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Some military experts believe Hamas’ attack and the scope of proposed US military assistance to Israel point to a vulnerability that is making Israel’s opponents rethink their positions.
US President Joe Biden’s brief visit to Israel in the midst of a war, his repeated statements of unequivocal support and a proposed aid package estimated at $14 billion have resonated deeply with Israelis across the political spectrum.
Even the most tenacious followers of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were left dumbstruck. For months, they had mocked Biden for his advanced age, and now they find themselves busy trying to scrub posts, tweets and statements accusing him of meddling in the government’s planned judicial overhaul by urging Netanyahu to seek broad consensus for such a controversial move.
“The president has proven his commitment to Israel’s security not only in words, but also in deeds,” a senior Israeli war cabinet official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “In addition to the two aircraft carriers [deployed to the Mediterranean] and his visit to Israel, he will pass an unprecedented security aid package in Congress that will include means never before provided to us by the United States and will enable us to deal with the most difficult threats and challenges as well as greatly enhance our ability to conduct a prolonged military campaign.”
The Americans are planning to fill Israel’s arsenals with ammunition of all kinds, especially smart bombs and Iron Dome anti-missile interceptors, to prepare for the coming weeks and months and avoid having to mount an emergency airlift if war breaks out with Hezbollah in addition to fighting Hamas.
The Americans have also expressed willingness to supply Israel with bunker-busting bombs of the most advanced type. While Israel currently lacks the means to deliver such munitions, it plans to refit some of its military cargo planes for the task.
“This will allow Israel to reach even the deepest bunkers, and this must be known by both the Hamas leadership in Gaza and the man sitting in the bunker in Beirut,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor, speaking on condition of anonymity and referring in the latter instance to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Deterrence weakened?
While Israelis are clearly thrilled that the military’s wish list is being fulfilled, there is a flip side to this bounty.
“Until now, no one in the Middle East thought that Israel needed American protection,” said the senior Israeli security source. “We have always been perceived as the most powerful country in the neighborhood, one that does not need assistance for self-defense, but on the contrary, one whose power far eclipses the aggregate strength of all its neighbors.”
The senior security source went on to note that Arab countries have signed peace agreements with Israel over the years — Egypt in the late 1970s, Jordan in the 1990s, and Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates in 2020 — only after concluding that Israel could not be defeated militarily. He then added, “Now, this conclusion is being undermined, and Israel’s enemies are recalculating their course.”
A former Israeli military source described Israel’s predicament in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in similar terms.
“Until now, we were the strongest bully in the neighborhood and suddenly we are a kid who gets beaten up by the neighborhood thugs and calls for his older brother to come help him,” he said. “In terms of Israel’s image and its medium- and long-term deterrence, this is a destructive process. That is why Israel must come out of the Gaza campaign with a clear victory, if possible, a knockout. Any other outcome, not to mention a draw of the kind in which the previous rounds of fighting ended, will set the timer for more bloodshed.”
Despite these concerns, no one in Israel’s leadership has considered asking the Americans to turn their aircraft carriers and cargo planes around or thought to urge Biden and his top lieutenants — Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin — to stay away.
“Right now, we are in an existential war,” a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor, on the condition of anonymity. “We don’t have the privilege of macho posturing. It is clear that none of Israel’s enemies, nor all of them combined, can defeat the IDF on the ground or in the air.”
Nonetheless, he added, Israel had been shocked to the core by Hamas’ onslaught, when masses of Palestinians broke into southern communities, murdering civilians, burning and looting homes, and abusing women and children. The specter of a similarly horrific attack by Hezbollah in the north is clearly one of Israel’s greatest fears. “If that happens, the gates of hell will open for everyone,” the military source said. “We must not reach this situation.”
Hezbollah’s intentions uncertain
The uncertainty surrounding Nasrallah’s intentions and Israel’s posture are being discussed extensively by members of the government’s (larger) diplomatic-security cabinet and the newly formed (smaller) war cabinet consisting of Netanyahu, his close aide and strategic affairs minister, Ron Dermer, and three retired generals — Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, opposition lawmakers and leaders of the national Unity party, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Quite a few of the diplomatic-security cabinet, which includes nationalist hardliners, believe the war against Hamas should be expanded to include Iran-backed Hezbollah.
“If we are already in bomb shelters for weeks or even months, if we have already paid a heavy price in blood on the home front, we must take advantage of the opportunity and restore our deterrence vis-a-vis Nasrallah,” a member of the diplomatic-defense cabinet told Al-Monitor.
“True, when it comes to Hezbollah, Israel cannot destroy the organization as it plans to do with Hamas, but it is certainly possible to redefine the rules of the game and renew the Israeli deterrence that was achieved after the destruction of Beirut’s Dahiya quarter in the Second Lebanon War, in 2006,” he said.
This, however, is a minority opinion. Almost all of Israel’s top decision-makers prefer to focus efforts on dealing with Hamas in the south and keeping Hezbollah’s persistent provocations on a back burner.
As a precaution, the military has nonetheless massed several combat divisions in the north, including a significant part of its armor, which is less needed in Gaza’s densely populated urban area, which the IDF plans to invade.
“Our current assessment is that Nasrallah wants to harass, provoke and hurt us, but doesn’t want to get into an all-out war,” a senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. “But we must not forget that our assessments have not been entirely accurate lately. Just as we thought Hamas was deterred and was only seeking economic improvement for Gaza, there may also be something related to Hezbollah and Iran that we have not identified.”
