Military-political escalation reflects division in Syrian opposition

Disputes among opposition factions in northwestern Syria have resurfaced after months of stagnation, when the Shamiya Front, a military faction affiliated with the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), announced it was suspending its work with the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) due to a conflict with its head, Abdulrahman Mustafa.

The disagreement may not represent a fundamental shift in the nature of the relationship among these components, which have always been marred by conflicts, sometimes even escalating to military confrontations. However, the intricate relationship between political, military, and governmental factions, particularly in areas controlled by the National Army, might have repercussions for the parties involved.

The Shamiya Front faction passed the ball of discord to the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (Syrian National Coalition), the highest body in the hierarchy, responsible for appointing the head of the Interim Government, which serves as the service or governmental arm of the Coalition.

On September 4th, the Shamiya Front faction issued a statement urging the National Coalition to hold an emergency meeting to “withdraw confidence from Abdulrahman Mustafa’s government” and demanded his referral to the judiciary.
What’s the root of the dispute?

The statement from the Shamiya Front faction followed reports of a conflict that erupted between Mustafa and representatives of the faction in Gaziantep, Turkey. The meeting was convened by Turkish authorities to “find solutions to urgent problems.”

The statement leveled several accusations against Mustafa, claiming his “hostility” towards the Shamiya Front faction was unprecedented during the last meeting.

It also stated that Mustafa “deliberately insulted some revolutionary factions,” including the al-Sharqiya Factions, accusing them of “sabotage and terrorism.”

According to the statement, Mustafa launched a “torrent” of political and criminal accusations against the Shamiya Front faction, attempting to “slander it” before Turkish officials and threatening to revoke its legitimacy.

The Shamiya Front faction viewed the accusations from Mustafa as serving “his personal interests.”

As of the time this report was written, Mustafa has not commented on the claims made in the Shamiya Front’s statement.

Hours before this statement, the Interim Government issued another statement saying a meeting was held with the National Coalition, the Syrian Negotiation Commission, the Council of Tribes and Clans, and leaders of the Syrian National Army.

The meeting discussed the Syrian situation and ways to overcome the challenges it faces, according to the final statement of the meeting published by the government.

The Interim Government did not mention the presence of Turkish intelligence representatives at the meeting, although it was convened by them to discuss political developments in the region, including the opening of the Abu al-Zandeen crossing between regime-controlled areas and those controlled by the National Army, according to information obtained by Enab Baladi from an informed source via an intermediary.

In its statement, the Interim Government highlighted the importance of the Abu al-Zandeen crossing as a vital humanitarian and economic passage positively impacting the economic and humanitarian situation in the area, denying its relation to the normalization process between Turkey and the regime.
Clear escalation

While the Shamiya Front faction insists on its demands, military affairs researcher Nawar Shaaban at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies believes that it will not back down from seeking to strip the Interim Government of legitimacy unless the latter retracts certain decisions made in its meetings and addresses other contentious issues concerning the region.

Researcher Shaaban told Enab Baladi that the Shamiya Front could back down from seeking to strip Abdulrahman Mustafa’s government of legitimacy if some problematic issues with it are resolved.

Shaaban pointed out that there are supportive statements for the Shamiya Front, whether from tribal parties or others.

Several statements in Azaz, northern Aleppo, have aligned with the Shamiya Front in support of the peaceful movement against the Interim Government, which has been ongoing since last July.

These statements followed what the Shamiya Front mentioned in its own statement about Abdurrahman Mustafa attacking the leaders of the protest movement, deeming them as rebels against him.
Shamiya Front clarifies

In its statement, the Shamiya Front faction outlined its actions and demands in three points:

The government derives its legitimacy from its people and factions, and it should work to achieve and defend their demands. However, it has been deeply involved in accusing them of collaboration and sabotage, inciting against them in the manner of the regime, thus losing its legitimacy.
Freezing cooperation with Abdurrahman Mustafa’s government until a competent government that represents the Syrian people and its revolution is formed.
Demanding the National Coalition swiftly hold an emergency meeting to withdraw confidence from Abdurrahman Mustafa’s government and refer him to the judiciary for appropriate legal actions.

Sirajuddin Omar, who works in the media relations office of the Shamiya Front faction, told Enab Baladi that the group expects a “positive” response to its proposal.

He added that proposals within the National Coalition are subject to consultation, noting that the Shamiya Front sought, through its statement, to convey its demands to the Coalition, believing that the “governmental failure” led by Abdurrahman Mustafa would impact the final decision, considering the Coalition is the political umbrella for the government.

Regarding the suspension of work with the Interim Government, Omar said that the Shamiya Front has halted administrative coordination, but it continues its essential mission as a “military faction responsible for protecting the frontlines and adhering to defensive positions, obligated by our national and revolutionary duties.”

He clarified that revoking Abdurrahman Mustafa’s legitimacy means stopping administrative dealings with him and forwarding the case to the National Coalition for resolution.

Enab Baladi contacted officials in the Interim Government and four members of the National Coalition, but received no responses. The Coalition’s media office also did not answer the inquiries at the time of writing.
Opposition ruled by individual interests

The latest issue between the Shamiya Front and the Interim Government is part of a series of longstanding problems within the Syrian opposition, some of which have escalated into armed conflicts and confrontations lasting weeks.

Political affairs researcher Samir Alabdullah at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies believes that the latest conflict reflects escalation between factions, especially amid protests since last July, demanding the overthrow of leaders monopolizing opposition institutions, including the “G4 Group” and Abdurrahman Mustafa.

Alabdullah added that the escalation also appears to be a result of opposition institutions’ desire to punish the Shamiya Front for not signing the decision to open the Abu al-Zandeen crossing connecting the National Army-controlled regions with the regime in eastern Aleppo, as stipulated in a Turkish-Russian agreement.

He noted that predicting what will happen is difficult as opposition institutions are governed by individuals pursuing personal interests. Changing Abdurrahman Mustafa is complicated due to the strong Turkish support he enjoys.

On the other hand, the Shamiya Front seems unwilling to escalate amid the difficult circumstances in the region, increasing the likelihood of resorting to dialogue or negotiation through Turkish mediation to avoid escalation.

The researcher believes that the Shamiya Front’s suspension of work with the Interim Government could have tangible effects on the ground in northern Syria, especially in areas under the faction’s control, such as the Bab al-Salamah border crossing with Turkey.

Alabdullah doubted that the Turkish response would be decisive, suggesting that Turkey might de-escalate due to its close relations with Abdurrahman Mustafa and the importance of the Shamiya Front as an active military force in northern Syria.

Years ago, what is known today as the “G4 Group” was formed, including four members: Salem al-Meslet, Anas al-Abdah, Hadi al-Bahra, and Badr Jamous. Recently, Abdurrahman Mustafa was added as the head of the Interim Government due to internal disagreements within the National Coalition, creating politically conflicting factions, according to overlapping sources within the Coalition cited by Enab Baladi.

In October 2023, the Coalition reviewed the results of an investigation by its “Fact-Finding Committee” into allegations by former President Nasr al-Hariri that Abdurrahman Mustafa had made threats to force Coalition members to vote for Hadi al-Bahra.

The committee concluded that al-Hariri’s allegations were “baseless.”

Abdurrahman Mustafa denied al-Hariri’s accusations, while al-Hariri refused to testify before the committee. None of the Coalition members supported al-Hariri’s claims, leading the committee to its conclusion.

Al-Bahra stated that if Abdurrahman Mustafa’s threats were proven, he would resign from his position that he had assumed a few days earlier.

The issue ended with the announcement of the expulsion of former Coalition President Nasr al-Hariri and ex-Vice President Ruba Habboush.

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