Eurasia Press & News
Diplomats and experts say Erdogan’s response to Hamas’ attack on Israel and its aftermath have seriously undermined Turkey’s international position.
It did not take long for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to abandon his initially cautious tone over the Gaza conflict and revert to a staunchly pro-Hamas and blisteringly anti-Israel position.
The shift comes as Turkey tries to improve ties with key Western and regional states for a host of reasons, not the least being to attract desperately needed foreign capital to overcome its acute economic crisis. Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has for months been on tour of capitals as part of the campaign.
Erdogan’s harsh anti-Western rhetoric and his attacks on Israel are expected to negatively impact these efforts by reviving doubts about the reliability of his administration.
Goals and obstacles
Ankara has been engaged in sensitive talks with Washington over the purchase of F-16 fighter jets, but the sale is being blocked by Congress, where antipathy for Erdogan’s domestic and international policies runs high. Some headway had recently been made following involvement by the White House to convince legislators to endorse this sale.
Erdogan has also been seeking ways to revive ties with the European Union, dormant for years over the undemocratic steps taken by Ankara at home and over its deteriorating human rights record.
Addressing the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) parliamentary group on Oct. 25, Erdogan characterized Israel’s current operation in Gaza as “one of the bloodiest and most savage attacks in history.”
“Hamas is not a terrorist organization,” he said, but a “mujahideen liberation group struggling to protect its people and lands.” Erdogan also chided the West over its unconditional support for Israel’s unrelenting retaliation against Hamas’ brutal surprise attack into southern Israel on Oct. 7.
“It’s time to speak out against those contemptible quarters that have turned their backs on the vile killing of hundreds of children and women,” Erdogan said, not mincing his words.
Three days later, speaking at a large pro-Gaza rally organized by the AKP in Istanbul, Erdogan intensified the tone of his rhetoric against the West.
“Yesterday they were at each others’ throats, killing Jews in gas chambers and wiping cities off the map with atom bombs,” Erdogan said, referring to World War II. “We see the same mentality in Gaza today.”
He added, “Turkey will actively work to see Israel declared a war criminal internationally.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen wasted no time announcing the recall of Israeli diplomats from Turkey “for a new assessment of ties between the two countries.”
At the time of writing, Turkey had not recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv, but domestic pressure was increasing on Ankara to take such a step.
Brief thaws interrupted
Turkey and Israel’s differences over the Palestinian issue and Erdogan’s inflammatory anti-Israel rhetoric had led to more than a decade of estrangement. The Turkish President has been a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause since his premiership, with his angry exchange with Israeli President Shimon Peres in 2009 at the World Economic Forum in Davos going viral in the Arab world.
Prior to Hamas’ October attack, there had been talk of a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Turkey to discuss ways to once again deepen ties. He and Erdogan had met briefly in September during the annual UN General Assembly meeting.
Israel and Turkey had decided in 2022 to improve ties, and to that end, exchanged ambassadors. The possibility of normalization now appears dim for the foreseeable future, as does any chance that Turkey might play a mediating role in the conflict between Hamas and Israel as it had initially offered.
Meanwhile, 45 US congressional representatives, many of them members of the caucus opposing the sale of F-16s to Ankara, sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on on Oct. 26, calling on Turkey to be reprimanded.
“We write to strongly urge you to take decisive action to hold the Republic of Turkey accountable for its role in supporting and facilitating the operations of Hamas,” the letter said.
Analysts note that it would be difficult for the F-16 sale to be approved by Congress anytime soon given the current climate.
In another surprise move, Erdogan sent the protocol for Sweden’s NATO membership to parliament for ratification on Oct. 23, after holding it up for months. The about-face was generally viewed as an attempt to reduce US pressure on Turkey because of Erdogan’s position on Hamas.
The Turkish government had accused Sweden of not doing enough to rein in Kurdish anti-Turkey activities on its soil. It also expressed anger at Sweden for allowing right-wing activists to burn copies of the Quran.
Nevertheless, in a tit-for-tat over Congress’ refusal to endorse the F-16 deal, the Turkish parliament is in no hurry to endorse Sweden’s NATO membership.
Against the above backdrop, Erdogan’s offers to act as a mediator and Ankara’s calls for a cease-fire in Gaza — which Turkey, among others, would guarantee — have unsurprisingly fallen on deaf ears.
Domestic politics
Having failed to secure an international role in the Israel-Hamas war, Erdogan is now using the crisis politically at home, where sympathy for the Palestinians and contempt for Israel is widespread, analysts say.
In his address at the pro-Gaza rally, Erdogan lashed out at his domestic political opponents who view Hamas’ attack as an act of terrorism.
“There are politicians in my country . . . who say if Netanyahu is a terrorist, so is Hamas. Those who vote for them should think very hard,” Erdogan said, appearing to reveal the real reason for holding the rally.
According to foreign policy expert Barcin Yinanc, Erdogan has a pragmatic side, but also an ideological, Islamist side.
“The common denominator, however, is his opportunism,” Yinanc told Al-Monitor. “None of Erdogan’s international initiatives elicited a response. He decided, therefore, to use this opportunity to score domestic points.”
Municipal elections are scheduled nationwide for next March, and Erdogan wants to win back the big cities — starting with Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir — that he lost to the opposition in 2019. If he succeeds, it will cap off his victory in the presidential elections earlier this year and further consolidate his almost total grip on power.
In opting for this course, Erdogan seems unperturbed by the harm he may be doing to Turkey’s ties with the United States and Europe.
“[Erdogan] does not think more than six months ahead,” said Yinanc. “By that time, the elections will be over, and the situation regarding Hamas will have changed. He will likely adopt the position he believes is the most pragmatic one then.”
Former diplomats believe that key Arab states — including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates — are also unhappy with the stance Erdogan has taken. Stressing that these countries have no love for Hamas, retired ambassador Mithat Rende said the only country likely to be pleased by Erdogan’s posturing is Iran.
“How advantageous it is for Turkey to be seen in the same picture as Iran, however, is questionable,” Rende told Al-Monitor. “Hamas upset the calculations of many countries in the region, including Turkey. It killed many birds with one stone.”
Rende believes that Erdogan’s response to Hamas’ attack and its aftermath has seriously undermined Turkey’s international position.
“[Turkey] has neither any soft power nor any hard power left anymore to be able to influence anything at this stage,” he said.
