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Turkey is open to repairing ties with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad more than a decade after severing diplomatic relations with Damascus at the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. On July 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he is prepared to invite Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin — a backer of the Syrian regime — to Turkey to begin a “new process” of normalization efforts. Erdogan told Turkish media on July 7 that Ankara “will extend” the invitation to Assad “at any time.”
Throughout the Syrian civil war, Erdogan supported efforts to topple Assad, including assisting the anti-Assad Syrian National Army and Sunni Jihadist militants. Turkey also served as a transit point for fighters from abroad traveling to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkey stationed troops in northern Syria and has conducted cross-border military operations against U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria.
Expert Analysis
“Erdogan’s readiness to cut a deal with Assad shows once again that his narrow self-interest has completely displaced the concern he once claimed to have for the Syrian people. Widespread resentment of Syrian refugees within Turkey threatens Erdogan’s political standing. If Erdogan secured a meeting with Assad, it would raise hopes of Syrian refugees returning home. But the initiative is just as likely to fail as it has on previous occasions.” — David Adesnik, FDD Senior Fellow and Director of Research
“Turkey’s entire Syria policy is imploding. Since 2012, Erdogan spent his energies to first overthrow Assad, even building a coalition with al-Qaeda-affiliated Sunni jihadist groups to achieve regime change. Once he figured out that this was a pipe dream, he used the jihadist groups to undermine the Syrian Kurds’ partnership with the United States. His new project to improve ties with the Assad regime has enraged the very jihadists who were hired to overthrow Assad. Whichever way Ankara attempts to spin its Syria policy, it is nothing but an expression of strategic failure.” — Sinan Ciddi, FDD Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Turkish Interest in Syrian Reconciliation
Turkey is interested in improving relations with Assad in part to facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees who have fled to Turkey over the course of the civil war. Ankara is particularly eager to solve the refugee issue following the eruption of anti-refugee protests across Turkey on June 30. Meanwhile, Syrian officials have insisted that normalization with Turkey can only happen if Ankara removes its troops from Syrian territory. However, Ankara fears that withdrawing Turkish troops from Syria will result in a power vacuum that Syrian Kurdish militants will be keen to fill.
Assad’s Rehabilitation
With support from Iran and Russia, Assad has managed to stay in power despite more than a decade of civil war in his country. In recent years, Assad’s allies have pushed to rehabilitate the dictator despite his regime’s ongoing atrocities and involvement in the international narcotics trade. In 2022 and 2023, Moscow hosted several meetings attended by high-level defense and civilian officials from Syria, Turkey, and Iran in an effort to restore ties between Ankara and Damascus. In May 2023, the Arab League readmitted Syria after suspending Damascus in 2011.
