Meduza’s updated combat map Russian offensive by Avdiivka threatens to compromise Ukraine’s southern front

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments in the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates
What we knew as of 5 p.m. Moscow time (2 p.m. GMT, 10 a.m. EDT) on October 13, 2023

Having spent all summer on the defensive, the Russian army is now actively trying to regain the initiative that has long been on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

The Russian army has now resumed its offensive on the Avdiivka fortified district on the outskirts of Donetsk. It’s still unclear whether the Russian troops will succeed here. So far, they’ve managed to advance by a few hundred meters, taking heavy losses along the way. Even this limited progress, however, has already complicated the situation for Ukrainian defenders in the area. If the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) manage to advance by just a couple of miles, this will spell an imminent danger of encirclement for the Ukrainian grouping.

The AFU will likely have to draw additional reserves (mainly artillery) to Avdiivka to stop the Russian offensive. Since the Ukrainian command no longer has unencumbered reserves at its disposal, sending reinforcements to this area would mean having to tap into the resources currently dedicated to other fronts, where Ukraine has been on the offensive until now.

Avdiivka

• The Russian offensive here is about developing the gains secured last spring. In April, the RAF already tried to envelop Avdiivka, advancing both north and south of the city. That time, the AFU moved new reserves into the area, halting the offensive as a result. What they couldn’t do, however, was recapture the lost positions north and east of Avdiivka in the villages of Krasnohorivka and Vesele, which leaves Avdiivka vulnerable to being encircled. The AFU nevertheless erected new positions by the ash dump of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant — a man-made elevation of some 200 meters (or close to 660 feet) — as well as at the plant itself and by the railroad just north of the city.
• Since its spring offensive, the Russian command has replenished its units (primarily composed of former “DNR militia” troops) with newly mobilized men from Russia. It also built up a store of artillery ammunition. In addition, a large aviation fleet armed with guided glide bombs has also been engaged in the operation. Still, judging by the available footage, no further units and formations, apart from those that took part in the spring offensive, have joined the operation in this area. It’s too early, then, to call Avdiivka the main thrust of Russia’s fall campaign.
• Initially, the operation followed a familiar playbook. After a powerful artillery opening and airstrikes along the entire Avdiivka front, armored columns launched a thrust towards their first targets: the village of Severne on the southern flank of the offensive, the railroad and the village of Stepove behind it, and the coke heap on the northern flank. Judging by the available videos, these attacks have been successful.
• This formula, nevertheless, quickly revealed its downsides when applied to modern warfare. Since neither side had ever learned to disable the enemy artillery on the offensive segment, the Russian armored columns started losing equipment as soon as they started advancing to the front and then during the breakthrough, thanks to the minefields set up in their way as well as the Ukrainian artillery that couldn’t be suppressed in advance. It’s still unclear whether the Russian units will gain a foothold in Severne and by the railroad near Stepove or whether they were able to capture the coke heap towering over the battlefield.

• At any rate, there haven’t been any new attacks in the direction of Orlivka and Lastochkine, two villages along the only supply road to Avdiivka. To prepare, the Russian side would have to bring forces to the breakthrough segments, again across minefields and under hostile artillery fire. It must also prevent the adversary from bringing additional reserves for a counterattack or fortifying a new line of defense.
• Fighting by Avdiivka is closely linked to the action in the south of Ukraine, even though these two theaters are 150 kilometers (almost 100 miles) apart. By a strange coincidence, the hostile troops stationed in Orikhiv in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region and in Avdiivka near Donetsk are managed out of the same pair of headquarters, namely those of the Ukrainian operational-strategic grouping “Tavria” and the RAF’s Southern Military District. These command centers can move forces between the two theaters without appealing to the upper command for reserves. If the AFU needs to strengthen the front near Avdiivka, it’s free to tap into the forces fighting south of Orikhiv — and the Russian side is likely to be exploiting this.

Orikhiv

• In southern Ukraine, the AFU has long been bogged down in the second stage of the offensive operation. Their first objective — to break through the Russian defense line between the villages of Robotyne and Verbove — was achieved in August. However, since the Russian side transferred two airborne divisions to the site of the breakthrough, the AFU’s further progress in this area has been negligible.
• The AFU is unable to reinforce the edge of the breakthrough, south of the liberated Robotyne: The units operating there are being squeezed from the flanks and have to be supplied under enemy fire from Orikhiv in the north to the outskirts of Novoprokopivka in the south. Although Ukrainian troops managed to enter the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka, they couldn’t advance any deeper into the fortified village.
• The Ukrainian military is trying to expand the breakthrough, which requires liberating the villages of Kopani in the west and Verbove in the east. Fierce fighting in the Kopani–Novoprokopivka–Verbove triangle has been going on for more than a month, and the main goal of the offensive — access to the city of Tokmak some 15 kilometers (nine miles) south of Novoprokopivka — is looking less and less achievable in the near future. With the RAF vying for the initiative, the prospects of a continued Ukrainian offensive come winter seem dim.

Bakhmut

• After liberating the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut, the AFU ran into a new Russian defense line along the Bakhmut–Horlivka railroad. Ukrainian units managed to cross the road in a few places, but no decisive breakthrough followed.

The AFU’s Bakhmut grouping could potentially become a donor of reserves for other theaters where they are needed. This practical possibility, however, runs against President Volodymyr Zelensky’s commitment to “de-occupying Bakhmut,” which he voiced back in September.