Eurasia Press & News
Russia withdrew from the deal two months ago after claiming the West was not keeping its side of the bargain by allowing for greater Russian agricultural exports.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to persuade Russia’s Vladimir Putin to return to a critical Black Sea grain deal Monday after meeting with the Russian leader in the Black Sea port of Sochi, with both leaders confirming they were working on a separate scheme to send grain to the neediest African countries with financial support from Qatar.
The outcome dealt a blow to US-led efforts to prioritize Ukrainian grain sales securely via the Black Sea, potentially leaving Ukraine without the means to store unsold supplies.
Speaking at a news conference after the talks, Putin said he was ready to revive the previous deal but only if Russia’s terms were met. Russia argues that the deal it brokered with the United Nations in parallel to another that was brokered between Turkey, the UN and Ukraine in July 2022 was not fairly implemented. Russia said that its own agricultural exports were impeded and is particularly incensed that it was unable to export ammonia that is used to produce fertilizers.
Russia also says that continued restrictions on Russia’s access to the SWIFT financial transaction system and the insurance of its ships had also hindered shipments.
Erdogan appeared to endorse Putin, saying, “We believe that the initiative should be continued by correcting the shortcomings.”
Not only that, Erdogan took a swipe at Ukraine, saying it needed to be less obdurate with regard to the grain corridor. “As Mr. President [Putin] said, especially here in this situation, Ukraine together with Russia, in terms of joint steps, Ukraine needs to soften its approach. In particular, at the present time,” Erdogan said following his talks with Putin on Monday.
“The Black Sea corridor will serve the poorest countries to which this grain will be shipped,” he said.
Erdogan’s failure to push back against Putin’s anti-Ukraine rants, notably his claim that Kyiv had “torn up and thrown in the dustbin” a blueprint for a cease-fire brokered by Turkey in the early days of the war, will not have gone down well with Ukraine’s leaders.
Yevgeniya Gaber, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Ukrainian diplomat who served in Turkey, called the scenes from Sochi “an unfair and unpleasant picture.”
“It was saddening to see a NATO leader stand by a war criminal, listening to his lies and propaganda and disinformation around the grain deal and not reacting to that,” Gaber told Al-Monitor.
Both leaders stressed that the Qatar initiative was not intended as an alternative to the Black Sea grain initiative. It remains unclear how it will affect US- and Ukrainian-led efforts to export Ukrainian grain via Bulgarian and Romanian ports. It also remains unclear whether the Qatar scheme is a one-off or will be continued.
Russia announced July 17 that it was withdrawing from the initiative, leading to a sharp spike in world grain prices. Russia has since launched a series of attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa.
Turkey, which has played mediator since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, has been lobbying the Kremlin to rejoin the agreement that allows Ukraine to export its grain to world markets without facing attack by Russian naval ships in the Black Sea, a role that has been facilitated by its unique geographic position and its close relations with NATO and Russia alike.
The deal ensured that almost 33 million tons of crops were ferried out of Ukrainian ports under Turkish protection.
A successful outcome would have boosted Erdogan’s standing ahead of the G-20 Summit that is to be held in India Sept. 8.
Instead, Erdogan and Putin agreed to implement a separate scheme whereby they would send 1 million tons of grain to six African countries after the grain is processed into flour in Turkish plants. The grain purchase from Russia would be financed by Turkey’s close ally Qatar and given to Africans for free.
“This is a huge slap in the face for Ukraine,” said Yoruk Isik, an Istanbul-based geopolitical analyst who closely monitors the conflict. “It may be good for the Africans. But Russia will be paid money with which it can continue to finance its war against Ukraine,” Isik told Al-Monitor.
Michael Tanchum, nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute, said, “This is a big problem for Ukraine as they have been trying to sell wheat from previous years. They are not going to have enough storage and could lose crops and revenue from that.” The problem has been compounded by Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s maritime infrastructure and grain storage facilities. Ukraine says that as much as 60,000 tons of grain were incinerated in the strikes so far.
The upshot is that Ukrainian farmers will lack the means to plant new produce, potentially pushing the war-wracked nation out of the global grain trade altogether, Tanchum told Al-Monitor.
On the flip side, Africa will benefit. One of the top gripes about the existing deal was that more than half of the wheat being shipped via the Black Sea, accounting for 51% of all grain shipments, doesn’t go to the neediest nations but rather to Western countries. Ironically, alongside China and Spain, Turkey is the third-largest buyer of that wheat and is the world’s largest exporter of flour and second of pasta.
“This is a huge win for Turkey. Instead of just getting Ukrainian wheat, it will get more Russian wheat and maintain its dominant role in the wheat to bread supply chain,” Tanchum observed.
There was more than bread on the table today, as it were. Russian plans to establish an energy hub in Turkey from where it will market its natural gas was also on the table, as was Syria where the two countries have established a working relationship despite backing opposing sides in the 12-year-old conflict.
Both Erdogan and Putin spoke glowingly of economic relations, reeling off figures for the number of Russian tourists who visited Turkey this year so far and last year. Putin noted that the first unit of Turkey’s first-ever nuclear power plant being built by Russia’s Rosatom and employing over 20,000 Turkish and Russians would be coming on stream next year. The Russian leader showed no traces of stress in the aftermath of the Wagner affair, exuding health and confidence. Asked about Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, he responded that not only was it faltering, but it had failed.
