SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW

Pakistan

As Pakistan gears up for the forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit scheduled for October 15 and 16 in Islamabad, in which nine full members, including China, India, Iran and Russia, are participating, stepped up insurgent violence in Balochistan has become a serious headache for the Pakistani establishment. In particular, Baloch attacks on Chinese engineers in Karachi have pushed the Government into a corner, with Beijing long pressuring Islamabad on its failure to protect Chinese projects and personnel under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

On October 11, 2024, nine soldiers were killed and another 11 sustained injuries when the Baloch Republican Army (BRA) targeted a military convoy with a remote-controlled bomb, followed by an assault with rockets and automatic weapons, in the Sughari area of Dera Bugti District in Balochistan. BRA claimed responsibility for the attack, accusing the military of shelling civilian areas in Dera Bugti’s Lanju, Sughari, and Raees Tokh regions in the preceding days. The group said its attacks were in retaliation for these military operations and warned of continued resistance.

On October 11, 2024, at least 20 coalminers and a civil armed guard were killed and seven others were injured when unidentified armed men attacked the Junaid Coal Company coal mines in the Duki District of Balochistan in the early morning. Police disclosed that the victims hailed from various regions, including Pishin, Qilla Saifullah, Zhob, Muslim Bagh, Musa Khel, Quetta, and Afghanistan. Duki District Council Chairman Khairullah Nasir, who owns the coalmine, confirmed the incident, stating that the miscreants used “hand grenades, rocket launchers and other modern weapons” in the attack. He added that the attackers also set fire to “10 coal engines and machinery”. Though no group has so far claimed responsibility for the attack, Balochistan has witnessed several attacks against labourers, primarily people from the Punjab.

On October 10, 2024, four soldiers were killed and another two sustained injuries when Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) cadres ambushed a Security Forces (SFs) unit in the Gomazi area of Tump town in the Kech District of Balochistan. BLF claimed responsibility for the attack. BLF ‘spokesperson’ Major Gwahram Baloch, stated that BLF cadres ambushed SFs as they were returning from a military operation in Tump’s mountainous regions.

On October 6, 2024, three Chinese engineers were killed while another 13 persons, including seven SF personnel sustained injuries, when the suicide squad of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Majeed Brigade, orchestrated a vehicle-borne suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers on a road near the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. The explosion damaged 12 vehicles, three of which were completely destroyed. The Chinese Embassy in Pakistan confirmed that two of its citizens were killed in the attack and another injured, amidst local casualties, who were working at the Port Qasim Electric Power Company (Private) Limited. BLA claimed responsibility for the attack, stating it was a suicide bombing carried out using a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). BLA published the picture of the suicide bomber and identified him as Shah Fahad aka Aftab. In the evening of October 7, BLA’s Jeeyand Baloch provided details of the Karachi Airport suicide attack in a comprehensive statement, claiming that the attack, conducted by the Majeed Brigade and the group’s intelligence unit ZIRAB (Zephyr Intelligence Research & Analysis Bureau), killed over five Chinese engineers and investors and injured more than twelve others. According to the BLA, at least 15 Pakistani military personnel, including four high-ranking officers, tasked with providing security for the convoy, were also killed in the attack. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch characterized the Karachi suicide bombing as a response to the “occupation, oppression, and exploitation” of Balochistan by both Pakistan and China. BLA framed the attack as a declaration that the Baloch people are resisting foreign control over their land and resources. The statement added, “No matter how powerful the enemy is, we will no longer tolerate the oppression, exploitation, and occupation of our land”.

The BLA reiterated that it had previously issued a 90-day ultimatum to China, demanding that it terminate its “illegal alliance” with Pakistan and withdraw all investments, projects, and military presence from Balochistan.

With the SCO summit due, 55 fatalities were reported in Balochistan during the last 13 days of October, including 27 civilians, 20 SF personnel and eight terrorists. The first 10 months and 13 days of the current year have already crossed the annual fatalities of the previous year. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Balochistan has recorded a total 529 terrorism-related fatalities, including 236 civilians, 161 SF personnel and 132 terrorists, in the current year (data till October 13, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, the province had recorded 378 such fatalities, including 132 civilians, 157 SF personnel and 89 terrorists. The whole of 2023 recorded 471 such fatalities, including 160 civilians, 186 SF personnel and 125 terrorists.

With 529 fatalities so far, by the end of the year, 2024 is likely to cross the highest fatalities during the last eight years, since 2016 with 636 fatalities. There were 471 fatalities in 2023, 406 in 2022, 308 in 2021, 215 in 2020, 180 in 2019, 384 in 2018, 341 in 2017 and 636 in 2016.

The long-term state policy of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings has led to a spiral of retaliatory attacks and violence by Baloch insurgents, targeting SFs and state establishments in the province. Civilians, especially members of state-backed ‘death squads’ have also been targeted. In this environment of chaos, Islamist terrorist groups have also thrived and, in some cases, even joined the Baloch groups. The major active Baloch insurgent groups include the Baloch National Army (BNA), BLA, BLF, Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA).

The growing number of attacks by the insurgent groups are substantially a retaliation to state excesses, including enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings of Baloch people by SFs and their proxies. Victims of enforced disappearances include political workers, journalists, human rights defenders, and students. According to the Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) report of December 2023, more than 7,000 persons have gone ‘missing’ from Balochistan since 2000. However, the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances formed in 2011 with the objective of tracing the missing persons and fixing responsibility on the individuals or organisations responsible for it, posted data on its website claiming that there were just 454 ‘active cases’ of enforced disappearances from Balochistan, as of October 2023.

The largest act of retribution by Baloch insurgent groups in a single day in many years, was on August 26, 2024, when BLA cadres offloaded passengers from trucks and buses in the Rarasham area of Musakhail District in the early morning and shot at them after checking their identities. At least 23 Punjabi travellers were killed. The armed men also set fire to 10 vehicles. “Vehicles travelling to and from Punjab were inspected, and individuals from Punjab were identified and shot,” Musakhail Assistant Commissioner Najeeb Kakar disclosed. As the day progressed, Balochistan recorded multiple attacks by Baloch insurgents across the province, which left at least 38 people dead, including the 23 in Musakhail.

In response, Security Forces (SFs) neutralised 21 terrorists and injured several others. BLA cadres then targeted Levies Forces and Police Stations in Mastung, Kalat, Pasni, and Suntsar, resulting in numerous casualties. Explosions and grenade attacks were reported in Sibi, Panjgur, Mastung, Turbat, Bela, and Quetta, with militants blowing up a railway track near Mastung. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement later in the day, claiming that 21 terrorists had been killed, while 14 SF personnel, including four from law enforcement agencies, were killed during ‘clearance operations’.

However, in a statement released on its official media, Hakkal, BLA announced the successful completion of its Fidayeen Operation Herof (Operation Dark Storm), claiming to have killed 130 military personnel during a series of coordinated attacks across Balochistan. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed that the group’s elite fidayeen unit, the Majeed Brigade, had “maintained control over the Bela camp for 20 hours,” during which “68 military personnel were killed and dozens more injured.”

Baloch anger against the State has been further aggravated by the systematic exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. This has resulted in periodic attacks on Chinese nationals. Since, the inception of CPEC-related projects in 2013, BLA and other Baloch groups have been increasingly targeting Chinese nationals and projects, as they believe that China, in connivance with Islamabad, is exploiting the resources of the province, while denying any benefits to the Baloch people. They believe, further, that CPEC is part of a ‘strategic design’ by China to loot resources and eliminate Pakistani, particularly Baloch, culture and identity.

The USD 65 billion CPEC is a massive series of projects that includes a network of highways, railways and energy infrastructure, spanning the entire country. CPEC is a flagship project in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

According to a Federal Interior Ministry report of May 16, 2024, 62 people working on CPEC have been killed in eight attacks across Pakistan between 2020 and 2024. Two attacks on Chinese engineers working on CPEC projects took place in Balochistan, four in Sindh and two in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Notably, BLA’s Majeed Brigade, has been behind most of the high-profile attacks on Chinese citizens working on the CPEC project.

Contrary to the Government’s official data, the number of deaths and attacks is significantly higher. According to partial data compiled from open-source reports by SATP, since July 19, 2007, at least 17 attacks directly targeting Chinese nationals have been recorded in Pakistan (12 in Balochistan, three in Sindh and two in KP), resulting in 87 deaths (data till October 13, 2024). The dead included 19 Chinese nationals, 13 Pakistani SF personnel, 42 Pakistani civilians and 13 attackers. Another, 66 persons, including six Chinese nationals, were injured in these attacks. Out of two attacks reported in KP, one attack was claimed by TTP. One attack on a Chinese national in Karachi involved the Sindhi nationalist group, the Sindh Revolutionary Army (SRA).

Blinded by Chinese money and support, instead of addressing Baloch grievances, the adamant State establishment has exclusively chosen military repression as a response to the problem. On August 22, 2024, the Government approved PKR 60 billion to carry out Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (Commitment for stability) to fight militancy in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On June 22, the Central Apex Committee on the National Action Plan (NAP), chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, launched Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. In response, the BLA-led Baloch Raj Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), an umbrella organization of Baloch ‘pro-independence’ groups, issued a statement on July 8, 2024, against Pakistan’s military campaign. In a media release, BRAS ‘spokesperson’ Baloch Khan condemned the operation as a blatant intensification of the ongoing ‘genocide’ against the Baloch people. He asserted that BRAS and its allied organizations were prepared to defend their land and people against any form of military action, promising to defeat the ‘invading’ forces.

Aimed at enhancing their capacity to secure Chinese commercial interests within Pakistan and bolster border security, the Government of Pakistan, on October 3, 2024, approved an additional budget of PKR 45 billion for the Armed Forces. The decision was made during a meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. According to the meeting details, PKR 35.4 billion will be allocated to the Army, while PKR 9.5 billion will go to the Navy. The ECC also approved an additional PKR 16 billion for the Special Security Division South, which is responsible for safeguarding CPEC.

While the Pakistani State has been planning to safe guard Chinese interest, the Baloch insurgents have succeeded in targeting Chinese personnel and infrastructure. After the recent attack on Chinese engineers on October 6 in Karachi, the BLA released a video message of Fidayeen (self-sacrificer) Shah Fahad Badini on October 10, who wass responsible for the attack. In an eight-minute video published by the BLA’s media wing, Hakkal, Shah Fahad is seen inside a vehicle, delivering what he describes as his final message. He begins by invoking a historical phrase often associated with resistance movements: “When oppression becomes law, resistance becomes a duty.” Addressing the people of China directly, Shah Fahad warns them of the Baloch people’s opposition to what he calls China’s illegal exploitation of Balochistan’s resources. He declared,

For years, you have turned a blind eye to the truth. You have tried to extract wealth from a land over which you have no moral or legal authority, and it is not your land. Your hands are not clean. By backing Pakistan’s genocide of the Baloch, you have sided with oppression. We demand that you immediately cease all exploitative projects on our land, including the illegal and destructive Gwadar port project. No amount of profit, nor the depth of the sea, will keep your investments safe from the rightful struggle of the Baloch nation. BLA is prepared to strike Chinese interests anytime and anywhere.
In the wake of each attack on Chinese nationals and projects, the Chinese Government has sought to pressurise Pakistan for the deployment of Chinese security personnel to operate inside Pakistan, to protect its interests, an option that Islamabad continues to resist, so far. This time around, the loss of confidence on Pakistani security measures is palpable, and Beijing has sent a task force to examine the threat and response, even as it has urged the authorities to step up security measures and ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and projects. The task force arrived in Islamabad on October 8 and met the heads of Pakistan’s Foreign and Interior Ministries, as well as of the Police, Armed Forces and Intelligence Services.

The growing attacks on SFs in Balochistan and the latest attack on Chinese engineers, against the backdrop of the SCO summit in Islamabad, is likely to have a twofold impact, creating fear psychosis around the Chinese involvement in natural resource projects in Balochistan, even as it impacts Pakistan’s fragile economy where it hurts most.

India

On October 10, 2024, two top cadres of the Tritiya Sammelan Prastuti Committee/Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TSPC/TPC) – a splinter group of the Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist) – Harendra Ganjhu aka Ramdas Bhokta aka Suresh Ganjhu aka Ghumeshwar Ganjhu aka Netaji, the ‘sub-zonal commander’ of the outfit, and his associate Ishwar Ganjhu aka Ghutari Ganjhu, were killed in a Police encounter in the Ganiotri Forest of Chatra District in Jharkhand. The two were involved in the ambush and killing of two Chatra District Force personnel, Sukhan Ram and Sikandar Singh, on February 7, 2024. The Police recovered an AK-47 rifle, a country-made firearm, three live AK-47 bullets, a motorcycle, and four mobile phones from the encounter spot. Harendra Ganjhu had 48 pending cases against him, lodged in various Police Stations of Chatra and Hazaribagh, while Ishwar Ganjhu had about a dozen.

On May 25, 2024, a father and son were killed by TSPC/TPC cadres at the Hindikala village in the of Kunda Police Station area of Chatra District, for being alleged ‘police informers’. The rebels barged into the home of Chhedi Birhor (48), accusing him and his son Pankaj Birhor (30) of collaborating with the Police. The victims were subjected to a severe beating before being fatally shot.

On March 10, 2024, A TSPC/TPC cadre was killed while several others were injured and three of them arrested, following an encounter with the Security Forces (SFs) in the Ureej Forest under Barkagaon Police Station limits in Hazaribagh District.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least seven fatalities, including two civilians, two SF personnel, and three TSPC/TPC cadres, have been recorded in TSPC/TPC-linked incidents of killing in Jharkhand since the beginning of 2024 (all data till October 13). During the corresponding period of 2023, as well as in the remaining period of 2023, no fatalities related to TSPC/TPC were recorded. Three fatalities (all TSPC/TPC cadres) were recorded in 2022. Significantly, since the formation of TSPC/TPC in 2002, a total of 99 TSPC/TPC-related fatalities (24 civilians, two SF personnel, and 73 TSPC/TPC cadres) have been documented.

Since the formation of TSPC/TPC in 2002, the outfit had not been found involved in the killing of any SF personnel, before the February 7, 2024, incident in which two personnel, Sikandar Singh and Sukan Ram, of the Jharkhand Police were killed and another, Aakash Singh, sustained bullet injuries in an exchange of fire between TSPC/TPC cadres and SFs in the Bairio Forest between Sadar and Basisthnagar Jori Police Station areas in the Chatra District. The security personnel were returning from an operation when they were attacked by TSPC cadres.

It bears mention that, in the October 10, 2024, encounter, SFs shot down the two cadres, Harendra Ganjhu and Ishwar Ganjhu, involved in the ambush and killing of the two Chatra District Force personnel on February 7, 2024. Reiterating that such operations would continue to keep a check on the activities of criminals, Director General of Police (DGP) Anurag Gupta, observed, on October 10, 2024,

Jharkhand was now free from extremism, and those remaining are criminals. Ganjhu was creating trouble for people from different sections of society. With the killing of Ganjhu, Chatra’s burden was reduced. I would say that those operating as extremist outfits are now criminals who have palatial houses. Those who fired upon the police team had got a befitting reply and got killed.
In their action against the TSPC/TPC, SFs had arrested at least 34 cadres in the current year (all data till October 13, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, 26 TSPC/TPC cadres were arrested. A total of 34 TSPC/TPC cadres were arrested through 2023. Since 2002, when TSPC/TPC was formed, at least 363 TSPC/TPC cadres have been arrested by the SFs.

Moreover, 11 incidents of arms and ammunitions recovery have been reported in the current year, in addition to nine such incidents reported through 2023. A total of 95 such incidents have been reported since 2002.

Meanwhile, mounting SF pressure has led to the surrender of three TSPC/TPC cadres in 2024 (data till October 13). During the corresponding period of 2023, one TSPC/TPC cadre had surrendered, and there were no further surrenders through 2023. Since 2002, at least 12 TSPC/TPC cadres have surrendered and joined the mainstream.

TSPC/TPC has been on a continuous decline. Nevertheless, the group’s disruptive activities continue to linger on, albeit at the margins.

On July 27, 2024, two coal-loading trucks were set ablaze allegedly by around 15-20 TSPC/TPC cadres at Laat village in the Tasu Panchayat (a village-level local self-government institution) under Herhanj Police Station limits in Latehar District. The TSPC cadres left a pamphlet at the incident site, threatening that ‘organizational action’ would be taken if work on coal transportation was done without meeting the group’s demands.

Indeed, earlier, had noted that TSPC/TPC activities were predominantly linked to their ‘levy’ demands and collections from businessmen, contractors, and coal traders, and the outfit is more of a criminal gang than an ideologically driven Left Wing Extremist (LWE) movement.

Taking action against a top cadre of the outfit on February 21, 2024, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) charged-sheeted Bhikhan Ganjhu, the TPC ‘zonal commander’ in connection with a 2019 case related to the interception and seizure of prohibited arms and ammunition in Purnea, Bihar, which had been smuggled into the country via the Myanmar border. The Bihar Police initially registered a First Information Report (FIR) on February 7, 2019, after the contraband of illegal weapons, including Under-Barrel Grenade Launchers (UBGLs), and a large number of 5.56 x 45 mm ammunition meant for supply to the Maoists and members of organized criminal syndicates for carrying out terror attacks in various parts of the country, was intercepted. The NIA in a statement disclosed, “Bhikhan Ganjhu was procuring arms and ammunition from his co-accused to strengthen TPC’s foothold in Jharkhand and to commit acts to spread terror and violence.”

Significantly, Bhikhan Ganjhu, was on a lookout notice by the NIA in the terror funding case related to Ashoka of Piparwar and Magadha and Amrapali coal projects at Tandwa in Chatra District. He was arrested from an unspecified location under Sadar Police Station limits in Ranchi District on March 16, 2022. A resident of Piparwar in Chatra, Bhikhan was accused of collecting ‘levy’ (extortion money) for TPC, from coal projects.

Further, on March 30, 2024, the NIA court Special Judge MK Verma rejected the bail plea of Anshish Ganjhu, who has been in jail since June 6, 2020, in connection with a 2018 NIA Terror Funding case from the Magadha and Amrapali coal project located at Tandwa in Chatra. During the hearing, the NIA told the court that the accused collected money illegally, through extortion, from the coal mining sector, for the banned TPC.

Though the SFs have significantly weakened the TSPC/TPC, lingering concerns remain, as is evident from the group’s continuing disruptive activities. Besides, six top ranking cadres remain elusive, including Brajesh Singh Ganjhu aka Gopal Singh Bhokta aka Sarkar, the ‘supremo’ of the organization, carrying a reward of INR 2.5 million on his head; Akram Ganjhu aka Akram ji aka Ravindra Ganjhu, a ‘regional committee member (RCM)’, with a reward of INR 1.5 million; Arif ji aka Shashikant aka Sudesh ji aka Suresh ji, a ‘zonal committee member (ZCM)’ carrying an INR 1 million reward; Prabhat Ganjhu aka Sudesh Ganjhu aka Sukhdev Ganjhu, a ‘special zonal member’ (SZM), with a reward of INR 500,000; Karim ji aka Gulab ji aka Gulab Ravidas, an ‘area commander’ of the organization, with a reward of INR 200,000; and Sahendra Yadav aka Naryan, a Local Guerilla Squad (LGS) member, carrying a reward of INR 100,000 on his head.

TPC/TSPC has been considerably contained, but remains a source of local disturbances, particularly in view of its criminal exploits and efforts to engineer disruptions in its area of operations. As long as the residual leadership elements remain outside the SFs’ dragnet, the outfit will remain a challenge for Jharkhand.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 7-13, 2024

Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.

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