Eurasia Press & News
Support for Ukraine so far has been better than anticipated, but public opinion on the war is getting divided over the period. Facing domestic opposition, political leaders could find it convenient to end the conflict. Others would be pleased to return to business-as-usual: cheap Russian gas and an end to sanctions.
The major worry for Ukrainians; “How long will Western political and military support critical for its fight against Russia will continue?” Meanwhile, Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose country holds the EU’s rotating presidency recently angered other EU leaders by holding meetings with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. President Xi also visited Hungary this year.
Ukraine faces new perils. Not because of anything happening on the battlefield, but leadership changes may force Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia. According to news reports, former senior US officials met with Russia’s foreign minister to discuss potential talks to end the Ukraine war. The White House and State Department said the Biden administration did not sanction or support the secret meetings!
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was seen with his Chinese counterpart in Guangzhou-China. Kuleba stating “Ukraine is willing and prepared to conduct dialogue and negotiations with Russia.” So, on whose behest did Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba go to China? Perceptions of a stalemate lend weight to those who have suggested from early on that the war can be ended only by negotiations. But why now? And could China help end the war? Will US allow China to have a lead role in the negotiations, if they are to take place? Ukraine, on the other hand, knows what negotiations with Russia will lead to. Past experience has been grim.
Former US President Trump has chosen Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate for the Republican ticket in race to the White House. Vance wants US to attend to its own problems — not necessarily a war thousands of miles away on a different continent, even though he has said Putin was wrong to invade and that view dovetails with Trump’s stance. Trump criticized the large amount of military aid going to Ukraine. As for Ukraine’s president, Trump said, “Every time Zelenskyy comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion. The greatest salesman ever.” The fact that Trump stating that he will immediately resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict if he takes office worries Zelensky. Walking away with US aid by Zelensky from Trump will be much harder if he occupies the White House. Likely leadership changes across Europe, NATO and the US are likely to make things difficult for Zelensky’s Ukraine.
Russia is relying on fatigue and fear to weaken Western resolve that has been crucial to Ukraine’s survival so far to fight the war. To make this strategy work, Putin must persuade the Western alliances that Russia is unwilling to lose at any cost. The Ukrainians may want to continue the fighting; but for how long and some of the Western alliance members must be forced to initiate intervention to stop Ukraine to continue with this avoidable war at the first place. Ukrainian forces, however heroic, tactically clever, and increasingly better armed, cannot drive the invaders out of the country though there is also a notion that Ukraine can only win the war by driving the Russian invaders out of the country that is what President Zelensky believes a miracle, but that is near impossible.
Negotiations will lead to several advantages. One is humanitarian. The UN must intervene to save Ukrainian lives against possible Russian nuclear attacks. Putin keeps reminding of the nuclear threat. Moving the issue from the battlefield to the negotiating table also will allow the resumption of a continuous flow of grain shipments, saving the lives of those imperiled by global food shortages. And it will enable economically stressed governments to reallocate the costs of supporting Ukraine to meeting their own domestic needs—and for the US to focus its efforts to counter China’s economic and growing military threat.
Since the invasion began President Putin has never ordered Russian troops to stand down, never suggested it might pull back from occupied territory, nor backpedaled on his assertions that Ukraine’s government’s alliances are must for Russia’s security. Putin though has repeatedly been willing to negotiate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently hinted at a willingness to negotiate with Russia for the first time since the war began, suggesting that Moscow should send a delegation to the next peace summit that he hopes to hold in November.
Russia as a bigger power has the strategic initiative. It can choose to advance or take a break for months then renew to escalate. Ukraine’s only choice as the defender is to fight back or finally negotiate an Honourable deal or capitulate. Costs and risks of continued fighting have been colossal, but there are costs and risks inherent in negotiations as well.
In the face of rapidly changing domestic and international situations, Ukraine finds it increasingly difficult to sustain a long-term war of attrition. It can no longer fully rely on the US, Europe, and NATO. Following US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, it’s widely believed that US stance on the Ukraine crisis may change if Trump is back. Also, across Europe, calls advocating for reduced aid to Ukraine are growing louder as the domestic political landscape in countries like France and the UK are also undergoing rapid changes.
China and Russia are now inspiring the emergence of an alternative Multilateral World Order (MWO). Moreover, Russia and China permanent members of the UN Security Council are strong advocates of the UN endorsed ‘International Law’. The other three permanent members of the UN Security Council; the US, UK and France, while recognising the legal framework of the UN endorsed International Law, they also strongly advocate a newer political, normative concept referred to as an ‘International Rules Based Order’ (IRBO) conforming to some international values followed among nations and insist on what suits them the best. Finally, each follows what is in their interest with Veto power.
Ukraine has shown its willingness and readiness to negotiate with Russia, however, the main issue now is whether Moscow is willing to talk. West lacks influence over Russia, while Ukraine believes that India and China have a unique role in encouraging negotiations. Ukraine’s close communication with China and seeking China’s and India’s support at times is a reasonable choice. Both China and India are very close to Russia and are in a position to influence a reasonable, constructive role for a ceasefire and resumption of peace talks but the UN must initiate this dialogue to give the due global credibility.
Ukraine is Russia’s Catch 22 and so is it for the West; “Having pushed Ukraine into War, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not where to end it.”
