Eurasia Press & News
In today’s summary:
Due to the defense crisis in the Toretsk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred the “fire” 95th airborne assault brigade there
After months of fighting, Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the Kanal microdistrict in the east of Chasov Yar
Counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Serebryanskoye forestry area prevent the Russian Armed Forces from eliminating the bridgehead on the Black Stallion River
The fighting in Vovchansk in the north of the Kharkiv region has taken on a positional character due to mutual exhaustion
Effective Iskander strikes on Ukrainian airfields – Su-27 fighters and S-300 complex hit
“Mediazona” – the total number of people killed on the Russian side in the war as of June 2024 is estimated at 120 thousand people
The Z-environment discusses the practice of sending wounded Russian servicemen to combat zones
Germany has handed over another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine; the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now armed with four such systems
The situation at the front
This week, one of the most dangerous areas for the Ukrainian Armed Forces remained Toretsk . In particular, Russian forces managed to occupy the settlement of Shumy and reach the southern part of New York (in 1951–2021, Novgorodskoye ), advancing four kilometers. As a Ukrainian serviceman who runs the Telegram channel “Officer ✙” explains , the situation for the Russian Armed Forces is complicated by the fact that Toretsk (until 2016, Dzerzhinsk ) and its suburbs are actually a continuous agglomeration that has to be destroyed with the help of the KAB .
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing problems with the management of the attached Territorial Defense units in this area, which could potentially lead to the loss of New York and Toretsk , DeepState analysts warn . In order to stabilize the situation with the defense crisis, the Ukrainian command was forced to transfer the “fire” 95th Air Assault Brigade here . Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets believes that the command of the Russian group “Center” decided to begin offensive actions in the Toretsk direction “head-on”, which are proceeding quite successfully so far , since they did not wait for the conditions to be created for encircling the Toretsk fortified area .
At the same time, Mashovets believes , the command of the group has dispersed its forces between the Toretsk direction and the Avdeevka operational area , as a result of which the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the latter has slowed down. In general, there have been no significant changes there, apart from the capture of the villages of Sokol and Voskhod by Russian forces . At the same time, Russian forces continue to slowly advance towards the Pokrovsk – Konstantinovka highway and threaten to disrupt supplies along it if they manage to get within firing range of an ATGM , warns Ofitser ✙.
Further south, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are under threat of losing the city of Krasnogorovka in the Maryinka area , including, as Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov writes , due to the inadequacy of the commander of the 59th motorized infantry brigade, Bohdan Shevchuk, for his position. According to ” war correspondent” Yuriy Kotenok, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding positions in Krasnogorovka “with maneuverable groups ready for tactical withdrawal.” At the same time, it should be noted that the forecast of another “war correspondent” Alexander Sladkov about the capture of the city by the end of June did not come true.
In Chasovy Yar, after months of fighting, Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat from the Kanal microdistrict to the east of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal . The retreat was officially acknowledged by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which announced a withdrawal to “more protected and prepared positions.” Ukrainian sources explain the retreat by the complete destruction of the microdistrict as a result of Russian shelling and airstrikes, which made its further defense impossible – this is confirmed by UAV images . According to Mashovets , the Russians achieved success due to the introduction of all three line regiments of the 98th Airborne Division into the battle, but in order to further storm the city, the Russian Armed Forces need to secure the flanks.
To the north of the Seversky Donets River, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued successful counterattacks in the area of Serebryanskoye forestry , Yampolovka and Terny . According to Mashovets, this somewhat confused the plans of the Russian command to eliminate the Ukrainian Armed Forces bridgehead on the Cherny Zherebets River , but the enemy retained the ability to create a significant advantage in this area, so holding the front here is a problem.
The fighting in the Kharkov direction in the area of Vovchansk , according to Ukrainian military and military blogger Stanislav Bunyatov, has acquired a positional character due to the exhaustion of infantry on both sides. The advance of Ukrainian forces in the city is measured by individual high-rise buildings, while Russian troops, cut off at the Aggregate Plant , are being hit by Ukrainian high-precision munitions. At the same time, Bunyatov writes about the successful repelling of an attack by Russian armored vehicles with “tsar-barbecues” in the area of Glubokoe on another bridgehead in the north of the Kharkov region . Further west, the Russian Armed Forces attempted to enter the border village of Sotnitsky Kazachok . The Armed Forces of Ukraine report the elimination of the group, but the situation in the village remains unclear.
Sergei “Flash” Beskrestnov and Dmitry Rogozin , a few days apart, reported ( 1 , 2 ) on the use by the Russians and Ukrainians, respectively , of FPV drones operating at low frequencies, which makes “trench” electronic warfare systems ineffective in combating them. Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces are improving their “drone warfare” skills, using FPV kamikazes to destroy Ukrainian ground logistics robots and using their own ground drones to blow up enemy trenches.
Other Russian tactical methods (such as motorcycle assaults) are not as successful, as evidenced by the video showing the aftermath of the “motorcide” in the Ugledar direction . One of the reasons for Russian tactical miscalculations may be the quality of reinforcements – according to a source from the Z-channel “Two Majors”, the newly arriving “volunteers” do not know how to work with either UAVs or electronic warfare systems.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
Ukrainian air defense forces have repelled three major nighttime suicide drone strikes this week. On the night of June 29 , all 10 launched Shaheds were reportedly shot down . On July 4, the Ukrainian Air Force reported the destruction of 21 of 22 drones, with one drone hitting an infrastructure facility in the Chernihiv region , knocking out power to more than 6,000 homes. Finally, on July 5, all 32 drones were reported intercepted.
Over the course of a week, Russian forces carried out several successful strikes with Iskander missiles on Ukrainian airfields.
At least one Su-27 fighter jet was destroyed and several others were damaged at the Mirgorod airfield in the Poltava region , but no personnel were reportedly injured. An Mi-24 helicopter was also hit at the Poltava airfield – the Ukrainian side stated that no helicopters were damaged, but “it won’t last like this for long.” Another aircraft was most likely destroyed at the Dolgintsevo airfield in the Dnepropetrovsk region . Finally, two S-300 air defense missile system launchers covering the Mirgorod airfield were destroyed .
It should be noted that the results of all strikes were recorded by Russian reconnaissance drones, although the airfields are located relatively deep in the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In addition, a strike was recorded on another S-300 complex in the Odessa region , on two trains ( 1 , 2 ) with equipment (as a result of the strike on one of them in Volnyansk in the Zaporizhia region , seven civilians were killed and another 31 were injured), on a crossing in the Kharkov region , an oil depot in the Poltava region , and on the Yuzhmash missile plant in the city of Dnepr (in this case, five civilians were killed and another 53 were injured ).
The authorities of Kiev , Zaporizhia , Odessa , Dnipropetrovsk ( 1 , 2 ), Donetsk ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ) and Kharkiv regions ( 1 , 2 , 3 ) also reported civilian casualties as a result of shelling . According to the mayor of Kharkiv , in June the city was hit 22 times with UMBP D-30 munitions , glide bombs and one missile, killing six people and injuring 22 more. The CIT notes that the partial lifting of the ban on the use of Western precision weapons on internationally recognized Russian territory has made it possible to protect Kharkiv from shelling from the S-300 air defense system, and calls for permission to strike with ATACMS missiles at airfields more than 100 km from the border, from where aircraft carrying glide bombs take off.
In addition, during the week, “abnormal descents” of Russian air munitions continued in the Belgorod region . The region recorded the first fall of a three-ton FAB – 3000 air bomb with a UMPK module . By the end of the week, according to Astra’s calculations , the number of Russian air munitions that have fallen since March on the territory of Russia and the occupied regions of Ukraine reached 120 units.
Over the past week, the following strikes on targets in Russia and the occupied territories have become known:
at the metallurgical plant in the Lipetsk region;
at the “Shahedov ” warehouse in Crimea;
at an electrical substation in the Belgorod region , which resulted in power outages in the region and in the neighboring Voronezh and Kursk regions;
according to the Nebo-SVU radar in the occupied part of the Zaporizhia region;
to command posts ( 1 , 2 ) in the occupied part of the Kherson region;
at the ammunition depot in occupied Donetsk;
to the military unit of the GRU Special Forces in Stavropol Krai;
at the electrical substation and airfield in Krasnodar Krai;
for the oil depot and oil refinery in the Rostov region;
at the gunpowder factory in the Tambov region.
Russian regional authorities and occupation administrations reported civilian casualties as a result of shelling in Krasnodar Krai , Donetsk , Kherson ( 1 , 2 ), Zaporizhia , Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ). Moreover, one of the “shellings” in the latter may in fact have been caused by the fall and detonation of a Russian aerial bomb. Meanwhile, the authorities of Belgorod Oblast, following fire extinguishers, began distributing personal protective equipment and mobile fire extinguishing systems to border residents .
According to data collected by CIT volunteers, at least 217 civilians were killed and at least 1,356 were wounded in shelling of civilian infrastructure during June .
Losses
Mediazona has published an updated summary of the Russian casualty count in the war based on open source reports. The count is being conducted jointly with the BBC Russian Service and a team of volunteers. The updated list of the dead includes 58,207 people. The publication’s journalists, together with Meduza, also updated the estimate of excess mortality based on the register of inheritance cases. According to these estimates, about 120 thousand people have died in the war by June 2024. Since the beginning of the year, the losses of the Russian Armed Forces have increased by 39 thousand people, the journalists calculated. They note that the average number of deaths is increasing from 120 people per day to 200-250 people.
According to Agency. News, from October 6, 2023 to June 28, 2024, Russian troops lost 23,818 dead soldiers — 41% of the confirmed Russian losses for the entire war (57.8 thousand in total). According to Oryx , during the same period, the Russian Armed Forces lost at least 4,218 units of equipment, including 818 tanks, 1,393 infantry fighting vehicles , and 104 armored personnel carriers . During this time, according to the DeepState map, Russian troops managed to occupy an area comparable to the area of Moscow inside the Moscow Ring Road .
Analyst Naalsio updated the data on confirmed losses of equipment of the parties in the Avdiivka operational area . For the period from June 21 to 28, he recorded 30 lost units of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces and 8 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In the Kharkiv region, in the period from June 27 to July 1, the analyst counted three lost units of equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and seven of the Russian Armed Forces.
Propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova has published several posts ( 1 , 2 , 3 ) about the “systemic problem” of sending wounded servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces (in her terminology, “disabled”) to the combat zone. According to the publication “Beware, News”, reading the text on the video (which Kashevarova did not provide), Artem Sharipov was taken “to the basement ” in Zaitsevo , and since July 1 he has not been in touch with his relatives. Anastasia Kashevarova, in turn, confirmed that Sharipov was sent to the military commandant’s office in Zaitsevo . According to her, the rest of the soldiers “had their crutches taken away and are being discharged”, but in general the situation with the wounded after the intervention of the Russian Ministry of Defense was corrected only “as a distraction”, and the local command is trying to hide the untreated soldiers from inspections.
It is noteworthy that Kashevarova calls the problem “systemic,” but prudently blames it not on the president or the defense minister, but on “specific command.” Russian serviceman Svyatoslav Golikov, commenting on Kashevarova’s post, points out that the issue is not so much “individual commanders,” but rather in the peculiarities of bureaucratic procedures, the overload of military hospitals, and “excessive losses in active units.”
For our part, we note that the creation of so-called “Kalich regiments”, as far as can be judged, is a generally accepted practice, and Kashevarova is simply not familiar with the position of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Putin, according to which a new wave of mobilization to make up for the shortage of personnel is not needed , and Russian losses are five times less than Ukrainian ones. Curiously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a virtually opposite assessment in an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reporting that the ratio of losses of the Russian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine killed is 1:6.
During the 53rd exchange, civilians captured in occupied Crimea and Belarus were returned to Ukraine , some of whom fell into the hands of security forces even before the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, a total of 3,310 people were freed from Russian captivity during the “big war”. According to the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmitry Lubinets, another 14,000 Ukrainians are being illegally held in Russia.
Russian military executed 62 Ukrainian prisoners of war at the moment of surrender and 110 in places of detention, said the head of the War Department of the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Belousov. This number includes those killed in Elenovka . Currently, Ukrainian law enforcement officers are investigating 28 criminal cases on the fact of the murders of prisoners of war.
Drone operators from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade claim to have filmed the death of a Russian female assault trooper and her partner, who provided her with first aid after she was wounded.
“It makes no difference to us what gender the enemy is. The invaders must die in great agony,” Ukrainian soldiers write, commenting on the video of the battle.
Weapons and military equipment
Germany has already delivered the third Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, bringing the number of these systems in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces to four (another one was previously delivered from the United States). New American military aid packages have also contributed to strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses – the $2.2 billion package under the USAI program includes the purchase of SAMs for the Patriot air defense system and NASAMS (Russian military expert Ilya Kramnik believes that less than 1,000 missiles will be ordered ). The $150 million package under the PDA , in turn, includes missiles for the Hawk air defense system, as well as rockets for the HIMARS MLRS , artillery ammunition and anti-tank weapons.
The Netherlands has issued a license to export F-16 fighter jets, which, according to Ukrainian MP Vadym Ivchenko, will appear in Ukraine as early as July. Latvia will supply Ukraine with another 2,500 drones this month for €4 million as part of the “drone coalition.” Meanwhile, other NATO countries have reportedly agreed on €40 billion in aid to Ukraine for 2025 and are taking steps to ensure long-term aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the event of Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex supplies the National Guard with improved Novator-2 armored vehicles with electronic warfare systems and remotely controlled combat modules, manufactures “barbecues” for the Bradley IFV, and is also launching production of reconnaissance and attack UAVs in the Czech Republic. Russia may also receive drones from abroad – we are talking about launching production of Shahed analogues in China. Chinese ammunition has already appeared on the front lines – however, in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. We are talking about the very common PF-69-40 high-explosive fragmentation ammunition for RPG -7/Type 69 hand-held grenade launchers, which were most likely purchased in a third country.
In Russia, the “cannibalization” of weapons and military equipment stockpiles continues. In particular, they are dismantling the guides from the Grad launchers to produce the Tornado-G launchers, sending T-80B/BV tanks en masse to the front and for modernization, which at this rate will run out by mid-2026, and putting into service M-46 guns from the 1950s, which became possible thanks to the supply of 130-mm ammunition from the DPRK. Meanwhile, it turned out that the side screens of the modernized T-72B3M lack dynamic protection , instead, they installed improvised composite armor made of fiberglass and rubber.
