Eurasia Press & News
Saudi-Israeli normalization and regional defense pacts may seem a long way off, but several historic breakthroughs could still happen when Biden visits the Middle East this week
Ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s landmark visit to the Middle East this week, there is much talk about potential steps toward normalization between the two stops on his trip: Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Biden will be the first U.S. president to fly directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia – a flight he describes as “a small symbol of the budding relations and steps toward normalization between Israel and the Arab world, which my administration is working to deepen and expand.”
Yet despite highly telegraphed suggestions of progress – particularly over the creation of a regional defense network to combat Iran and its proxies – U.S. and Israeli officials are similarly cautious about overstating the inevitability of such developments, tempering expectations on both the timeline and scale of steps along the way.
The Biden administration has discussed potential Saudi-Israeli normalization since it began its rapprochement process with Riyadh last year. Saudi officials provided their U.S. counterparts with a list of prerequisite steps, including improved bilateral U.S.-Saudi relations.
With Biden’s visit signifying what amounts to a full 180 from his campaign promise of making Saudi Arabia a pariah state over its human rights record (following Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sanctioning of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018), the next steps on the path toward normalization concern Israel and Saudi Arabia – albeit with significant U.S. mediation.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides confirmed to the Haaretz Weekly podcast last week that full normalization is not in the offing in the immediate future. Furthermore, Israeli officials have expressed skepticism about the imminent formation of a regional defense pact between Israel and Arab states that would connect air defense systems to combat Iranian drone and missile attacks across the Middle East, citing the complexity of forming such an alliance and internal disputes within Israel regarding its effectiveness.
The deals more likely to occur, which would by all accounts be a significant step, concern a potential U.S.-mediated diplomatic deal involving Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt that would finalize the transfer of two islands in the Red Sea from Egyptian to Saudi control, as first reported in Axios last May.
Saudi Arabia had control of both the Tiran and Sanafir islands until 1950, when Riyadh handed them over to Cairo for fear that Israel would seize them. Israel did capture the islands in 1967 during the Six-Day War, but returned them to Egypt in 1982 as part of its withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula. In 2017, Egypt and Saudi Arabia agreed that the islands would be returned to Riyadh – a move that was approved by the Egyptian parliament and Supreme Court. Due to the terms of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, it also required Israeli approval.
Israel provided tacit approval, pending an Egyptian-Saudi agreement to allow U.S.-led multinational observers to continue their oversight of the islands while ensuring freedom of navigation for vessels en route to Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat. That agreement has been stuck for the past four years as final status issues have remained unresolved.
The deal, which the United States has been pushing to finalize ahead of the president’s visit that begins Wednesday, is particularly complex due to the countries’ lack of official ties.
A deal on the islands could potentially lead to the opening of Saudi airspace to all flights from Israel, significantly cutting flight times to destinations such as Thailand and India (as first reported by Bloomberg). Gulf Air, Emirates and Israeli airlines are currently permitted to use Saudi airspace for Dubai-Tel Aviv and Manama-Tel Aviv routes, but Israel is restricted from using Saudi airspace for other commercial flights.
It would also potentially lead to Saudi Arabia permitting direct charter flights from Israel for Muslims seeking to make pilgrimage in the kingdom.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid said last month that talk of a deal to expand Israeli access to Saudi airspace was “not without some basis,” while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed said in March that “we do not view Israel as an enemy, but rather as a potential ally in the many interests that we can pursue together. But some issues must be resolved before we can reach that.”
