals suggest banning any NATO military deployments on territory of states that were not NATO members in May 1997. Russian President Putin 21 Dec said Russia’s proposals are no ultimatum, but stressed that Russia has nowhere to retreat over Ukraine; while talking about possible invasion, Putin said Moscow’s actions will depend “on unconditional guarantees for Russia’s security”. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov 31 Dec warned West over “aggressive line” in Ukraine crisis, said Moscow may be forced to “eliminate unacceptable threats to our security” (see Russia -U.S.). Russia 25 Dec announced more than 10,000 troops finished month-long drills near Ukraine. President Zelensky 21 Dec said govt seeks clear timeline in 2022 for eventual NATO membership, describing years of waiting as “unacceptable”. State Investigation Bureau 20 Dec charged former President Petro Poroshenko with state treason and financing of terrorism.