Eurasia Press & News
Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel caused few casualties and little damage, but it marked a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East as Israeli forces battle Tehran’s militant allies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran.
At the heart of the recent escalation is the the nearly yearlong war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Palestinian officials say Israel launched air and ground operations in the territory’s southern city of Khan Younis early Wednesday, killing more than 50 people.
Israeli forces are meanwhile carrying out what they say are limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah said Wednesday that its fighters had battled troops near the border, and the Israeli military announced that eight of its soldiers, including at least one commando, had been killed in the fighting.
Here’s what to know:
Why did Iran launch missiles toward Israel?
Iran’s decision to launch some 180 missiles at Israel came after its militant allies, known as the Axis of Resistance, suffered a series of major blows in recent weeks.
Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and several of his top commanders in quick succession, indicating that Israeli intelligence has thoroughly penetrated the group. Israel has also bombed what it says are militant targets across large parts of Lebanon, killing over 1,000 people, a quarter of whom are women and children, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Iran said the missile attack was in response to the targeted killing of Nasrallah, an Iranian general killed alongside him and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas who was killed in an explosion in Tehran in July that was widely blamed on Israel.
Iran may have felt it had to respond to avoid being seen as hanging its allies out to dry. It also appears to be trying to reestablish deterrence after the unspoken rules of its long-running shadow war with Israel have crumbled.
What kind of missiles did Iran use in the attack?
Iranian state media said several types of ballistic missiles were used in the attack, including the Emad and Ghadr, as well as Iran’s new Fattah missile.
Officials last year claimed the Fattah, or “Conqueror” in Farsi, traveled as fast as 15 times the speed of sound with a range of up to 1,400 kilometers (870 miles).
Missile experts who analyzed footage of remains of missiles recovered after the attack suggested the Fattah had been used. Questions remain over how maneuverable the missile is as it comes back into the atmosphere. The more irregular the missile’s flight path, the more difficult it becomes to intercept.
The Israeli military said it intercepted many of the incoming Iranian missiles using its multitiered air defense system, though some landed in central and southern Israel and two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel. One of the missiles killed a Palestinian worker from Gaza who had been stranded in the Israeli-occupied West Bank since the start of the war.
How is Israel likely to respond?
Israel has a range of options in responding to the attack, spanning from a largely symbolic strike, like one it apparently carried out in April, to a broader air campaign targeting Iran’s infrastructure or even its controversial nuclear program.
Yoav Limor, a military correspondent for the Israel Today newspaper, said the failure of the Iranian attack to cause major casualties or damage gives Israel time to consider its response.
“Israel can stick to the eye-for-an-eye equation (as it did in April) and only hit military targets,” he wrote.
“It can also attack infrastructure targets that will hurt the Iranian regime and the Iranian economy, such as oil, gas and petrochemical facilities, in the hope that the ensuing crisis in Iran will also provoke public anger against the regime.”
Israel’s response may depend on how far the United States is willing to escalate and whether American forces will take part.
The Biden administration likely wants to send a message that will shore up American deterrence. But it might also be wary of an all-out war that could draw in American forces stationed in the region and Arab allies, and which could send oil prices soaring weeks before the U.S. presidential election.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran’s attack a “significant escalation,” and President Joe Biden said he’s in “active discussion” with aides about what the appropriate response should be.
What is the latest on Israel’s operations in Lebanon?
Hezbollah said Wednesday that its fighters clashed with Israeli troops near the border. That would mark the first ground combat since the start of the incursion.
The Israeli military said ground forces backed by airstrikes had killed militants in “close-range engagements” without saying where.
Israel said Tuesday that it had launched limited ground incursions into Lebanon to locate and destroy Hezbollah infrastructure, but there are signs that a wider offensive is planned.
It said eight Israeli soldiers had been killed in the fighting, with seven killed in two separate attacks. Earlier, Israel earlier announced that a 22-year-old captain in a commando brigade had been killed. It gave few other details.
Israel has moved thousands of troops, tanks and artillery to the border in recent days, and it has warned residents to evacuate around 50 villages and towns in a U.N.-declared buffer zone in southern Lebanon, telling them to relocate to more than 60 kilometers (37 miles) north of the border.
In its first confirmation of the incursion, the Lebanese army said Israeli forces had advanced some 400 meters (yards) across the border but withdrew “after a short period.”
The sides have continued to trade strikes in recent days, with Israeli warplanes hitting Beirut and artillery firing at targets along the border. Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets, missiles and drones into Israel since last October, when it began attacking Israel in support of the Palestinians and its Hamas allies in Gaza.
What happened in Gaza?
Palestinians say Israel launched a large air and ground operation overnight in three neighborhoods of the southern city of Khan Younis, killing more than 50 people, including women and children, according to health officials. Separate strikes in Gaza killed around two dozen Palestinians.
Israel has continued to strike what it says are militant targets in Gaza even as attention has shifted to Lebanon and Iran. Israeli forces carried out a major operation in Khan Younis earlier this year that destroyed large areas of the city, and its forces have returned to several parts of Gaza as militants have regrouped.
The regional escalation began with Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel, when Palestinian militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 250 hostage. Some 100 have not yet been released, around 65 of whom are believed to be alive.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials. They do not say how many were fighters but say women and children make up more than half of the fatalities. The air and ground campaign has devastated wide areas of the coastal enclave and displaced 90% of its population of 2.3 million people, often multiple times.
Diplomatic efforts have stalled and there is no end to the war in sight.
