Houthi Attacks Could Derail UAE-Iran Diplomacy

A series of deadly explosions in Abu Dhabi, the normally placid capital of the United Arab Emirates, has created a strategic quandary for the UAE government. Its leaders are in the midst of a major diplomatic reinvention, seeking to develop good relations with all of their regional neighbors, including, notably, Iran. The recent attacks, which were carried out by Houthi rebels in Yemen, may cause the UAE to reconsider its rapprochement with Tehran, the Houthis’ chief sponsor.

The Houthis’ weapons, reportedly advanced missiles and drones, killed three people­—two Indian nationals and one Pakistani—and injured six others. The strikes targeted an area near the Abu Dhabi International Airport, as well an industrial zone close to a state-owned oil facility, whose petroleum tankers exploded in the resulting fire. The attack marks a major escalation in the Houthis’ cross-border attacks. The rebels previously hit civilian facilities in Saudi Arabia—which leads the campaign against their rebellion in Yemen—and claimed to have attacked the UAE in the past. But this is the first time the Emiratis have confirmed that they were successfully targeted.

Although the UAE vowed that the attacks would “not go unpunished,” the Houthis took responsibility for the strikes and even raised the stakes. “We advise the UAE to learn from this lesson,” a Houthi spokesman said. He explained that the rebels want the UAE to end its support of the proxy militias that continue to fight on behalf of Yemen’s government, which was ousted in a civil war that started in 2014 and later reinstated with Saudi help, despite the continuing insurgency. “Otherwise,” the spokesman warned, “the strikes will continue.” Another prominent Houthi deemed the UAE “a country made of cardboard and glass,” and threatened to attack the United States, too, if it intervenes.

The Emirates, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, withdrew its troops from Yemen in 2019, but continues to back pro-government militias within the country. These local forces, trained and armed by the UAE, recently stopped their territorial advance after the rebels made major gains in Marib province.

Now, following the direct hit on Abu Dhabi soil, the UAE needs to make a decision. The attack was a warning to the Emirates to stand back in Yemen, but that conflict is playing out in a larger regional context. It surely did not go unnoticed in Abu Dhabi that just hours after this week’s attacks, a top Houthi official met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran.

The UAE and Iran are on opposite sides of multiple disputes, including the Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry and Iran-Israel enmity. They also have a long-standing row over control of three islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Above all, the UAE has bristled at Iran’s revolutionary designs for the region and its nuclear aspirations. But after years of friction, they have been seeking to reset relations.

The question now is whether the UAE will continue its diplomatic reconciliation with Iran even as Tehran’s proxy launches attacks on Emirati soil, or if the escalated violence will endanger efforts to normalize the relationship.

The Houthis’ attack was a warning to the Emirates to stand back in Yemen, but that conflict is playing out in a larger regional context.

Without a doubt, the blasts in the heart of the Emirates could have produced many more casualties and far worse damage, with lasting consequences. A more violent outcome might have sent shockwaves through the oil industry and shattered Abu Dhabi’s image as a stable and safe place to do business.

Still, international reaction was swift, amid fears of growing regional instability in what remains a key strategic choke point for oil and gas­. As oil prices surged to seven-year highs, the UAE’s allies, including the United States, expressed their support for Abu Dhabi. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken phoned his Emirati counterpart, while White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, issued a statement declaring that the U.S. commitment’s to UAE security is “unwavering” and promising to work with the UAE and others to hold the Houthis accountable.

Israel, for its part, offered not only condolences, but also security and intelligence support. Pointedly, Saudi Arabia’s deputy defense minister, Khalid bin Salman—brother of the country’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman—focused on Iran’s role. He wrote on Twitter, “The terrorist attack by the Iran backed Houthis against [the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] & the UAE represents a threat to our regional security.” The rebels, he added, “remain hostage to their regional backer,” Iran, which bin Salman claimed is manipulating regional security as a “negotiating card.” His remarks seemed to reference speculations that Iran is seeking to strengthen its hand in nuclear talks with the West by showing its power in the Gulf region.

Finally, in Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition responded to the UAE attacks by raining missiles down on Sanaa, Yemen’s capital—the heaviest bombardment in years—killing 12 people. But it’s unlikely that the UAE now considers the matter closed, or the accounts settled.

As they ponder their next move, Abu Dhabi’s rulers will have to choose whether to look the other way on Iran’s role in Yemen and carry on as if the Houthis acted alone, or to reconsider the carefully choreographed series of moves that have brought the UAE closer to Iran over the past few months.

The UAE, admiringly dubbed “little Sparta” by former U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis in acknowledgment of how its small size belies its military prowess, has been working to refocus its attention on economic growth and diversification, rather than relying solely on oil. To do that, it has sought stability and improved relations with regional rivals and foes over the past couple of years. It established surprisingly warm relations with Israel in 2020, has reconciled with Qatar after years of dispute and is steadily improving ties with Turkey.

Then there’s Iran. Just a month ago, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, a top adviser to de facto Emirati ruler Mohamed bin Zayed, visited Tehran. There, he met with President Ebrahim Raisi and presented him with an invitation from Emirati President Khalifa bin Zayed to visit the UAE.

The gesture was historic. After all, the last time an Iranian president visited the UAE was 15 years ago. But now, with Abu Dhabi snuffing out the smoldering remains of installations bombed by Iran’s Yemeni allies, it remains to be seen if those diplomatic efforts will continue apace.