Is Assad Trying to Escape Iran’s Grip?

Assad’s debt to Iran is substantial, both financially and politically, Omar Kaddour writes in al-Modon.

Recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria, including a rumoured strike on a villa linked to Hezbollah and Maher al-Assad, signal a heightened warning to the Assad regime. Israel has reportedly conveyed messages through Arab intermediaries, urging Assad not to intervene in the current conflict. While Assad’s military strength is insufficient to support Iran or Hezbollah directly, it’s clear that Tehran exercises significant influence over Syria, often acting independently of Assad’s authority.

Assad’s debt to Iran is substantial, both financially and politically, with estimates reaching $50 billion. Iran’s intervention during the Syrian conflict saved Assad, and in return, Tehran has gained control over critical sectors in Syria, including weapon supply routes to Hezbollah. Iranian influence has tightened around Assad, making it difficult for him to distance himself from Tehran’s grip.

Speculation suggests Assad may seek to break free from Iran, with rumors of possible understandings with Israel, mediated by Gulf states, about a post-Iran future. However, this hinges on the outcome of the ongoing war. If Israel neutralizes Hezbollah, Iran’s need for Syrian territory as a weapons corridor diminishes, potentially weakening Tehran’s control over Assad. On the other hand, Iran may tighten its grip on Syria, fearing the loss of its strategic influence in the region.

The broader implications of this conflict remain uncertain. A complete curtailment of Iran’s regional influence could allow Assad to reclaim some authority, but it would not drastically change Syria’s situation, given the significant areas outside Assad’s control and the persistent international sanctions. Optimistic scenarios portraying Assad as the ultimate beneficiary of regional developments often overestimate his ability to capitalize on such shifts. In reality, both Assad and his opponents remain caught in a precarious position, reliant on external forces and fate, with uncertain outcomes ahead.